AIADMK Struggles To Attract Allies, Gain Momentum But Desperate Final Gambit Might Be An Irresistible 'MGR-Era Deal' To Lure Congress

Former Minister and AIADMK organisation secretary D Jayakumar has repeatedly postured that parties now part of the DMK-led coalition will cross over to the front headed by his party in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Lacking a charismatic leader, weakened by the poor presence in several urban pockets, and facing a shrinking footprint in the state's southern districts due to a split in the party, AIADMK has been struggling to build a coherent strategy to recover the political ground it lost in the 2021 state assembly election. 

Though the party put up a creditable performance in 2021 state polls, defying the prediction of complete political decimation, it was evident it was facing long-term structural decline, socially and geographically.

Given its lack of ideology and organisational model, AIADMK has always struggled to function as an effective opposition party, and it has been no different in the last couple of years. The rise and rise of former IPS officer-turned-BJP leader K Annamalai, who began to emerge as the rallying point for anti-DMK forces, also began to worry the party.

Fearing it could get squeezed out in the political landscape, AIADMK general secretary and leader of opposition in the Tamil Nadu Assembly, Edappadi K Palaniswami, began making a series of moves.

Concluding that alliance with BJP is highly detrimental to the party's attempt to recover a chunk of its erstwhile voters (belonging to religious minority groups), AIADMK snapped its ties with the saffron party a few months ago.

The AIADMK leadership is said to have received 'political intelligence' from a key Congress poll strategist that BJP was set for an electoral whopping in Hindi heartland states in December assembly elections. It calculated that a resurgent Congress, emboldened by electoral triumph and soaring ambitions, could be lured to its fold by a generous offer of seats. 

Without wasting any time after breaking ties with the BJP, Palaniswami made a determined bid to woo Muslim voters. 

Palaniswami demanded that the Tamil Nadu government release 36 Muslim convicts, including 16 serving life imprisonment for their role in the 1998 Coimbatore bomb blasts, which killed 58 people and left over 200 injured.

Days later, he urged the ruling DMK government in the state to immediately provide prayer facilities to the Muslim prisoners lodged in Vellore jail. Alleging that the DMK government opened places of worship of other religions, he said that only Mosques inside the prison remain shut down.

Strategy Now Appears To Be In Tatters

With BJP sweeping three battleground states in recent assembly elections and now in a pole position to win the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, murmurs are growing within AIADMK over the timing of the decision to snap the ties with BJP. 

Several former Ministers, facing serious corruption charges, are especially upset with Palaniswami for needlessly embarking on a collision course with the BJP.

Despite DMK's governance facing severe criticism in the state, the opposition AIADMK is viewed as a failure in effectively taking on the ruling party.

The party has also failed to attract new allies, despite that being one of the stated goals of the break-up with BJP.

Given strong ideological convergence, a fairly settled seat-sharing formula, the formidable nature of the alliance and the DMK having around two years left in its tenure in the state, there are no compelling reasons for the smaller parties in DMK alliance to switch to AIADMK front.

Some of the DMK's alliance partners, like the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK), have openly stated that they will continue to be part of the alliance. The MMK also seeks a seat this time instead of merely supporting the alliance.

One key DMK ally that AIADMK hoped to lure was Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), a Dalit outfit with a significant presence in North Tamil Nadu. However, the attempts have made no headway, with VCK taking a 'more loyal than the king' political position and remaining steadfast in their allegiance to DMK.

The real worrying signal for AIADMK is that even the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) and the Puthiya Tamizhagam, which were part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Tamil Nadu, have also not stated if they would like to go with the AIADMK.

The PMK seems likely to go alone. Another potential ally for AIADMK is the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) headed by charismatic rabble rouser Seeman, who has forged an ideological path of Tamil nationalism. But NTK has so far grown by positioning as a political movement that will never ally with any Dravidian party. They are unlikely to compromise on the key differentiator.

The DMDK, whose leadership recently passed over from actor Vijayakanth to his wife Premalatha, is open to an alliance with anyone who gives them a Rajya Sabha seat.

The BJP will also likely woo some smaller parties, making it more challenging for the AIADMK.

While it is true that there is still time for some of the DMK allies to come over to the side of the AIADMK, they are all likely to strike a hard bargain. The switch may come only if the DMK gives them fewer seats than they want and the AIADMK accedes to their demands.

Many of these parties contested only 1-2 seats, and some contested on the DMK's symbol.

While the VCK and Left parties- Communist Party of India and CPI(Marxist)-contested from two each, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), Kongu Desa Makkal Katchi (KMDK), Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi (IJK) and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) contested from one seat each.

Kamal Haasan's Makkal Neethi Maiam(MNM) is also showing signs of cosying up to the DMK alliance.

The Congress, which contested nine seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, is likely to drive a harder bargain, buoyed by its wins in Karnataka and Telangana. This is where the AIADMK could come in and lure the Congress by offering it more seats than the DMK. This could be the party's last desperate gambit.

An AIADMK insider, who is privy to the thinking of Palaniswami, suggested that the party could even offer an 'MGR-era' seat deal to Congress (till the 1991 Lok Sabha elections, Congress used to contest two-thirds of the seats in Lok Sabha in alliance with AIADMK)

Despite the inability to regain political momentum or attract allies, the AIADMK leaders maintain that they have limited stakes in the 2024 parliamentary elections, and their main goal is to come to power in the state in 2026.