B Y Vijayendra's Appointment As Karnataka BJP President Is A Strategic Move Ahead Of Lok Sabha Polls — Here's Why

On Friday (10 November), the first-time Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) from Shikaripura, B Y Vijayendra, revealed a "divine opportunity" with which he was entrusted, in an X post:

Vijayendra was appointed as the tenth president of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Karnataka — a unit that has been struggling ever since its defeat at the hands of the Congress earlier this year.

Many leaders were rumoured to be in the race for the position of party chief in Karnataka, including former national general secretary C T Ravi, former deputy chief minister Dr C N Ashwath Narayan, and Minister Shobha Karandlaje.

Finally, Vijayendra's name was proposed, with no dissent visible so far.

There are interesting reasons behind the appointment. The selection was not made all of a sudden; rather, it was several weeks in the making.

Former 'Super CM'

A lawyer by profession, Vijayendra was serving as a secretary in the mid-1990s for the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha (BJYM). In 1999, he was appointed as the BJP's vice president for Bengaluru city.

With his father as the chief minister, Vijayendra was given the tough task of winning the Vokkaliga-dominated K R Pete bypoll in December 2019 — which he managed to do.

He was seen as a 'super CM', and many party leaders recall Vijayendra's dramatic entry into meetings.

Focus On Core Vote Bank

The previous assembly elections have pushed both the BJP and the Janata Dal (Secular), or JD(S), towards course correction.

In his interviews and public speeches, former chief minister H D Kumaraswamy has been candid about his mistakes and misjudgments in the past.

As a result, an alliance has been stitched between the two parties ahead of the Lok Sabha polls in 2024.

With the JD(S) aiming to secure certain Vokkaliga-dominated seats, the BJP will aim to wrestle the Lingayat votes away from the Congress.

One of the main reasons behind the Congress victory this time around was the transfer of Lingayat votes from the BJP to the Congress. Of the 46 Lingayat candidates fielded by the Congress, 37 won.

BSY Still Holds The Reins

Vijayendra's appointment indicates that the stature of his father and former state BJP head and chief minister, B S Yediyurappa, is still intact.

At a time when the party was virtually non-existent in Karnataka, leaders like Yediyurappa, K S Eshwarappa, and Ananth Kumar travelled across the state to build the party from scratch.

Without them, the party is finding it difficult to identify leaders to fill their shoes. However, Vijayendra may be the one to bring about a balance between the old guard and new in the party.

The Candidates Left Behind

Before Vijayendra's appointment, names of senior BJP leaders were making the rounds, such as Ravi, Dr Narayan, Karandlaje, and former minister V Sunil Kumar.

"C T Ravi himself could not save his seat. The BJP is practically wiped out from Chikkamagaluru, thanks to him. His loss can be directly attributed to his statements against BSY (Yediyurappa) on several occasions. There are barely 15,000 Vokkaliga voters in his constituency. Kurubas, Lingayats, and minorities voted en masse against Ravi," a source said.

While Karandlaje may have been the ideal pick, it is difficult to remove a sitting central minister. She, too, like Ravi, is not seen as one of the top community leaders among the Vokkaligas.

While Ravi is also from the Vokkaliga community, it can scarcely be said that he is the pre-eminent political leader of the community in Karnataka.

There is also this notion that the Malnad Vokkaligas find themselves lacking acceptance among the larger bloc of Vokkaliga voters, particularly in Old Mysore.

This is one of the reasons why most big leaders from the Vokkaligas belong to the Gangatkar community.

Gangatkar Vokkaliga is one of the four major sub-caste groups, the others being Reddy Vokkaliga, Morasu Vokkaliga, and Kunchitiga Vokkaliga.

A More 'Independent' Voice

Outside of Karnataka, the BJP has struggled to make inroads in southern India. Even within the state, the party faced a major crisis when Yediyurappa walked away from the BJP and formed the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP).

Today, despite bringing a balance between both the central and state leadership, leaders like Basavaraj Bommai and Nalin Kumar Kateel are seen as 'rubber stamp' politicians rather than leaders with their own standing.

Vijayendra's acceptance among the Lingayats is much higher than other leaders from the community. He is seen as a legitimate successor to Yediyurappa.

Speaking to Swarajya, highly placed sources in Karnataka BJP suggest two main reasons for the party's defeat in the recent assembly elections.

A) Yediyurappa's sudden resignation was read as an involuntary decision by the Lingayats in the state, who have been with the BJP since the beginning of his career.

Bommai did not mean the same to the community. In fact, even other Lingayat leaders like Laxman Savadi, Jagadish Shettar, and V Somanna have not been able to take over the reins from Yediyurappa.

B) The top five electorally prominent groups voted against the BJP. This includes the Scheduled Castes, Lingayats, Vokkaligas, Muslims, and Dalits.

When the majority of the electorate has voted against the party, it is left with little choice but to appoint a leader that has the blessings of at least one out of the five communities.

Lingayats are capable of influencing nearly 45-50 assembly seats in the state. Even with a swing of 5,000 to 8,000 votes, the election results can look very different from what parties aspire to see.

Why Not B Y Raghavendra?

The acceptability of B Y Raghavendra, Yediyurappa's other son and Member of Parliament from Shivamogga, is perceived to be lesser than that of Vijayendra within the community.

The reason?

Vijayendra is seen as more dynamic and accessible. The younger rank of leaders who are aspiring to grow in state and national politics find it easier to communicate with Vijayendra than other leaders in the old guard.

"Additionally, he has been winning over younger leaders by appointing them as co-directors to many businesses," the source said.

And Why Not Somanna?

These past few months, V Somanna, a seasoned Lingayat leader, has tried to take over the reins from Yediyurappa.

He has courted the party on several occasions, requesting them to consider his candidature for the post of party chief in the state. But a majority of the leaders in central and state BJP have remained hesitant.

Why?

"Because Somanna joined the party in 2009, and with the insistence and blessings of Siddaganga Mutt's Shivakumar Swamy (who is no more), he (Somanna) was made a minister in BSY's cabinet. He later switched parties and lost by-elections.

"Somanna was elected as an MLC (member of the legislative council) from the quota as a person who has contributed to 'literature'. What literature has he written?

"In 2013, he loses the election once again. In 2018, he switched seats and decides to take on M Krishnappa's son Priya Krishna and won the election. No one asked him to go to Chamarajanagara, yet he contested from there and lost the election.

"To put things in perspective, between 2009 and 2023, he has just won one election out of five," says the source, questioning Somanna's standing.

Even B L Santosh's Suggestions Sidelined?

Over the last few years, media reports have suggested tensions between Yediyurappa and BJP National General Secretary (Organisation) B L Santosh. While some reports suggest Santosh's aspirations to become the chief minister of the state, others rubbish them.

However, Vijayendra's name did not come just from his father, but was also reportedly suggested by alliance leaders like H D Kumaraswamy, who is said to have suggested Vijayendra's name to BJP chief J P Nadda and Minister for Home Affairs Amit Shah in a recent meeting held in New Delhi as the "only hope for the party" going forward.

No Growth Among Vokkaliga Leaders In BJP

"While Ashwath Narayan and Ashok are trying their best to project themselves as Vokkaliga leaders, they are simply not seen or accepted as community leaders in the heartland.

"You are also mocking the voters by stating that they are community leaders, while in reality, both of them are elected from constituencies (Malleshwaram and Padmanabhanagara) with a high presence of upper caste voters, especially Brahmins," our source tells Swarajya.

Someone To Counter D K Shivakumar

Many in the party believe that there is an urgent need for someone who can take on D K Shivakumar.

"Vijayendra will be able to mobilise the manpower and the resources required to counter the might of Shivakumar. Several other leaders like Dr Ashwath Narayan, Ashok have tried, and have not succeeded so far.

"He will probably be travelling across the state very soon to mobilise support and repair the damage done so far. Naturally, there will be dissent among candidates who may have aspirations, but even that will be addressed soon," says a source close to Vijayendra.

"Vijayendra's appointment will naturally be seen as a good choice, given the past record of the outgoing president's (Nalin Kumar Kateel's) unpopularity among karyakartas in the state," says another source in the party.

Many changes are expected to be seen in Karnataka BJP over the next few weeks, as Vijayendra takes charge of the party. Will he survive and succeed beyond the Lok Sabha polls?

"Most likely," agree all our sources.