Bihar: Why Pappu Yadav And Congress Need Each Other

Ahead of general election 2024, Pappu Yadav has decided to merge his Jan Adhikar Party (JAP) with the Congress. The development came a day after his meeting with the father-son duo of Lalu and Tejasvi Yadav.

Pappu Yadav is one of those leaders who rose to power in the phase of bahubali politics. In 1990, he became an independent Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) from Singheshwar constituency of Madhepura. Next year, Yadav contested the Lok Sabha election and became a Member of Parliament (MP) from Purnea.

Yadav retained Purnea seat in 1996 and 1999 elections as well. In 1996, he got his ticket from Samajwadi Party, only to go back to independent candidacy in 1999. In 2004, he chose Madhepura as his battleground and won on a Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) ticket. 

Yadav enjoys a Robinhood image in Bihar. His 1990s and early 2000s days are mired by strongman image. His presence is said to run shivers down administration in his constituency. Administration worked swiftly, ensuring that Yadav didn't get complaints from the public. People outside Bihar saw a glimpse of his strongman stature when Arnab Goswami revealed how he was kidnapped for two days by Yadav in 1996.

During his bahubali days, Pappu Yadav enjoyed patronage of the RJD, especially its Supremo Lalu Yadav, under whose rule the jungle raj flourished in Bihar, giving bahubalis like Pappu Yadav nearly unchecked power. Before Lalu's son Tejasvi Yadav came into frame, many saw him as one of the people who could take the baton.

Post change of guards in Bihar in 2005, Yadav’s fortunes turned upside down.

Law caught up with him and Yadav was convicted in 1998 for the murder of Ajit Sarkar, Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader, who was shot 107 times. Due to the court's order, he did not contest in 2009. After his acquittal in 2013, Yadav made a significant comeback in 2014, beating Janata Dal United (JDU) heavyweight Sharad Yadav by more than 50,000 votes.

Another twist of fate was awaiting Yadav. RJD Supremo Lalu Yadav was looking to launch his son Tejasvi, which would mean diminished stature for Pappu Yadav. Tejasvi won and Pappu Yadav was ousted by RJD for alleged anti-party activities in 2015.

Frustrated by this, Pappu Yadav formed his own party and contested the 2015 assembly election with no success.

Yadav focussed on carving out a soft-image for himself. His videos traversing through flood prone areas in Patna to help people went viral on social media. Even during the Covid-19 pandemic, he helped people and made sure that he was seen extending support. 

An image encompassing all identity groups was established, but converting them into votes is always more complex than it looks. That is why it did not surprise experts that Yadav lost in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, as well as 2020 Assembly Polls. In 2020, JAP contested on 148 seats, but returned with only 1 per cent vote share and no seats.

In both these elections, Pappu Yadav probably overestimated the impact of social media campaigns, which explains why he did not focus on strengthening Seemanchal, the region of Bihar where he is considered to be strong.

Seemanchal region of Bihar consists of Araria, Purnea, Kishanganj and Katihar Lok Sabha constituencies. They come under Purnea division. According to latest available Census figures of 2011, Hindus’ share of the population is 53.51 per cent, while Muslims comprise 45.93 per cent. In the wake of its proximity to West Bengal, trend of massive influx of Bangladeshi migrants and their spillover in Seeamanchal, it won’t be a surprise if the latest census figures put Muslims in a decisive position in the region. 

Voting patterns in nearby Madhepura, Saharsa and Supaul are also said to be impacted by Seemanchal. All seven constituencies combined are part of Kosi-Seemanchal region.

Yadav, being a proponent of RJD’s Muslim-Yadav strategy, has handy support of Muslims as well as Yadavs, the most prominent Hindu vote-bank in the region. People have voted for him in the past. Though he had to suffer setbacks in the last few elections, in 2024, Yadav is making sure that he doesn’t come across as a competitor to Lalu and Tejasvi Yadav. He has made suo moto efforts to bridge the gap with the RJD heavyweights.

Pappu Yadav’s strategy seems to be paying off.

He has been camping in Purnea for the last four months. In February, he did a show of strength by organising a massive rally. The support had worried Congress and RJD, coalition partners in the INDI Alliance.

For the Congress, Seemanchal is the last hope in Bihar.

During 2019, at the peak of the Modi-wave, the party was able to bag the Kishanganj seat and gave a hard time to the JDU in Katihar. Even during the Bihar leg of Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra of Rahul Gandhi, Seemanchal region was preferred as a focal point. The only rally Gandhi held was in Purnea. Performing well in the region will provide a significant momentum to the grand old party.

But the problem for Congress is galvanising votes in its favour. In the 2020 assembly elections, Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) snatched a sizable vote-share of Congress. AIMIM won five seats in Bihar assembly (four of its MLAs later joined the RJD). In the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, Owaisi plans to field 11 candidates in Bihar, including four in Seemanchal, which could lead to the division of the Muslim vote.

This is where Pappu Yadav comes in. His vote-share is not enough for him or candidates backed by him to win on their own. But when it is coupled with vote-share of other parties, the contest becomes interesting.

Bringing Pappu Yadav into the fold could possibly help the Congress consolidate the Muslim vote. In return, Pappu Yadav wants to contest from Purnea.

Earlier, Pappu Yadav claimed he had approached the RJD for it, but the party is said to have offered the Madhepura seat to him. Madhepura has its own duality. Despite having Yadavs in the majority, the constituency has in the past handed defeat to prominent Yadav leaders like Lalu Yadav and Sharad Yadav, and Pappu Yadav himself. 

It is probably this equation that led to the marriage of convenience between Pappu Yadav and the Congress.