BJP Sets In Motion Its Plan For Eastern Uttar Pradesh

It is election season in Uttar Pradesh and a time for political alliances and dalliances. The recent attempt of merger of mafia Mukhtar Ansari-led Qaumi Ekta Dal with the Samajwadi Party (SP) gave the impression that the ruling party needed more gangsters to win the state election.

However, the SP leadership rescinded its decision on merger after much inter stress in SP over the controversial nature of OED leaders.

Mukhtar was named a key conspirator in the murder of (BJP) MLA Krishnanand Rai and one couldn’t have missed the symbolism of this merger had the SP gone ahead with it.

The BJP, on the other hand, has sought to bolster its poll prospects oddly by allying with a relatively unknown political outfit Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) led by Om Prakash Rajbhar, a former member of the Bahujan Samaj Party.

Rajbhars form a sizeable constituency in eastern Uttar Pradesh, or Poorvanchal, which sends 135 legislators. In 66 constituencies the number of Rajbhar voters varies from 50,000 to 100,000.

In 54 constituencies their number varies from 25,000 to 45,000. With only eight legislators from that region, BJP is well aware that leveraging the Rajbhar vote bank is crucial for increasing its presence in the region and also its tally in the state.

However, other than its Rajbhar vote bank, the SBSP has no claim to fame. The party was formed in 2002 and contested the 2004, 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections and the Vidhan Sabha elections of 2007 and 2012, without registering a single win.

In 2007 Vidhan Sabha elections, the party had fielded 97 candidates but only three of them could save their deposits. The party got a total of 491,347 votes, which is 0.94 percent of the total votes polled in the state.

In the 2012 Vidhan Sabha elections, this vote share went down to 0.63 per cent and all but four of the 52 candidates lost their deposits. It also polled lesser number of votes-477,330.

The party even contested the Bihar assembly elections but with disastrous results.

But Om Prakash Rajbhar is a never-say-die politician. His take away from the 2012 election was that on 26 seats the BJP trailed the SBSP by half or more than half the votes polled by SBSP nominee, while the Congress was similarly behind in 46 seats.

The alliance, in his assessment, would be mutually advantageous for both the BJP and SBSP.

“This time the BJP is rejuvenated and battle ready,” he said.

A closer scrutiny would suggest that the BJP would be the bigger gainer but only if SBSP is able to manage its flock of voters efficiently and increase its vote share.

As per the arrangement, SBSP will contest 20 seats and it expects to gain on BJP votes. On the remaining seats Om Prakash Rajbhar is confident of transferring the Rajbhar votes to the BJP.

A clearer picture of the deal would emerge when BJP president Amit Shah addresses a rally on July 9. On his part, Om Prakash Rajbhar does not have a very long wish list. He wants statehood for Poorvanchal, but the BJP may not make a commitment immediately as the party’s official line on creation of smaller states has been to leave the matter to a states reorganisation committee. His other demand is that Rajbhars should be in the scheduled castes category instead of vimukti jaati or scheduled tribe.

A BSP leader from eastern UP refused to take the BJP-SBSP alliance seriously. Only if Mayawati fails to marshal her forces in the face of continued desertions from BSP, the combine would make a dent in the prospects of BSP candidates, he said.

By appointing a backward class leader as state party president and making all out efforts to win over non-Jatav Dalits, the BJP has more or less laid its hand on the table. The tie-up with the SBSP has been sewed up keeping that strategy in mind.