BJP's Focus On Non-Jat Politics Will Cost It Jat Votes In Haryana

The prevailing narrative for the upcoming Haryana assembly elections is that the Jats, forming the most politically influential community, are unlikely to vote for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

But one wonders why. After this writer spoke to several politically aware Jats in Haryana, it became clear that the BJP has only itself to blame for their displeasure.

During the BJP's 10-year rule in the state, the Jats always felt excluded. They were not accustomed to being away from power, but this changed under the BJP as a non-Jat Chief Minister led the state.

Notably, Jats are the largest community in Haryana, making up more than a quarter of the state's population. However, they have held the Chief Minister's office for more than half of the state's history.

"A Jat voter thinks that only Congress can give the state a Jat CM. On the contrary, the BJP has a non-Jat CM image, and the problem with the Jats is that they cannot accept a non-Jat as the CM," a Jat from Kaithal told Swarajya.

When Manohar Lal Khattar was removed from the position, the Jats expected that one of them would be made the CM, but the BJP again chose a non-Jat, Nayab Singh Saini as the CM due to its own political compulsions.

The BJP has always employed a Jats-versus-Others strategy in the state, which helped consolidate support from other caste groups. However, this approach doesn't seem to be working this time. Instead, some of the other caste groups, particularly farming communities, are aligning with the Jats to support the Congress, according to political commentator Satya Godara.

However, this doesn't mean the Jats are leading an anti-BJP wave in Haryana. Rather, many of the BJP's actions are fueling a wave against it, with the Jats being just one part of it.

This includes the now-repealed three farm laws and the farmers' protests that occurred since the introduction of the laws in 2020, the wrestlers' protests, and the launch of the Agnipath scheme.

Jats were the most affected community by these moves, as they are the largest landholders in the state and have significant representation in both the Indian armed forces and the wrestling community.

The community feels that the Agnipath scheme has denied them permanent jobs in the armed forces. Similarly, regarding the wrestlers' protest, they think that justice was not served for their daughters.

Thus, they voted en masse for the Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, leading the party to win five of the 10 seats in the state — a first since 2009, marking its resurgence.

Similarly, the Congress has a chance to form the government in Haryana after a gap of 10 years, with the help of Jat voters. However, it's important to note that the Jats are not collectively opposed to the BJP.

"The BJP won all 10 seats in 2019 and seven in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. It formed a government in the state twice. This would not have been possible with Jats totally against the party," Godara explains.

Even in this election, the Jats will vote for the BJP partially in those places where the BJP has fielded Jat candidates, he added.

A Jat from Sonipat told Swarajya that if the BJP had declared a Jat as its Chief Ministerial candidate, the Jats would not be voting one-sidedly for the Congress.

However, they feel that the BJP does not give enough representation to Jats in the state. "The Congress has given tickets to 27 Jats, while the BJP has given to only 16 Jats," another Jat said.

The Jats are unhappy not only with their lack of representation but also with the perceived lack of political importance given to them. The BJP implemented a strategy assuming it could thrive in the state without their support, which manifested in some of the actions of the party in the state that displeased Jats.

"Jat ko lag raha hai ki unki Chaudhar chali gayi hai (Jats feel that their dominance is gone)," the Kaithal Jat said.

The community feels that only Congress can restore the Jat dominance, as former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a Jat, still wields significant influence in the party’s state unit.

Even in ticket distribution, most of Hooda's loyalists were selected. After the election, the community expects either Hooda or his Lok Sabha MP son, Deepender, to become Chief Minister.

Meanwhile, the Jats have completely lost their faith in Chautalas. Abhay Chautala's Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) already lost its charm in the 2019 assembly election.

Dushyant Chautala's Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which won 10 seats in 2019, is also on a decline and has lost the trust of its voters due to the formation of a post-poll alliance with the BJP, despite attacking it in the campaign.

Thus, the Congress is the only reliable alternative for the Jats against the BJP. The BJP, however, continues to try for a Jats-versus-Others strategy to get other communities on its side.