BJP’s Kashmir Strategy Spot On

Of all the combinations available, the only viable option now in the interest of stability and a government that respects the mandate of the people appears to be a PDP-BJP coalition.

The BJP in 2002 had all but one solitary seat in Jammu & Kashmir in 2002. In 2008, the BJP had 11 seats. This time around, the BJP has increased its tally more than twofold. If that is not a tremendous performance, nothing is.

In the beginning of the campaign for the Assembly elections, the BJP came up with the slogan of “Mission 44”. It was deemed impossible by political commentators. That the party won 25 out of 37 seats in Jammu is in itself a tremendous performance. In the Jammu region, they definitely maximised their potential. While they may not have swept the region, a strike rate of over 67 is commendable indeed.

Swarajya has published a critique and two endorsements of the BJP strategy: an editorial and an article. One sees more political sense in the latter.

The first article alleges that the BJP and Narendra Modi erred in their strategy. The Prime Minister’s outreach initiatives of spending Diwali in Srinagar with those affected by the floods, of not raising the Article 370 issue, meeting ex-separatist Sajjad Lone and eventually the fact that the BJP finished in the second spot behind the PDP is shown as a case of a result of bad strategy.

While the BJP failed to bag even a single seat in Kashmir and many of its candidates lost deposits, the very fact that the party managed to have candidates fighting in every seat, many of them bagging votes over 1,000, is no mean feat. What the Mission 44 achieved was grabbing the mindspace. They were talked about across the state. Even if the people in the Valley did not vote for Modi’s candidates, there was a level of intrigue that Mission 44 created. It is to the BJP’s credit that the Prime Minister was able to address the state from Srinagar and take with him his message of development.

A separatist moving over to the mainstream, giving up the call of boycott of elections and choosing to contest them is a welcome sign for the country and its democracy. Lone’s decision to contest polls was a welcome step. Before the elections, he had met with the Prime Minister, praised him and called him a brother. There is absolutely nothing wrong in the country’s Prime Minister meeting with a fellow citizen and prospective ally, especially since his participation in the democratic process was a step in the right direction.

Every election brings with it its own set of challenges. A national election and a state election are different, too. And the election in one state varies from that in another. Finally, Jammu & Kashmir is quite a unique case.

The BJP is reported to have managed to secure the support of four others and three independents, two of whom come from Lone’s party, taking their effective number up to 32. At the same time, it makes it difficult for the PDP to cobble up numbers without the BJP. The support of independents and Lone could not have been achieved had the BJP not gone ahead with its outreach programme. It got further success as neither the PDP nor the NC look at the BJP as untouchable today. Importantly, outreach does not equal appeasement.

Another criticism that pundits have repeated in television studios is that the high voter turnout in the Valley was meant to keep the BJP out. That does not hold true, as the results show the NC surprising exit poll predictions and coming up with a tally of 15 seats. If there indeed had been counter polarisation, we should have seen the PDP sweep in the Valley. Had the PDP swept the Valley, even if the BJP had won a few seats more, the value for their seats would have been much less. Today the BJP is a kingmaker, or can even audaciously aim to be the ‘king’.

Of all the combinations available, the only viable option now in the interest of stability and a government that respects the mandate of the people appears to be a PDP-BJP coalition. That would be truly representative of all regions and religions as well. While the give and take will have already started with all prospective parties in forming the next government, the BJP stands in a strong position, arguably more so even than the PDP, as a result of an effective support of 32 MLAs.

The one real disappointment is the failure of the BJP to open its account in Ladakh where it has a sitting MP. Otherwise, 23 December was a very good day for Amit Shah and the BJP.