BJP’s Silent Growth In The Northeast

The formation of the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) last week immediately after the swearing of the BJP-led three-party coalition government in Assam holds immense prospects for the BJP in the North-East. And the NEDA gaining ground in this region and ruling more states here would be of immense significance for the BJP in the rest of India. Because that will finally change the perception of the BJP being only a party by, of and for Hindus.

A few important things have been missed out by the rest of the country as far as the BJP in the North East is concerned. North East India comprises eight states--Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. Of these, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Nagaland are Christian-majority states.

Assam, though a Hindu-majority state, has a large presence of Muslims, mostly of Bangladeshi origin, and Tripura is dominated by Bengali Hindus who migrated to that state during the 1947 partition. Buddhists, practitioners of an animistic faith called Donyi-Polo and Hindus make for the majority of the population of Arunachal Pradesh while the majority of Manipur’s population is made of Meiteis who are mostly Vaishnavites with Christian tribals and a small section of Pangals (who are Muslims) making up the rest. The overwhelming majority of the people of Sikkim are Hindus and Buddhists.

The North East, thus, is an eclectic mix of various tribes and peoples practising different religions. And the BJP is in power in two states of this region--Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. Its allies (constituents of the National Democratic Alliance or NDA) are in power in the two states of Nagaland and Sikkim. The Naga People’s Front (NPF) rules Nagaland while Sikkim is ruled by the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF). That puts the larger BJP family-the NDA-holding the reins in four of the eight states of the region at present.

And this busts a few myths propagated by the Congress-Communist cabal in the country: that the BJP’s appeal is limited to only Hindus, and that too the caste Hindus. If that were the case, Nagaland’s Christians would not have brooked their ruling party aligning itself with the BJP.

Also, the Christians in Tura (who form the overwhelming majority of the electorate in the Tura Lok Sabha seat) would not have elected Conrad Sangma (son of former Lok Sabha Speaker Purno Agitok Sangma) and a candidate of the National People’s Party (founded by Purno Sangma, it is a constituent of the NDA) to the Lok Sabha by a record margin of 1.92 lakh votes in the recently-held by-polls there. Conrad’s opponent was the wife of Meghalaya’s Congress Chief Minister Mukul Sangma, who had staked his prestige there and the defeat was a big slap on his face.

Even, Assam’s indigenous Muslims have voted for the BJP and its electoral allies, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland People’s Front in such large numbers. Without the support of Assam’s indigenous Muslims (as opposed to the immigrants from Bangladesh), the BJP and its allies could never have won from a large of seats in Assam that they have.

Hence, it is incumbent on the BJP’s central leadership to highlight the fact that the party has the support of Muslims, Christians, Buddhists, tribals and other indigenous communities of the North East.

Assembly polls in Manipur are scheduled for late February or early March next year and with NEDA convenor and BJP strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma starting to draw up the electoral strategy of that state, it can be safely assumed that the BJP will form the government there.

In Meghalaya, too, the BJP is all set to form a rainbow coalition of non-Congress and democratic regional forces that has very bright chances of dislodging the corrupt Congress government from power in early 2018.

Discredited in the eyes of the public, the corrupt and inefficient government of Mukul Sangma could well face an early demise, what with many legislators of the ruling alliance, which anyway enjoys a wafer-thin majority in the Assembly, disgusted with the way the government has been performing and exploring other alternatives.

In Christian-majority Mizoram, currently ruled by the Congress that is mired in corruption and faces major charges of misgovernance and nepotism, the opposition Mizo National Front which is again a constituent of the NDA has been gaining ground. The MNF, it is widely believed, will dislodge the Congress government in that state in elections slated for end-2018.

Thus, by the end of 2018, we would most likely be looking at a scenario where the BJP, or NDA partners, will be in power in seven of the eight North Eastern states. As for the remaining state of Tripura, even though the CPI(M) is in a strong position there, the BJP is slowly gaining ground at the expense of the Congress a la Kerala and, within a few years, the BJP is likely to emerge as a credible opposition to the Marxists.