Can BJP Win More Than 135 Seats In The Gujarat Elections?

99 in 2017; 135+ in 2022?

Turns out, the story on 8 December will not be about the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) managing yet another victory on the home turf of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but about the number of seats, it can get.

The number is important for two reasons.

One, it would be the end of the discourse around the 2017 elections, the one most consider the worst BJP performance in two decades. And two, it would tell you the state of the Congress in Gujarat, and also the new entrant on the block, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). 

Beyond the politics, optics, and rhetorics, there are three primary facts that must be factored in to gauge the magnitude of BJP’s imminent success on 8 December.

One, Congress, unlike in 2017, is nowhere in the fight. They are not even trying. Perhaps, that explains why the Bharat Jodo Yatra skipped the state altogether.

Two, AAP is trying to make some noise, but they are more focussed on attaining the 25-odd per cent vote share and emerging as the second-largest party in the state.

Three, even with a victory guaranteed, BJP is going all in on the campaign run. 

Thus, three possible permutations emerge.

One; AAP is all gas, and Congress retains its position as the distant primary opposition in the state, even with a local leadership vacuum, thus giving BJP a free run. 

In this case, of the 77 seats Congress currently has, the first to go would be the 35 seats they snatched from the BJP (33) and GPP (2).

Of the 35 seats, Congress’ victory margin was less than 10 percentage points on 22 seats, less than equal to 5 percentage points on 15 seats, and less than equal to 3 percentage points on 9 seats. 

In 2012, with a 47.85 per cent vote share, BJP managed 116 seats, whereas the seat count came down to 99 even with an increased vote share of 49.05 per cent in 2017.

Thus, quite like 2017, if this one turns out to be a bipolar contest, BJP is set for big gains, given the anticipated decline in Congress’ vote share.

Some experts are already predicting that BJP's vote share may exceed 50 per cent. Thus, one can easily assume at least 20 Congress gains, with very low victory margins, from 2017 going back to the BJP, taking the seat count to 120-125. 

Two, if AAP does manage some attention and manages to get a vote share anywhere between 5 and 15 per cent. In this case, it would be the Congress voters that would make the shift, further denting the party’s position in the state. However, from an overall perspective, this would only give BJP more upthrust. 

In 2017, of the 77 seats that went to Congress, 49 seats were won with a victory margin of less than equal to 10 percentage points. 29 seats were won with a victory margin of less than equal to 5 percentage points, and 17 seats were won with a victory margin of less than equal to 3 percentage points.

BJP, of the 99 seats it won, had a victory margin of less than equal to 10 percentage points on 36 seats, of less than equal to 5 percentage points on 24 seats, and less than equal to 3 percentage points on 16 seats. 

Thus, if the AAP begins to dent Congress’ vote share, they would only undercut the second largest party, and given we have a first-past-the-post system, BJP could easily bank on gaining at least 30 seats where the Congress’ winning margin was less than 5 percentage points, taking their toll anywhere between 125 and 135.

However, if the AAP manages to get its vote share into double digits, BJP’s seat count could breach 140 even, and as Swarajya’s Venu Gopal Narayanan states, it could be a repeat of Rajasthan 2013 for the saffron party. 

Three, and least probable permutation; that there is indeed an undercurrent in favour of the AAP and growing anger against the BJP. Even in this case, it is Congress that will emerge as the loser and BJP that will emerge as the winner.

While AAP can be credited, to some extent, for its optics and media manipulation (opinion polls, plausible vote share etc), there is no way they can exceed the Congress’ vote share from 2017. Thus, BJP will return to form the government, and in the worst-case scenario, with at least 105-115 seats. 

Of the 182 assembly seats, 40 are marked as SC and ST seats, with BJP winning only 16 of them. This time, the BJP would want to better its count, given that the Patidar agitation is no longer a factor. Of the 40 seats, BJP would want to win as many as 25. 

Rahul Gandhi, this time and unlike most elections, has read the writing on the wall, and perhaps, that is why he skipped Gujarat altogether to dodge the political embarrassment. The Congress, therefore, is not backing itself to win 40 per cent votes.

AAP’s breakthrough is not as visible as its supporters would have hoped for. Meanwhile, Modi, exercising his Midas touch, marches on, aiming for the skies. Less than a week from now, BJP could register its biggest victory in the state of Gujarat, ever. 

What can stop BJP from hitting that magic number of 135?