Counterview: Can Modi and Mufti Create History?

Can aspirations of the people of Jammu reflected through the BJP be ignored? This is the crucial issue that both the PDP and the BJP need to mull over separately and together.

If politicians understand the mood of the electorate and interpret the verdict correctly, they would find it easier to reach a solution than if they continue to see the Jammu & Kashmir mandate with a blinkered vision. The results of Jammu, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 25 of the 37 assembly seats, and Kashmir, where the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won 28 of the 46, is essentially a verdict for coalition of interests and parties. To interpret it otherwise would be a travesty of the situation.

If we consider the logic of the anti-BJP ‘secularists’, people in Kashmir have voted overwhelmingly for the PDP since it promised to stop the BJP from entering the State. Hence, the two joining hands for government formation would be unethical, argued the National Conference (NC). How about the BJP vote in Jammu? Did people not vote for a decisive entry of the BJP in the Assembly? Did the people of Jammu not vote for the BJP with a vengeance after charges of years of neglect by those in power in the Valley?

Which one is a communal vote and which is a secular one? It would be preposterous to assume either way. Voters are the best judge, and they have always proved to be wiser than the people who purportedly represent them. The path-breaking mandate is likely to push for coalition between the PDP and BJP for the simple reason that keeping either of them out of the government would mean gross injustice to the electorate. This might lead to a far greater alienation than ever before; it may inflict irreparable loss on the psyche of the voters.

The mandate should be seen as godsend to carve out a path for lasting peace in the state. A coalition of the two parties that represent two divergent views on militancy, but see good governance as a way to resolve years of neglect, is bound to show the way forward. The PDP too has been talking of good governance and development — something that the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised to implement.

Those who try to make the BJP untouchable even now are living in old times where such logic based on prejudice swayed the electorate. The BJP has gained tremendous political respectability under Modi. It may have won only 3 per cent votes in the Valley, where most of its candidates lost their deposits, but it cannot be ignored that it has 23 per cent votes in the state, which is more than the percentage votes polled by the PDP at 22.7, the NC at 20.8 and the Congress at 18. And one need not forget that the BJP had polled the largest percentage of votes in 2014 Lok Sabha polls as well — 32.4 — followed by the Congress at 22.9, PDP at 20.5 and National Conference at 11.1.

Can aspirations of the people of Jammu reflected through the BJP be ignored? This is the crucial issue that both the PDP and the BJP need to mull over separately and together. The relationship between people should not be seen through the stereotype of the Hindu-Muslim divide.

Militancy in the state has to die a natural death. Pakistan’s design may not succeed now as it is losing international support on Kashmir. A diplomat this author spoke to said that they were no longer interested in Jammu & Kashmir. With a stronger Modi in the saddle giving an impression of a stronger India, foreign powers would be forced to see through the Pakistani design on Kashmir. If Pakistan’s support declines, militancy in the Valley may have a much shorter life than otherwise expected.

The higher percentage of voting, indicating a larger participation of the state’s people, have snubbed anti-India forces and indicated a desire for change. The locals have realised that they can change their future through the ballot. In such a situation, the bullet has to recede. Democratic participation would lead to further isolation of separatists.

The BJP’s being in power would increase the possibility of a solution to Kashmir’s alienation. The BJP cadre accepted the dilution of the party’s stand of going silent on revocation of Article 370 of the Constitution that grants special status to the state. This has happened because of Modi’s strong leadership. Perhaps the Sangh Parivar has also realised that a stronger entry of the BJP in the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly would help faster resolution of the Kashmir issue.

As far as Modi is concerned, it must have been an extension of his appeal on the Independence Day where he called upon all parties to shun violence and put a moratorium on such issues for at least 10 years. He lived up to his promise. Diluting the BJP’s core ideology was not an easy task.

The Congress had got this same opportunity in 2002 when it formed a coalition government in the state with the PDP. But that national party did not have the vision or the tact or the desire to take the situation to a solution. Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, who was the Chief Minister then, handed over the reins to the Congress in November 2005 as part of the alliance’s agreement. Instead of using the time to apply balm on the hurt, the opportunity was lost in politicking and running down each other. The international situation was also not as favourable as it is now, thanks to a strong and stable government at the Centre.

The two-pronged strategy of the BJP and the PDP should be to usher in development and create job opportunities in the State — an agenda on which the two do not have any difference. This would help the youth overcome the sense of being wronged and get more integrated with the country. The solution to the problems of Jammu and Kashmir is further and stringer integration with other parts of the country. A time may come where Article 370 may lose its relevance or the people of the state may themselves say the special provision is no longer required.

The national leadership of the BJP needs to work on what most people in the party believe to be privately true, but would not say so publicly for the fear of cadre reprisal. Then US Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott has written in his book Engaging India that then External Affairs Minister and senior BJP leader Jaswant Singh (of the NDA coalition government) had mentioned to him that the NDA government might consider converting the Line of Control, based on the 1949 ceasefire line between India and Pakistan, into international border. Singh had denied having said this, but few believed in the denial.

Modi has excelled in calling a spade a spade. He, like anyone else, knows that while it is fine to keep the rhetoric of liberating Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) going, this would be an impossible task to implement. What he can look forward to is a stable government in Pakistan and peace and full support in the Indian side of the Valley. Any solution to Kashmir or action therein—development or otherwise — would be more acceptable if the PDP and BJP were to be ruling together as a coalition government.

PDP president Mehbooba Mufti has assiduously built her party in the Valley brick by brick. The PDP has more credibility than many to speak on behalf of the Valley. She would, therefore, be in a much better position to make her decisions acceptable to the youth. Her test would be whether she wants to work for resolution of the conflict or just be another leader who wants to rule.

Winning three more seats than the BJP has put the onus of government formation on the lady. She has to take the initiative to end the impasse. Indications from the PDP camp are positive; they want to deliver good governance and give the youth a chance to perform in a better economy. But Mehbooba will have to be bold and bite the bullet with the hope that things will improve. Politics and leadership are all about taking risks.

The PDP, by allowing the Congress to have its chief minister after a three-year term in 2005, had demonstrated political morality. The BJP should have no reason to mistrust it if a power-sharing agreement is fashioned on similar lines. However, the BJP should also see the overall national picture of securing peaceful borders and furthering international peace. This NDA government may achieve what even Atal Bihari Vajpayee could not. Modi and Mufti can write history together.