Explained: The 2024 Lok Sabha Verdict From Maharashtra — INDI Alliance's Gains, NDA's Losses

The results of the recently held Lok Sabha polls across the country declared on 4 June have thrown several surprises. Not only did the electoral verdict unsettle the pollster’s predictions for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), but it also gave the Congress-led INDI Alliance some unexpected gains.

Congress, the leading party of the INDI-Alliance — a coalition of parties opposed to the BJP-led NDA, has not only bettered its performance nationally by moving up from 52 in 2019 to 99 at the present, but has also outshone its opponent — the BJP in Maharashtra by having the highest number of elected Lok Sabha representatives in the state now.

As per the latest figures updated by the Election Commission of India, the Congress-led INDI Alliance comprising Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) — has collectively won 30 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra.

Party-wise, Congress candidates have won 13 seats, Shiv Sena (UBT) emerged victorious on nine seats and NCP (SP) on eight seats.

On the other hand, the BJP-led NDA has dropped from 42 in 2019 to 17 now. While BJP itself has declined from 23 in 2019 to nine, its constituents — the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde has won seven seats and Ajit Pawar-led NCP’s Sunil Tatkare has won Raigad — its lone seat.

1) Congress As The Largest Party

Notably, in 2019 general elections, Congress’s Balu Dhanorkar had won the Chandrapur Lok Sabha seat — its only win in the state. This time, the party candidate Pratibha Dhanorkar — the now deceased previous Member of Parliament’s (MP) wife — is among the party’s 13 winning candidates across the state.

Congress’s improvement in the seat tally at the present is juxtaposed to the poll survey agency India My Axis’s prediction which expected the party to win seats in the range of three-four. C-Voter on the other hand predicted a win of eight seats for the party.

2) Region-Wise Break-Up

Vidarbha: Region-wise, Congress has won the highest number of seats in the Vidarbha region of the state — at five out of 10. This has raised many eyebrows since the region has historically been a BJP bastion.

In the 2019 polls, BJP along with its alliance partner — the erstwhile undivided Shiv Sena, had won eight seats in the region. At present, the former along with its ally — the Shinde led Shiv Sena — has managed to retain only three seats, which are namely — Nagpur, Akola and Buldhana.

Marathwada: Apart from the losses in Vidarbha, BJP by itself has lost four seats in the central Marathwada region which comprises eight Lok Sabha seats. Those seats which were previously with the saffron party are — Jalna, Beed, Latur and Nanded.

The loss of the Jalna seat has particularly hurt the party as it was represented by the party leader and the outgoing Minister of State for Railways Raosaheb Danve for five terms in a row.

The lone win for the BJP-led NDA in this region is that of the Shinde-led Shiv Sena’s Sandipan Bhumre wresting Aurangabad Lok Sabha seat from All India Ittehadul Muslimeen’s Imitiyaz Jaleel.

Western Maharashtra: In this relatively affluent region dominated by the sugar cooperatives which comprises 12 Lok Sabha seats, INDI Alliance has won all seats barring Pune, Satara and Hatkanangale.

Party-wise, Congress ally NCP (SP) has dominated the polling outcome from this region by bagging five seats, which are namely — Dindori (ST), Baramati, Shirur, Ahmednagar and Madha. Of these, Dindori, Ahmednagar and Madha were with the BJP previously.

Apart from this, INDI Alliance’s leading party — Congress, in this region this time managed to wrest Solapur, which was previously with the BJP for three terms and Kolhapur, which was with the previously undivided Shiv Sena for two terms.

The saffron party’s only wins this time in the region are Pune and Satara while its ally — the Shinde led Shiv Sena’s sitting MP Dhairyashil Mane has retained the Hatkanangale seat.

BJP’s other ally — the Ajit Pawar-led NCP had contested on the lone seat of Baramati in this region. Considering that the constituency has been with the Pawar family since 1991, Ajit Pawar was keen to wrest it from Supriya Sule, his cousin who is now in the Sharad-Pawar led NCP (SP). The latter had formed this new party after Ajit Pawar seized control of the NCP from Pawar senior.

Northern Maharashtra: Considered to be a BJP stronghold, the saffron party had to face unexpected losses this time here as well. This region comprises six Lok Sabha constituencies, namely — Nandurbar (ST), Dhule, Jalgaon, Raver, Dindori (ST) and Nashik.

In 2014 as well as 2019, BJP and its ally — the undivided Shiv Sena of the past, had won all six seats in this region. However, this time, BJP lost two Nandurbar (ST) and Dhule to Congress and Dindori (ST) to NCP-SP.

Konkan: Comprising 13 Lok Sabha constituencies, the coastal Konkan region has been a stronghold of the undivided Shiv Sena of the past. However, this time, the electoral verdict from this region is mixed.

Six of the 13 seats here witnessed a direct fight between the Shinde-led Shiv Sena of the NDA and the Shiv Sena (UBT) of the INDI Alliance. They are namely — Kalyan, Thane, Maval, Mumbai North West, Mumbai South Central and Mumbai South.

Of these six seats, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena won four, which are — Thane, Maval, Kalyan and Mumbai North West.

The Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates on the other hand emerged victorious in three seats, namely — Mumbai North East, Mumbai South Central and Mumbai South — all three located within the limits of the Mumbai city.

Notably, Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in Palghar, Raigad and Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg too faced defeat at the hands of BJP in the former and the latter and Ajit Pawar-led NCP’s sitting MP Sunil Tatkare in Raigad.

3) Shiv Sena Vs Shiv Sena (UBT) And NCP Vs NCP (SP)

The results of the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections is also supposed to indicate which of the rival versions of the two previously undivided family ruled regional parties — Shiv Sena of the Thackerays and the NCP of Pawars — have an upper hand in the state.

In case of the two rival Senas, the NDA constituent Shinde-led Shiv Sena was in direct fight with the rival Shiv Sena (UBT) from INDI Alliance on 13 seats across the state, namely — Buldhana, Yavatmal-Washim, Hingoli, Hatkananagale, Aurangabad, Maval, Shirdi, Nashik, Kalyan, Thane, Mumbai North West, Mumbai South Central and Mumbai South.

Of these, Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates bagged six seats, namely — Yavatmal-Washim, Hingoli, Shirdi, Nashik and the three constituencies in Mumbai. NDA constituent Shinde-led Sena won seven seats other than those won by Sena UBT.

In case of the two rival versions of the undivided NCP of the past, the NDA constituent Ajit Pawar-led NCP and the INDI Alliance constituent NCP-SP were in direct fight over two seats — Baramati and Shirur. Here, NCP-SP managed to win both seats with a margin of more than 1 lakh votes.