Five Issues Which Will Decide People’s Voting Choices In Western Uttar Pradesh

As you read this, the world’s largest democracy has commenced polling to elect its next parliament. Uttar Pradesh, electorally India’s most important state, will again play a crucial role in deciding if Prime Minister Narendra Modi keeps his residence at 7 Lok Kalyan Marg. Eight seats in the state — Saharanpur, Bijnor, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Baghpat, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar — are holding polls in the first phase.

In the past 10 days, this correspondent travelled to more than 10 assembly constituencies spanning over three Lok Sabha seats in this region. From scores of conversations I had with voters, here are some important issues that would decide people’s voting choices.

Sugarcane Arrears

In western UP, often referred to as ‘sugarcane belt’ or Jatland or Harit Pradesh (representing a region ideal for farming), this issue tops the list as far as farmers are concerned. Given that this region (also called Doab) is bounded by two great rivers Ganga and Yamuna, it wouldn’t be wrong to state that sugarcane crop is one of the major reasons for prosperity of its farmers. Impressive prices for cane crop and ready availability of water play a crucial role in bumper harvest. However, for the past few years, sugar mills have not been able to clear dues of farmers, who offload their produce at these centres. No wonder, the issue of pending arrears has snowballed into a political hot potato.

During 2014 Lok Sabha poll campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) assured to put in place a system, where cane farmers get their payments within 14 days of offloading their harvest at mills. This hasn’t happened and the unfulfilled promise is leading to resentment.

“They promised to settle sugarcane dues within 14 days of offloading of crop at the mills. But payments are taking months,” Virender Verma, a farmer in Titavi village, which falls in Muzaffarnagar Lok Sabha seat, told Swarajya. “On this front, Mayawati was the best. She gave good prices and on time,” he adds.

At the Titavi sugar mill, farmers are upset over cane arrears. “I haven’t got my payment since January. I am still a big farmer but at least the government should settle dues for small farmers first,” says Jaiveer Singh.

In Baraut town of Baghpat constituency, Badan Singh Doon, who owns a tyre showroom near Awas Vikas Colony, is a long-time Lok Dal supporter, and furious at the BJP for the mess created by sugar mills. “Modi lies so much. He promised that sugarcane dues will be cleared within 14 days under the BJP government. It’s taking months.”

In Lisad village of Shamli district (Kairana constituency), Pankaj Malik, who owns 70 bighas, is really distressed. “I have offloaded sugarcane worth Rs 14 lakh at the mill but have received only Rs 40,000. If the situation continues like this for a little longer, western Uttar Pradesh will become another Maharashtra in farmer suicides.”

In Lank village of the same constituency, Suresh Pal, who owns 40 bighas, has cane arrears of Rs 4 lakh pending in the mill. “BJP is the worst government ever. They have shut their eyes and ears to our problems.”

Even BJP supporters like Anant Pal Malik of Lisad village register their protest over cane arrears. “People in this region don’t need development if the government clears their payment on time. And if BJP government was proactive on the sugarcane front, you wouldn’t have even found an opponent trying to fight against the BJP. This and the problem of stray cattle are big issues,” he says with confidence.

Stray Cattle Problem

Stray cattle is giving sleepless nights to farmers in certain areas of western UP. The government has managed to contain the problem in some villages and towns by building temporary shelters but due to lack of proper infrastructure and management in these structures, BJP government is asking for trouble.

At Titavi Sugar Mill in Muzaffarnagar, we met two farmers, both Balyans, from Balahara village. They refused to disclose their names but told us that stray cattle was a big problem. “Earlier, farmers used to sell them and get some money. Now, they are roaming the fields and destroying crops. We would be content if they weren’t getting slaughtered but that’s not the case. Butchers still steal them but they don’t have to pay for them. Cattle eat our crops and the butchers are making moolah,” they said.

In Shabga village (Chhaprauli assembly constituency, Baghpat Lok Sabha constituency), Prem Pal Khokhar, a 60-year-old farmer, lamented to us, “Modi says he is a chawkidar but when it comes to our farms, stray cattle are eating our crops. We have to be vigilant. Most of them just roam the streets. There is no management for this problem. We are really fed up.”

Referring to the problem, Shish Pal Malik, a farmer, and a BJP supporter to boot, says (tongue firmly in cheek) that the villagers have all got new jobs. “Yogi ne sabko naukri de rakhi hai. Har ghar mein naukri. That of protecting their harvest at night from being eaten by stray cattle,” he explains as others who are sitting with him at a baithak break into bouts of laughter. He is resident of village Lisad in Shamli district, which comes under Kairana constituency.

Brand Modi And His Policies

Brand Modi sells more than anything else. The Prime Minister’s leadership, his persona of a muscular leader who can reply to Pakistan in the language it understands, and his pro-poor policies targeting millions at the bottom of the pyramid have not only helped him keep his 2014 winning coalition but also get additional votes from those sections of society that aren’t traditional BJP voters.

In Shahpur town of Muzaffarnagar constituency, Vivek Kashyap, cane juice seller, told Swarajya that his reason to support Modi was Balakot. “Before Modi, how many prime ministers could give Pakistan a befitting response? I am voting for BJP because of Modi.”

In a Dalit colony of Muzaffarnagar town, Sunny Birla, a youngster explains his rationale for siding with the BJP. “See brother, the country is first for me. All this community, caste and small issues of employment come later. Modi is giving a befitting reply to attacks on our country. Congress would just cower in fear and do nothing. Only Modi can lead the country. Mahagathbandhan is a corrupt, selfish bunch who have come together to save their skin,” he says.

Mohammad Arif, a pan seller in Muslim locality Khalabar, explains his reasons for supporting Modi. “One great thing the BJP state government did was closure of all slaughterhouses. The whole colony used to be a big mess. Now, it’s so much cleaner and peaceful,” he says. “Modi has done a lot of development work. In the lane where I live, six families have got Rs 2.5 lakh in their bank accounts for building houses. My 52-year-old neighbour who got Ayushman Bharat card thanks to which he underwent eye surgery, which would’ve otherwise cost him Rs 9,000, free. Why shouldn’t one vote for Modi then? Work is worship.”

In the same area, Sabeel Ahmed, an advocate told Swarajya that “many poor Muslims have got cylinders and even electricity connections. Due to such schemes, there is a craze for Modi among our womenfolk. Even the youth are favouring him. So Muslim votes will be split this time.”

In Kukda area, where Dalits live, Ombir Kumar, a Jatav said, “vikas toh hua hai. They have provided cylinders in every other home. The poor have got bank accounts. Many have got money to build their pucca houses. Take my example. I didn’t have electricity for the past 30 years. I recently got a connection for free. How can I say development hasn’t happened.”

In Budhana town, in a Jatav colony, Bittu, who is in his late 20s, says, “the opposition parties used to mock Modi for touring the world but when we attacked Pakistan, all nations supported us. That’s because of Modi going to all these countries and improving relations. Similarly, the benefits of his other policies like GST will be seen in future. It’s for our own benefit.”

In Ahera village (Baghpat constituency), Omprakash Gujjar, a farmer who is preparing fodder for his cattle with his two sons, took time off from work to talk to us. He listed four reasons why he is a Modi fan. “Firstly, notebandi. No other leader had the courage to make such a bold move in going after black money. Second, Modi is the first leader who showed courage in sending forces inside Pakistan twice. Ghar mein ghus ke maara (He entered Pakistani territory and hit them). Third, Modi brought back Abhinandan within a day from Pakistan. Fourth, Modi improved relations with all countries, which bore fruit during the clash with Pakistan as all supported India.”

“If Congress was in power, we would never have gotten Abhinandan back. Modi brought him home in a couple of days,” Satendra Pawariya of Kaniyan village (Kairana constituency) told Swarajya his reason for favouring the BJP.

Yogi’s Good Governance

The biggest achievement of the BJP state government has been to restore law and order which had gone for a toss under Samajwadi Party rule.

In Shahpur town (Muzaffarnagar constituency), I met Lakhan Singh, a flower seller, who was all praise for the Yogi Adityanath government for putting an end to gunda gardi. “Mayawati’s administration was considered the best so far by us when it came to security. But under this government, the environment is even better. The police patrol van is always on the move.”

In Sisauli town, Sushil Balyan told Swarajya, “Modi and Yogi have given us freedom. Earlier, you couldn’t travel from one village to another after sunset. Now, there is no problem even at night. Gunda gardi khatam kar di hai (The reign of muscle has been stopped).”

“There is no gunda gardi for the past two years. Earlier, there used to be a murder every day in this area. One would hear incidents of molestation and what not but now there are cameras everywhere,” says Surender Valmiki, who is a resident of Quila Mohalla, a Dalit colony in Muzaffarnagar city.

In Shahpur town, Rampal Gaderia, a sugarcane juice seller, praises good governance of the state BJP government. “We used to do vigilance during the night. Every day, a family was on night patrol. It was pretty bad during winters. But now, we sleep peacefully,” he told Swarajya.

In Bhabhisa village (Kairana constituency), a young farmer Rahul Tanwar is impressed with improvement in law and order situation because it has given the common man a new sense of dignity. “In Kandhla town, which is Muslim majority, if we gave Rs 100 and bought something, the shopkeeper would again ask for money pretending we didn’t pay. And we would’ve to pay again. That’s how emboldened they were under previous regime. Now they don’t dare behave like thugs. Incidents of theft and loot, even in the village, were quite common. Now, you can even travel safely in the night,” Tanwar told Swarajya.

The Hastinapur Dharma Vs Vikas Dharma

In Kakra village of Muzaffarnagar, Yashpal Balyan, who is supporting Ajit Singh gives rationale for his preference, “Ye hamare astitva ki ladai hai. Ek he Jat party hai. Isko bacha ke rakhna hai. Agar isko hara diya to phir hamara kya rahega (This is a question of our caste-existence. We must protect our Jat party. If we defeat it, then what will we have left).”

The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) still gets votes because of Chaudhary Charan Singh who passed away more than three decades ago. We encountered many RLD supporters who are fed up of the leadership of Ajit Singh but still continue to give him their precious votes.

“Ajit Singh can’t get anything done. Whatever issue he has raised in the past, he hasn’t been able to take them to their logical conclusion, be it sugarcane dues, electricity problem or the Harit Pradesh matter. Earlier, sugarcane dues were pending for years. Now, farmers are getting their payment within a few months. There are separate power lines for villages and for farms. So, definitely there is development compared to previous regimes,” a farmer in Shabga village (Baghpat constituency), who didn’t wish to be identified, told Swarajya.

“Lekin, Charan Singh ji ki vajah se vote deni padegi. Kya karein (But what to do. Due to Charan Singh, we have to vote for RLD. We are helpless). This is the only party we have, however bad it is,” he said.

In Tikri, a large Jat-majority village, which RLD swept in 2014 in spite of the Modi wave, villagers aren’t really happy with Ajit Singh, even those who are supporting the RLD. “Whatever happens in the village, Ajit doesn’t come here. In 2014, he lost, but hasn’t visited the village even once despite sweeping this Jat majority village,” Parvendra Rathi laments. “Jats ne inke peeche lag kar apne naash kar liya (Jats backed him, and signed their own death warrant),” Iqbal Singh from Tikri village says.

Ajit Singh is more inaccessible than Satyapal but still most of the villagers vote for Lok Dal. Why is that? “Jaise Baba Bhishma Hastinapur se bandhe hue the, waise he hum Charan Singh ke parivaar se bandhe hain (just as Bhishma was indebted and pledged to Hastinapur, so are we to Charan Singh’s party),” explains Salet Singh Rathi, who is in his late 80s. Six more elders who are smoking hookah at his chaupal nod in agreement.

“Ajit has done nothing. If Jayant wins, even he will do nothing. Ajit doesn’t respect people. But he is ours nonetheless. This time, we will put our monies on the boy,” says Rajkumar Panwar of Doghat village.

This Hastinapur dharma is not just a phenomenon among Lok Dal voters but is quite common among all identity voters of caste-based parties, be it Jatavs who back Mayawati, Yadavs who support Samajwadi Party, et cetra, et cetra.

But development works launched by Modi that have reached the poor irrespective of their identity is proving to be a major factor in chipping away at these caste vote silos. Which dharma reigns supreme in 2019 — vikas dharma or the Hastinapur dharma — may well decide the trajectory the nation takes for decades to come.

This report is part of Swarajya's 50 Ground Stories Project - an attempt to throw light on issues and constituencies the old media largely refuses to engage. You can support this initiative by sponsoring as little as Rs 2,999. Click here for more details.