Ghosi Assembly By-Polls: BJP-SP Face-Off Is Primer To NDA-INDIA Lok Sabha Battle In Uttar Pradesh

Ghosi assembly by-election in Mau district of Uttar Pradesh is scheduled for 5 September. It has become a question of prestige for both the INDIA and the NDA alliances.

This is why Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh was seen addressing a rally on Tuesday (29 August), against his own record of not campaigning for the by-polls.

On the other side, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will campaign for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate tomorrow.

BJP has chosen Dara Singh Chauhan as its candidate who was already a Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) from Ghosi but had to vacate his seat as he joined the BJP after leaving SP.

Notably, Chauhan has represented Ghosi in Lok Sabha as a Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate. Then he joined BJP and served as a cabinet minister in the UP government from 2017 to 2022.

However, in January 2022, he made another shift in his political affiliation and joined the SP. With the SP's ticket, he won from Ghosi seat in the 2022 assembly elections.

Thus, the frequent shifts of Chauhan are creating a challenge for the BJP to convince voters of the former MLA's sincerity.

SP's candidate is Sudhakar Singh who hails from the Rajput community. Notably, he has represented Ghosi as an MLA from 2012 to 2017. He also contested the 2019 by-poll and lost against BJP by just 1,758 votes.

Congress and other parties of the INDIA group like Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), Apna Dal (Kamerawadi), CPI(M) and the CPI(ML) have already declared their support for the SP candidate.

Meanwhile, the BSP too refrained from contesting here, making this election a bipolar one between the BJP and the SP. And also a face-off between INDIA and NDA ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

BSP's absence leaves the Dalit votes up for the grab who are 60,000 in number in an electorate of 4.37 lakh voters. However, Dalit votes have been inclined to the BJP in the past few elections.

Muslims, 90,000 in number, come under the SP's M-Y equation. By selecting an upper caste (77,000 in number of which Bhumihars are 45,000, Rajputs 16,000, and Brahmins 6,000) candidate, the SP wants to get traction from there as well.

BJP's candidate is OBC who also form a considerable part of the population. The party has also deployed its allies such as the NISHAD Party and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) to counter the anti-incumbency.

There were rumours around Yogi cabinet expansion and the induction of Chauhan in it. Since, this expansion has not taken place till now, buzz is that the party is waiting for Chauhan's re-election.

Thus, this election matters for the BJP a lot, especially when it is eyeing to break its 2014 record of winning 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

Akhilesh Yadav wants to lead INDIA in Uttar Pradesh and this election is an opportunity for him to prove himself there. Hence, the SP secretary general Prof Ram Gopal Yadav and national general secretary Shivpal Yadav are camping there to gather votes.

The result day, 8 September, will bring out many conclusions and future strategies for both the parties, broadly saying, of both the alliances for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.