Going Solo In Punjab Is Just What The Doctor Ordered For BJP

After months of speculations, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) today, 26 March, declared that it will not be entering into any alliance in Punjab and would contest on all 13 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

This makes the upcoming election in the state a rare, four-player race between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), BJP, Congress, and the Shiromani Akali Dal of the Badals.

Here are the four key highlights from Diksha Yadav's podcast What This Means with Rohit Pathania, focusing on Punjab politics and BJP's prospects in the state ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha elections. (To listen, click here for Spotify, and here Swarajya App).

1. India's former ambassador to the US, Taranjit Singh Sandhu, recently joined the BJP. With his entry, will the party benefit in Amritsar?

There are indications that this is a positive move. Most people forget or don't remember that Taranjit Singh Sandhu is the grandson of Sardar Teja Singh Samundri, one of the leading figures of the original Akali movement.

This is a big transition for a family member of that heritage to be moving towards the BJP. It is being seen as an indication of wider acceptance of the BJP than just beyond the traditional so-called Hindu-Baniya vote bank, the Brahman-Baniya vote bank that used to be dominant in Punjab from the Hindu side.

What's also interesting is that he will most probably be fielded from Amritsar. That's the rumour going on. And if that is the case, the BJP has anyway been, or even in alliance with the Akali Dal, contesting from Amritsar for ages now. The last candidate, Ashok Singh Raju, who had lost, was also coincidentally a retired IAS officer.

The chances (of BJP) are good, and the party looks in much better condition than one would have imagined in Punjab, say, even about a year and a half ago or in the last assembly elections, where the BJP was seen to win just two assembly seats, though those two assembly seat results had many things hidden behind them.

2. How does Punjab vote?

Till about 2019, the way the people were voting in Punjab had nothing to do with local issues, at least in the Lok Sabha elections. It was more about who they probably perceived would be a better candidate for the national management of governance and other administrative issues.

3. Factors working in favour of the BJP

It's not surprising that until 2019, there was not a significant interest of the larger Sikh community in voting for the BJP per se because the BJP was not necessarily seen as a viable force due to its alliance with the Akali Dal (where the BJP was the junior partner). Since its departure from the alliance with the Akali Dal, there has been significant interest rising for the BJP.

And you have to realise that the BJP, for the first time, has been consciously working in the last two or three years building its cadre on the ground, and that has already started to show results in the Vidhan Sabha elections. Interestingly, on many seats, especially in the Malwa region, the BJP had come second; for instance, in the Ludhiana Lok Sabha seat, the five out of nine assembly constituencies that fall under it saw BJP coming second.

This indicates significant mobilisation already underway for the BJP on the ground. The increasing strength of the cadre and the clear stance of the BJP leadership, both at the state and central levels, of not aligning with the Akali Dal so far, also support this trend. [This episode was recorded before the BJP's announcement].

However, there is a lot of talk going on about the BJP and Akali Dal coming together again. But, frankly, if the BJP continues on its own, it has a better chance of winning more than it would have in an alliance with the Akalis because the Shiromani Akali Dal stands at the margin right now of the political scenario of Punjab.

4. With no alliance with SAD, BJP can win these four seats

While some polls show that the Akali Dal has a somewhat higher vote share than the BJP, it's the BJP that has more seats than the Akali Dal. And I do not believe the vote share trends that have been shown by so-called opinion polls so far. What I can say is that the BJP is in serious contest this time in at least four Lok Sabha seats (out of 13).

And if the BJP really wants to be seen as a serious contender, it has to probably quell all talks of any alliance with the Akali Dal and contest with all its might in these four seats.

Two of them are traditional bastions in a way; one is Gurdaspur, and one is Amritsar. Another seat is Jalandhar, which has also been a BJP seat in the past and it might be the case this time again. The fourth seat is Ludhiana, and that is literally striking in the Malwa belt.

Amritsar, because of the candidate, and also because Amritsar has always been a BJP seat till the last election. People tend to forget that.

Hoshiarpur is in contest, but somehow the BJP doesn't seem to be that actively present in Hoshiarpur yet. Hoshiarpur is something that the BJP has always had a back-and-forth on with the Congress in the past. So, let's see.

These are the four seats that I would like to call out to the BJP in a serious contest. Hoshiarpur is a tough fight for sure, for a variety of reasons. But I would not be surprised if the BJP scores a three out of four in these seats.

P.S. We also discuss where the Aam Aadmi Party and Congress (which got the highest LS seats in 2019) stand right now in Punjab ahead of the 2024 General Elections. Listen to the full episode here:🎙️ 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰—𝗡𝗼 𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗻𝗷𝗮𝗯