Ground Report From Surat — Where AAP’s Much-Touted ‘Parivartan’ Seems Unlikely

On Sunday evening, the entire city of Surat came to a standstill. A sea of people lined up on the streets awaiting the arrival of prime minister, Narendra Modi, to their city. As PM’s cavalcade passed the 25km long stretch, starting from Surat’s airport to the rally ground at Mota Varachha, the energetic chants of “Modi, Modi” could be heard throughout. 

Those who ascended from their homes or halted their Sunday plans to catch a glimpse included people of all ages, all religions and all genders. 

It was pure Modi mania that this writer witnessed in Surat yesterday, that too, in supposedly one of the hotly contested seats of Surat.  

Surat’s Experiments With AAP

The 16 constituencies of Surat, which includes 12 urban seats, have been in the limelight due to the advent of the Aam Aadmi Party. 

The Delhi-based party made splashes in the city during the Surat Municipal Corporation elections in 2021. It won 27 municipalities seats out of 120, replacing Congress in the second position. The incumbent BJP, however, increased its tally to secure 93 seats.

AAP’s impact was seen in the assembly segment from where the party won all of its municipalities, which has more than 70 per cent of Patidar population. It is also the seat where most of the migrant workers employed in the diamond industry reside. 

However, the question everyone is asking is if AAP could go beyond those 27 seats and make their presence felt in the rest of Surat.

In the last assembly elections, AAP lost its deposit on all the seats it contested in Gujarat. But in 2021, it saw an opening with the remnants of the Patidar agitation. Though the movement had lost its steam with the demands of reservation and representation having been met, the sourness remained. 

Capitalising on Congress’s lack of proactiveness in engaging the Patidar leadership, AAP appointed Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) leader, Gopal Italia as its state president. It was under his leadership, the party won 27 seats in SMC. 

But Italia was not alone. He was well supported by PAAS chief, Alpesh Kathiriya, the second most influential leader of the agitation after Hardik Patel. After Patel quit the party to join Congress, Kathiriya took charge. 

Tough Road For AAP’s Gopal Italia 

Now, coming back to Gujarat assembly polls, both Italia and Kathiriya, having joined AAP, are in the poll fray from Katargam and Varachha Road respectively.

Even though Italia is the state president for AAP, it is Kathiriya, also known as “Gabbar”, who has a strong recall value among their respective target constituents. 

In Katargam, the people we spoke to did not know about Italia. Though it is his home constituency, he is less popular than the incumbent BJP MLA, Vinodbhai Amarshibhai Moradiya. 

A resident of Katargam, Dilipbhai Patel, had heard about Italia but does not have much to say about him. According to him, AAP would have an impact on the seat but not enough to unsettle the BJP which has emerged victorious from the constituency in the last four elections. 

In 2017, BJP won the Katargam assembly seat with more than 70 per cent vote share. Ajit Patel, who runs a tea stall, believes that BJP would manage to win the seat even if the vote margin decreases. According to him, inflation is an issue, but it is a reality of the times.

Few Takers For ‘Parivartan’

Maganbhai Patel, an owner of a popular bakery in the Katargam assembly constituency, is confident of BJP’s win in the area. He points out that in the history of Gujarat politics, a third front has never been successful. 

Surat is considered Gujarat’s economic centre. It is famously called the ‘Diamond City’ and the ‘Textiles City’. 

The city has been home to migrants from all parts of the country, especially from Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, looking for better economic opportunities.  

A street vendor at Katargam, Munajir Mansoori, had come to Surat 10-15 years back and has made the city his home. He hopes to see ‘Parivartan’ or change in the current government due to rising inflation and finds AAP a symbol of that change. 

However, a 27-year-old auto driver from Rajasthan, Vishal Goswami, does not buy AAP’s freebies, ‘which are nothing but “rewadis” and would impact the financial health of the state in the long run’. 

He speaks of the work done BJP, especially under PM Modi, has done nationally. He is critical of AAP’s former minister, Rajendra Pal Gautam, denouncing Hindu Gods and Goddesses.  

In fact, the promise of 300 units of electricity has garnered strong opinions on both sides. If one side finds the welfarist approach worth trying, the other side has made it a prestige issue. 

A 25-year-old articulate youth from Rajkot, Mayur Talreja, believes that in Gujarat, people would refrain from marrying their daughters into families who cannot afford even 300 units of electricity.  For him, the construction of Lord Ram’s temple in Ayodhya was an almost impossible task that PM Modi has achieved. 

Sunil Lathia, hailing from Junagadh, who recently shifted to Katargam, too is wary of AAP’s promises. He, however, hails PM Modi for his policies. He is the beneficiary of Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, under which he received keys to a 2 BHK flat worth Rs 15 lakhs, back in his hometown. It is significant because Saurashtra is tricky for the BJP. 

Among the women voters, in Katargam, BJP’s popularity is untouched. Vibhuti Mali, a young flower seller, feels secure under the current government. According to her, she does not have to fear going home alone at night. She is helping her family by earning an honest living. On asking if she has heard of any new party, she replies she hasn’t.

A housewife, Rakshaben Prajapati, says that it has always been BJP for her. She points to the development that has taken place under the BJP rule and says that she is happy to vote for the party once again. 

In Katargam, AAP has been conducting daily meetings with the residents. Unlike other parts of Surat, AAP has an on-ground presence here. There is a high chance of the party weaning away the Congress’s vote share in the assembly seat. However, it would likely not be enough to defeat the BJP, which continues to be people’s preferred choice.