Here’s Why The BJP, Despite Facing Many Challenges, Is Well Poised To Return To Power In Tripura

The ruling BJP-led alliance in Tripura, which goes to the polls early next year, has faced considerable upheavals since it assumed power in the state in March 2018. 

Wracked by dissensions, erosion in its ranks, an aggressive opposition and mounting anti-incumbency, the BJP appears to have put itself at a severe disadvantage in Tripura. 

The severe crisis that has gripped its tribal ally--the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT)--has also hit the BJP hard. 

While the BJP won 36 seats in the 60-member Assembly, the IPFT won eight and the alliance  unseated the CPI(M)-led Left Front, which had ruled the state uninterruptedly for 25 years.

BJP’s Troubles

Soon after coming to power, internal differences between BJP leaders wracked the party. Factionalism became rife and governance suffered. 

A largely inexperienced set of ministers led by Biplab Kumar Deb failed to provide the promised good governance. Deb also failed to display the requisite leadership skills to take his ministers and party leaders song with him. 

As troubles and anti-incumbency mounted, an aggressive Trinamool Congress sought to fill in the void left by the Congress which failed to bag a single seat in the polls. Many Congress workers and mid-level functionaries joined the Trinamool, which launched a series of agitations against the government on various issues. 

But the Congress managed to somewhat get its act together with the return of two senior leaders--Sudip Roy Burman and Ashish Kumar Saha--from the BJP to its fold in February this year. 

The two had left the Congress and joined the BJP ahead of the 2018 state polls and Burman, son of a former chief minister, was made the health minister in the new government. But he was dropped from the ministry after he started revolting against the then chief minister Biplab Deb. 

Within the BJP, bickering among senior leaders and a constant jostling for power left many cadres demoralised and directionless. Differences between senior party leaders came out in the open and affected the saffron party’s image. 

An alarmed central leadership of the BJP was forced to intervene and ask incumbent chief minister Biplab Deb to resign in mid-May this year. He was replaced by the low-key and amiable Manik Saha. 

Rise of Tipra Motha and Implosion of IPFT

Tripura saw a new party--the The Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance which is better known as Tipra Motha--led by royal scion Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma emerge on the political scene in mid-2019. 

It took the tribal areas of the state by storm and captured the imagination of the indigenous tribals of the state by rejuvenating the demand for ‘Tipraland’--a separate tribal state comprising the areas under the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) carved out of Tripura. 

The Tipra Motha scripted a stunning electoral debut in April last year by bagging a majority of the TTAADC’s 28 seats along with its ally, the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Twipra (INPT). The alliance ended the long rule of the CPI(M)-led Left Front in the TTAADC and ended the Left’s stranglehold over tribal politics. 

But Tipra Motha’s rise led to the gradual implosion of BJP ally IPFT. Three of the party’s eight MLAs have resigned and joined the Motha. 

In June last year, IPFT legislator Brishaketu Debbarma resigned from the party and from membership of the Assembly to join the Motha. In end-October this year, another IPFT MLA Dhananjoy Tripura quit and joined the Motha. 

The IPFT suffered a huge blow with the resignation of Mevar Kumar Jamatia earlier this week. Though Jamatia is yet to formally join the Motha, his joining that party is a foregone conclusion. 

Jamata was tribal welfare and forest minister before he was unceremoniously dropped from the ministry in March this year at the insistence of party chief and revenue minister Narendra Chandra Debbarma. Jamatia had developed serious differences with Debbarma. 

But it is not just senior IPFT leaders who have left the party and joined the Motha. A huge number of functionaries and cadres of the IPFT have also migrated to the Motha. The IPFT is thus facing an implosion. 

However, it is not just the IPFT that has been dealt a blow by the Motha. In September this year, BJP MLA Burba Mohan Tripura left the party and migrated to the Motha. 

A significant number of tribal leaders and functionaries of the BJP, as well as the Congress and the Left, have joined the Motha in recent months. 

According to political observers, the Motha will definitely win a majority of the 20 Assembly seats that are reserved for the indigenous tribals of the state who call themselves Tripuris. 

The Tripuris, who number about 15 lakh, form about 32 per cent of the state’s population. Nearly 88 per cent of them reside in the TTAADC areas that are spread over the state’s four districts of West Tripura, North Tripura, South Tripura and Dhalai. 

The 7132.56 square kilometers of area under the TTAADC forms 68 per cent of Tripura’s total landmass. 

Apart from the 20 Assembly seats reserved for them, the Tripuris form a sizeable section of the population in eight other seats. 

What will harm the BJP’s prospects in the 20 (reserved) seats is the recurring refrain by all those who have left the party and its ally (the IPFT) to join the Motha that the BJP has done nothing for the tribals. 

All the four MLAs, including former minister Mevar Jamatia, have been saying that they had failed to work for their community while remaining a part of the ruling alliance in the state because the BJP had posed hurdles.

The tribals have bought into this narrative and, thus, the BJP and the IPFT face very grim electoral prospects in the tribal areas. 

And yet, advantage BJP?

But the Motha’s phenomenal rise in the tribal areas over its stringent advocacy of a separate ‘Tipraland’ state may actually be a blessing in disguise for the BJP.

The resurrection of the statehood demand has triggered alarm among the Bengali-speaking people of the state who form about 64 per cent of the state’s population and are in a majority in the 40 non-tribal seats of the state Assembly (including the seats reserved for scheduled castes). 

The state’s tribal outfits waged a more than two-decade long insurgency since 1990 demanding ‘Tipraland’. Many Bengalis were killed by tribal insurgents and hundreds of families had to flee their homes in tribal areas. 

The Motha’s rise and its advocacy of ‘Tipraland’ has triggered anti-Bengali sentiments among a large section of the tribals of the state. Bengalis of the state have started fearing a return to the dark days of insurgency and turmoil. 

This has led to a counter-consolidation among Bengalis behind the BJP that is seen as 'nationalist'. Despite the Congress pulling itself up from near decimation and the Left also re-energising itself, the BJP has positioned itself strongly as a prime defender of the interests of non-tribals. 

Also, many non-tribals believe that the Congress is funding the Motha to hit the BJP, and that has given rise to deep suspicion about the Congress’ motives. In the past, too, the Congress had often been accused of having links with insurgent groups while the party was in opposition in the state. 

The CPI(M)-led Left front has not been able to present itself as a viable alternative to the BJP. It is still too weak to mount a serious challenge to the saffron party. 

As for the Trinamool, it has lost steam and is now considered to be a spent force. 

But BJP Has To Put Its House In Order

But the BJP can ill-afford to take things for granted. It has to set its house in order right away and present a united face. 

Apart from resolving internal differences and factionalism, the BJP has to frame and present a concrete and time-bound action-plan in terms of development, generating employment and improving the state’s finances to the electorate. 

The party had frittered away its gains of 2018 and had little to show by way of governance in the first four years of its tenure. It has to make amends immediately and convince the people of the state that it will rectify itself and fulfil all its promises. 

The BJP does not have much time since elections are just about three months away. Apart from framing a smart and credible communication strategy, it has to come up with a sincere, rational and achievable manifesto to win back the trust and confidence of the people of the state. 

Replacing Biplab Deb with Manik Saha was a smart move on the part of the BJP. Saha has been able to ensure a fair amount of good governance. The BJP central leadership now has to back him unequivocally and crack down on dissensions firmly. 

Despite all the challenges, the BJP’s chances of returning to power by winning a majority of the 40 non-tribal seats in the state is bright. But it cannot take things for granted and has to pull up its socks now.

Also, the BJP needs to strengthen its back-channel contacts with tribal parties, including the Motha, for post-election arrangement and alliances.