In Bihar's Mini Moscow, RJD-Congress Alliance Could Pose A Tougher Challenge For BJP Compared To 2019

Begusarai, a stronghold of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) seems to show a little deviation ahead of General elections(GE) 2024. 

Incumbent Giriraj Singh facing protests from his own party members coupled with few more probable candidates for the seat is keeping poll watchers on tenterhooks.

Demography of Begusarai

According to the latest available census data, Begusarai is a Hindu Hindu-dominated area with 86 per cent Hindu population. Muslims comprise 13.71 per cent of the population. Among them, Scheduled Caste and Scheduled tribe make up for 14.7 per cent.

In the absence of updated data, it will be safe to postulate that each category would have seen maximum deviation of 1-2 per cent, which keeps old ratios by and large intact.

Total number of voters in the constituency is approximately 18 lakhs. Nearly 28 per cent (more than 5 lakhs) of them are Bhumihars. The second most populous category of voters is that of Muslims, which holds sway over 2.5 lakh votes. Kurmi, Kushwaha and Yadavs are 3 other prominent voting groups in the Constituency.

As the numbers indicate, Bhumihars are in a decisive position in Begusarai. Begusarai district is considered as one of the few forts of the group in the state.

Apart from sheer numbers, their dominant social standing and ability to influence voters' thought processes also become a key catalyst for those who want to woo them. It explains why even the Communist Party of India (CPI) fielded Kanhaiya Kumar, a Bhumihar in 2019. Kumar is a distant relative of Chandrashekhar Singh, the man credited for turning Begusarai into Leningrad of the East or Mini Moscow.

Where does Giriraj fit in?

In 2019, Kumar, a star of the left at the time, was beaten by Singh. Not coincidentally, Giriraj Singh is also a Bhumihar, though he is originally from neighbouring Lakhisarai. The other appeal to Singh is that he is a staunch orthodox Hindu and has been a flagbearer of Hindutva at both local and national levels.

Even during his tenure as Member of Parliament (MP) from Begusarai and Union Minister, Singh has led the party's charge on Hindu issues. He often raised the issue of discrimination against Hindus and called Congress’ DNA as anti-Hindu.

In December 2023, he inaugurated a jhatka meat shop in Begusarai, re-igniting the critical issue of jhatka vs halal meat.

His firebrand image has accorded him many admirers in the party. Singh is said to have considerable influence over the party's decision-making machinery, including Begusarai BJP President Rajeev Verma and state President Samrat Choudhary.

But Singh has his Achilles heels too.

So, what’s the problem?

For all the glamorous national and state level headlines Singh grabs, the constituency-level headlines get overshadowed. Singh is accused of not giving proper attention to his constituency. It is known that he was reluctant to contest from Begusarai in 2019 but had to give in to the party's decision to field him.

In his first year as MP, locals could barely get a glimpse of Singh. In 2020, posters of Singh’s disappearance were circulated in the city. Even after he successfully discarded this perception, the road didn’t become easier.

People of his constituency often accuse Singh of speaking too much and doing too little for them. There is an air of discontentment among his own party members as well.

On 11 March 2024, people, alleged to be members of the BJP, showed a black flag to Singh. The timing of the protest (days before the announcement of candidature) indicates that it was meant to be a hint to party high command regarding Singh’s unpopularity.

Rumours are rife that internal survey teams of the BJP have also registered similar findings against Singh. In February 2024, the Hindi daily Dainik Bhaskar conducted a survey in Begusarai to gauge people’s choice for BJP candidates. Singh was a distant second with only 20 per cent people supporting him, while the top candidate gained the support of 55 per cent of those surveyed.

Is there an alternative?

In the Dainik Bhaskar survey referred to above, Professor Rakesh Sinha, a relatively less-known name in Begusarai emerged as the people's choice for BJP candidate with 55 per cent votes. Sinha, a Rajya Sabha MP from Begusarai is also a native of Begusarai and a dedicated Swayamsevak. Since Giriraj Singh is seen as an outsider, Sinha’s face is draws more attention from voters.

Adding to these positives, Sinha is credited with key developmental works in the district too. Locals credit his involvement in construction of a mega bridge over the Ganga between Matihani and Samho. Modernisation of railway stations, flyovers and other infrastructure projects are also attributed to Sinha’s active involvement.

Apart from Sinha, IPS Vikash Vaibhav has also gathered considerable steam in the constituency. His ‘Let’s inspire Bihar’ Jansamvad in December 2023 had ruffled many political feathers.

The opposition

For BJP, a slight headache is that the opposition is united in Begusarai, unlike in 2019, when Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) had fielded Tanveer Hasan in what was supposed to be a duel between Kanhaiya Kumar and Giriraj Singh. Hasan’s presence was a catalyst in widening the lead Singh had over Kumar.

In 2019, Giriraj Singh emerged victorious with 6.9 lakh votes, while Kahaiya Kamar came a distant second with 2.69 lakh votes. Tanveer Hasan bagged 1.98 lakh votes, which considerably limited Kumar's vote share.

Kumar, who joined the Congress in 2021, has not marked his presence this time around. Speculation is rife about his candidacy from Delhi.

In his absence, the possibility of INDI Alliance members letting Congress field its candidate has diminished considerably, though the party is adamant about putting up a candidate in the Begusarai seat.

With the RJD and the Congress coming together, the battle for Bihar's Mini Moscow could present greater challenges for the BJP in 2024 compared to 2019.