Jharkhand: Why This May Turn Out To Be A Tough Election For The BJP

This is an edited excerpt from a longer conversation on the What This Means podcast with political consultant Suyash Jha, on the Jhakhand assembly elections. To listen to the full episode on Spotify, click here, and for the app, click here.

The Women Voters

As per a report, there has been a rise in women voters in Jharkhand and out of the 81 Vidhan Sabha seats, 32 have more female voters than male voters.

However, there has not been a decisive preference of women voters in Jharkhand towards any party or leader till now. But if we have to really see who they may prefer to vote for this time, then the ruling party, JMM, is at an advantage.

This is because of the Mukhymantri Maiya Samman Yojana scheme of the Jharkhand government, through which they have given Rs 1,000 to women. Since a similar scheme has been in place in Madhya Pradesh and elsewhere and also seen some success, it is being speculated that this may favour the Hemant Soren government.

They have also promised to increase the amount once they win the elections. The women voters in the hinterland will play a significant role in the assembly elections, and JMM is likely to get their support.

In Jharkhand also, there is a major migration problem in the tribal belt due to a lack of sufficient jobs, and usually it's the males who migrate to other states for work. In these areas, it's likely that women would turn up more than men to vote.

The Tribal Voters

The lack of strong presence in tribal areas cost the BJP in Lok Sabha elections, where it lost all the ST reserved LS seats in Jharkhand.

If the BJP does not perform well in the Vidhan Sabha in tribal areas, it will be mostly because of the same reason: lack of presence of cadres on the ground to put across their message and counter the narrative and allegation made by rival parties like JMM against them.

The 'Upper Caste', OBC And SC Voters And The Jairam Mahto Factor

Among the STs, across the state, there seems to be an undercurrent in favour of the JMM, including for reasons such as the schemes being implemented ahead of elections like Maiyya Samman Yojna.

But the challenge for the BJP is not so much about gaining ST votes; it is about consolidating the votes of other communities, i.e., the 'upper castes', the SCs, and the OBCs. 

And even among them, the challenge for the party is to consolidate the support of lower classes (not caste) from these communities because their voting preference can go for:

1. The ruling alliance due to the welfare schemes benefiting them.

2. To Jairam Mahto's party and its candidates.

Mahto, the new leader, is attracting a lot of young voters and a lot of voters in the coal mining belt from the Kurmi-Mahto community, which is a significant OBC community.

He is raising local issues related to domicile, language, employment, and examinations, which the other parties like JMM, BJP, and Congress do not pay attention to. And he is not just a challenge for the BJP but for JMM as well, because his party will be a vote-cutter for both.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Mahato's party fielded candidates in eight seats. In Giridih, Ranchi, and Hazaribagh, his candidates finished third, with Jairam himself securing over 3.47 lakh votes from Giridih.

The Bangladeshi Infiltration Issue

The illegal Bangladeshi infiltration issue resonates with the BJP's core voter base but it does not add new voters for the BJP. This is the case not just in Jharkhand but also in other states like West Bengal, and people concerned by this issue are already voting for the BJP and will continue to do so. 

However, raising this issue in elections helps the BJP consolidate it's core voter base and also enthuse its own cadre.

This is needed because, for example, in Santhal Pargana, the BJP is in fight, but it is a second fiddle to JMM, and it has chances to do better in this region only if it consolidates its voter base and energise its cadre.