Maharashtra: Defections And Infighting Will Keep Mahayuti And MVA On Tenterhooks In These Phase 1 Lok Sabha Seats

The first phase of Lok Sabha Elections 2024 in Maharashtra will see five seats from the eastern Vidarbha region go for polls on April 19. They are Ramtek, Nagpur, Bhandara-Gondia, Gadchiroli-Chimur and Chandrapur.

While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led Mahayuti has an upper hand in Nagpur and Bhandara-Gondia Lok Sabha constituencies, the saffron party is expected to be in a close fight with the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) candidates in Gadchiroli-Chimur, Ramtek and Chandrapur.

The Vidarbha region comprising its eastern and western parts is supposed to be a citadel of the BJP. In fact, Nagpur- the biggest city in the region is home to the headquarters of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) which is considered as the parent organisation of the party.

Despite having had a historical presence in the region and a strong cadre base, BJP is considered to have lost its tight grip on Vidarbha after its seat tally in the region for the Vidhan Sabha elections in 2019 came down from 44 to 29.

Notably, this came despite the BJP-led Mahayuti winning seven out of eight Lok Sabha seats in the region in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections held a few months prior to the Vidhan Sabha polls.

A large chunk of those seats lost to the Congress-NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) combine were from the Eastern Vidarbha.

This time in the three out of five Lok Sabha seats up for polls from the eastern Vidarbha, both Mahayuti as well as MVA have witnessed defections from its party ranks. At the same time, those who were keen to secure candidature but were denied the same have resorted to staying aloof from the campaigning activities.

Here's a round-up of the political dynamics at play in the three Lok Sabha constituencies in focus:

Gadchiroli-Chimur (ST)

The largest and the most sensitive Lok Sabha seat in the state owing to Naxalite presence, Gadchiroli-Chimur constituency is spread across the three districts of Gadchiroli, Chandrapur and Gondia.

Considering that it is home to a large tribal population, the constituency has been reserved for the candidates hailing from the Scheduled Tribes (STs) right since its formation in 2009.

Historically, both Mahayuti and MVA have been on an equal footing in the constituency. In 2009, Indian National Congress (INC) leader Marotrao Kowase had emerged as Gadchiroli-Chimur's first Member of Parliament (MP) by winning on a slender margin of 28,580 votes against BJP's Ashok Nete. Nete wrested the seat from Congress later in 2014 and retained the same again during the 2019 polls.

For the upcoming elections, Mahayuti has decided to retain Nete while Congress has fielded Dr Namdeo Kirsan as its candidate. Notably, candidature to Nete as well as Kirsan hasn't gone down well in their respective coalitions.

In the Mahayuti camp, apart from the incumbent MP Ashok Nete, Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar) leader and Aheri legislator- Dharmarao Atram and BJP's Legislator from Gadchiroli- Devrao Holi were the two other contenders for this Lok Sabha seat.

As per reports, NCP Ajit Pawar leader Atram, descendant of the family that once ruled Aheri, had in fact declared his Lok Sabha candidature even before discussions within the Mahayuti were finalised. He is yet to publicly declare his support to the Mahayuti candidate Nete.

In the MVA camp on the other hand, INC's Dr Namdeo Usendi who had contested against Nete in 2014 as well as 2019 and Dr Nitin Kodwate — both were keen for the candidature.

While Usendi is yet to publicly declare his support to the MVA candidate Dr Namdeo Kirsan, Kodwate on the other hand has ditched Congress to join the BJP.

Ramtek (SC)

Barring the 2009 instance of INC’s Mukul Wasnik emerging victorious, this Lok Sabha seat reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates has been consistently represented from 1999 by the winning candidates of Shiv Sena.

Post Shiv Sena split in 2022, Ramtek’s sitting MP Krupal Tumane had joined the Eknath Shinde led Shiv Sena.

This time the Shinde Sena has replaced him with Raju Parwe as its candidate. Parwe, incumbent Legislator from the Umred Vidhan Sabha seat was in the Congress until few months back. He joined the Shinde led Shiv Sena after his former party leaders decided to go ahead with Rashmi Barve's candidature instead for the Lok Sabha.

However, since Congress candidate Barve's caste certificate was found to have been invalid, her candidature has been disqualified. The Congress candidate here now will be her husband Shyamkumar Barve who had also filed a nomination anticipating her disqualification.

Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA) on the other hand has fielded Shankar Chahande as its candidate from the seat. Chahande was previously in the BJP as one of its senior level district official.

Ramtek has a large number of SC and OBC votes. Although VBA gained only a 3 per cent vote share in 2019, it can still potentially split the votes from both categories.

Chandrapur

This Lok Sabha seat has been in constant focus as it was the only one out of the 48 constituencies in Maharashtra that the Congress had won in 2019.

Although traditionally dominated by the grand old party, senior BJP leader and former Union Minister Hansraj Ahir had managed to win from this seat first in 1996 and later three times in a row from 2004 to 2014.

However in 2019, Ahir was defeated by INC’s Suresh Dhanorkar by a margin of 44,763 votes. Before joining Congress, Dhanorkar was Shiv Sena's Legislator from Warora from 2014-2019. The seat remained vacant after Dhanorkar’s death in May, 2023.

This time the electoral fight will be between BJP’s Sudhir Mungantiwar and INC’s Pratibha Dhanorkar. While Mungantiwar is a minister in the Mahayuti-ruled state government and a sitting Legislator from Ballarpur, Dhanorkar is the sitting Congress Legislator from Warora and spouse of the deceased MP Suresh Dhanorkar.

While Congress is banking on the sympathy factor and grassroot level cadre presence to retain the seat, BJP has conducted a rally under the lead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his first in the state for the upcoming elections.

Notably, both candidates — Mungantiwar and Dhanorkar are said to be on a weak base. Mungantiwar, who is seen as Devendra Fadnavis’s ‘sankat-mochak’ in the state politics, had reportedly expressed his reluctance to contest for Lok Sabha elections.

On the other hand, INC's candidature to Pratibha Dhanorkar hasn’t gone down well with Vijay Wadettiwar, INC’s leader of the party (LoP) in the Vidhan Sabha.

As per reports, Wadettiwar, presently a Legislator from the Brahmapuri Vidhan Sabha seat, was keen to secure candidature for his daughter Shivani Wadettiwar. Considering this, senior Wadettiwar is yet to publicly participate in poll campaigning in support of the INC candidate Dhanorkar.