Modi Looks Adrift

Whether his deputies are not in sync with the prime minister’s plans of transformation or he is complicit in their laggard pace — it is a matter of concern.

There is a sense of frustrating drift in the Indian government’s progress. It’s image is taking a daily beating. But perhaps the steep downward curve has been arrested by a natural calamity. With the powerful earthquake in Nepal on the 25th of April, followed by prompt and decisive relief action from India, the Modi government has been able to once again seize the initiative. Of course, without the right spin in the messaging on its actions, even this yeoman effort could boomerang against it as the days go on.

The devastation in Nepal and bordering parts of India, China and the Mt Everest area, has put a temporary lid on the government’s struggles. Earlier, this government did well to evacuate its nationals from war zones and jumping to disaster relief. But it can’t seem to get much credit for it.

It is sad to see it battling to get the land acquisition Bill — Amendments to The Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act, 2013 — passed, though it will certainly help the marginal farmer. Likewise, the GST bill being introduced will both streamline and improve revenue collection of the states.

But no one in the government is succeeding in putting these things across, either to the parliamentarians, or the public, and the RSS is speaking in many tongues as well. Meanwhile, why is the government not using the Land Acquisition Ordinance, re-promulgated recently, to push things through, even in the flagship DMIC initiative?

Instead, its seeming timidity, disarray, and confusion are being exploited by an opposition that probably can’t believe its luck.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government have certainly not been given the credit for their many small achievements in their first year in office — probably because, after raising expectations sky-high, only few of the moves have been particularly dramatic or big-bang in nature. The passage of the long pending insurance bill, along with the coal and mining bills recently were indeed important reformist gains. But, as far as the public goes, they took too long, and are not enough to get things moving again.

The auctioning of coal blocks and telecommunications spectrum, the deregulation of diesel prices etc were all handled well.

Meanwhile, the ‘Make in India’ programme is yet to take off, giving many analysts a chance to criticise its premises and assumptions. The infrastructure push has not yielded much as yet.The effort to streamline subsidies and help farmers is commendable, if unspectacular. The ‘smart cities’ are waiting to be born. The Railways are still languishing, and so on.

Perhaps the biggest thing that has happened over the last year is the halving of oil prices that have begun to climb a little again. The resultant benefits are a lower import bill and a perceptible drop in inflation. But the Modi government can scarcely take the credit for either.

The overall PR/advertising/social media strategy of the Modi government over the first year of its operation, has clearly failed. Where is the focus? Has the budget for this crucial activity been cut? Who is driving it? Why is the glass regarded as half empty? Why is only a section of the Cabinet in news for trying to make a change while another seems amateur and idle? What is the NITI Aayog doing differently?

The pervasive, scattered, incoherent, somewhat fatigued, if not exhausted messaging, coming after a brilliant, energetic and well-coordinated election campaign, is a surprising disappointment. It is as if the government in office does not quite know how to package itself.

Or has a premature and unwarranted complacency set in? Despite its robust majority in the Lok Sabha, and no corruption scandals to speak of, this government is perceived to be on the back foot, struggling just to govern day-to-day.

Why does it permit indiscipline in its ranks via repeated crude remarks from some of its unchecked MPs, elements in the Sangh Parivar and blatant opposition from its allies? Is Modi himself complicit in the retrograde thinking of the rabid section of swayamsevaks to some extent, like the mukhauta (mask) former PM Vajpayee was allegedly referred to as by a former pracharak? As for the economy, what will happen when the quasi-federal states are further empowered with greater control of their own finances? As for the opposition, one wonders why this government handles those responsible for the Congress-era corruption with kid gloves. It hasn’t moved even on Robert Vadra’s wrongdoings!

State governments run by the BJP outright, not to mention those in coalition, are adding to the negative perception, owing to its insensitive and provocative actions such as the recently imposed ban on beef.

Even various arms of the non-elected and bureaucratic innards of government are adding to the problem. The CBDT’s tardy bids at retrospective taxation once again via MAT is ill-timed, particularly after the FM promised to do away with ‘tax terrorism’- just when the country badly needs foreign investment.

The intelligence agencies and Home Ministry have started unnecessary new fires with their recent scrutiny of Ford Foundation and crack down on Greenpeace funding. How will this kind of ham-fisted thing encourage foreigners?

Quango organisations — such as the reconstituted Central Board of Film Certification — are taking bizarre prudery to unprecedented new levels. A year on, where is the modern market-friendly government that Modi persists in promoting, particularly during his frequent foreign trips?

Meanwhile even its line-up of spokespersons is indifferent. There are presently none of the calibre of Union Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to explain complex issues with simplicity and verve. The BJP apparatus run by Amit Shah might be doing good grass roots work perhaps, but it is singularly lacking in charisma.

Modi himself, who has reportedly long used PR and advertising agencies such as the alchemical APCO Worldwide from Washington DC, Madison, McCann, Ogilvy & Mather, and others, in India, has apparently dispensed with them now. This has created a vacuum and allowed a decimated Congress and other parties to get back in the fray, supported by a media that is largely sympathetic to a familiar if played-out myth of inclusive, pluralistic, and pro-poor governance.

Modi on his part has deliberately avoided appointing a media manager and ambitiously assumed the mantle himself. He continues his one-way communication with the public via his direct tweets and Facebook comments, his “Mann ki Baat” radio programme on All India Radio, and occasional taped messages via Doordarshan. But something is badly amiss, with both the tone and tenor, and most of it lacks the passion of 2013-14.

But of course, Modi is also the prime minister and the de facto foreign minister! This is quite a workload, and may be why the messaging is suffering. There is no classic ‘key message’ being drummed home, unless it is “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas”, itself left over from the highly professional election campaign, along with “Ab ki Baar, Modi Sarkar”, and other such brilliantly emotive slogans.

But the current reality simply does not match. The soft-pedalling of bold Reforms 2.0, the glacially slow pace of interest rate cuts, the non-existent tax or labour reforms, all flies in the face of it. A year on, the early promise of millions of manufacturing jobs does not look like coming through.

But despite all the restiveness and criticism, this government continues to be mired in a meek incrementalism, and a fearful over-caution. This is inexplicable, given the size of its electoral mandate, the wins of several big states in subsequent Assembly elections, and Modi’s continued copious and bold promises.

Modi’s goodwill too, while eroded, is far from gone. But which Ivory Tower on Race Course Road is Modi locked up in?

A big programme is in the works to celebrate one year of the Modi government in office. But the government should realise that it is likely to end up as a defensive sarkari laundry list, and fall mostly on deaf ears.