NDA Can Win 28/28 In Karnataka — If Only It Can Get Its Act Together In These Four Seats

On 10 February, Union Home Minister Amit Shah paid a visit to Mysuru, and met with the state leadership, among other important functionaries, to discuss the strategy for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in the country.

Shah has asked the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) unit to deliver all the 28 seats in the state to the BJP — a first-of-its-kind victory to any party, should it come true.

His tour also included a visit to Suttur Matha, a prominent Veerashaiva-Lingayat institution that commands influence across the region, since it happens to administer more than 300 educational institutes in the state.

Shah's focused meeting with the state leadership, including party chief B Y Vijayendra included taking note of the current development, reviewing the preparation for the general elections in the state, and passing on a message to the JD(S)-BJP cadre on the ground to work in unity, ensure a smooth transfer of votes, and possibly increase the vote share by 10 per cent across all the booths in the constituencies.

It is important to note that the BJP won 25 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, excluding one seat in Mandya won by independent candidate Sumalatha Ambareesh, who later went on to declare support to the saffron party.

This result was a historic best for any party, including the Congress, which won 24 seats during the 1984 general elections when Rajiv Gandhi's Congress managed to bag more than 400 seats — a historic best for the party.

The BJP lost the previous assembly elections in the state as a sizable Lingayat voters moved to the Congress, and Siddaramaiah's formula of appeasing the AHINDA voters made an impact for the Congress party. Additionally, the minority votes moved away from the Janata Dal (Secular)-JD(S) to the Congress and resulted in making the difference for the party where it was most necessary.

Adding to the BJP woes, the state unit saw infighting between several camps, and did not have a leadership which could unite all the camps and beat the anti-incumbency faced by the then Basavaraj Bommai-led BJP government in the state.

This time around, experts predict a swing of 15 per cent votes towards the BJP, irrespective of who is in power in the state. Karnataka has traditionally struggled to see a 'double-engine' government in the state, and has voted differently in local elections and the national one.

Even during the analysis of the 2023 performance by the Congress, election observers and psephologists like Yashwant Deshmukh from C-Voter predict an 8-10 per cent lead for the BJP during the general election, and the Modi factor will have an impact which cannot be easily discounted.

This is what Shah stated in Mysuru too. He emphasised on the party rallying on the Modi factor to increase their performance in the state. There can be an argument made that the BJP may have a slight edge over the Congress this time around too because of three important factors:

One, despite an alliance between the JD(S) and the Congress, the BJP managed to bag a surprise win across many constituencies in the state last time, and the alliance was reduced to merely two seats (D K Suresh from Bangalore Rural and Prajwal Revanna from Hassan).

Two, in a fight over 'promises' and 'models', Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's model of offering populist schemes may not work very well in the general elections. On the other hand, 'Modi ka guarantee' has worked wonders for the party even in high anti-incumbency states like Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

Three, an upset Lingayat community may find its way back to the BJP with Vijayendra's appointment as the party chief, blessed by B S Yediyurappa. With the Vokkaligas and Lingayats jointly voting for the JD(S)-BJP alliance, the Congress may struggle to win anything beyond 0-4 seats. The BJP has a stable team now, relatively speaking, and has tried uniting all the camps.

Moreover, the BJP appointed fresh faces as office bearers this time around, and they come from a wide variety of backgrounds. Swarajya reported this earlier.

Other factors include the BJP's plan to field new faces in constituencies where they are sure of winning, or have a room for experimentation. This includes Dakshina Kannada, Uttara Kannada, Bengaluru Rural, Bengaluru North, to name a few. Some old horses like Ananth Kumar Hegde, Nalin Kumar Kateel may be retired or offered a different avenue.

Top sources in the BJP tell Swarajya that the party is considering new candidates across 8-10 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state, but declined to name them. This is one of their strategy to beat anti-incumbency. JD(S) may be offered up to four seats on a seat-sharing basis.

Meanwhile, the Congress seems to be confident of winning 3-4 seats, while they publicly say they can win up to ten. This includes Bidar, Gulbarga, Bangalore Rural and Belagavi.

With former chief minister Jagadish Shettar returning to the BJP, there are rumours that he may be offered to contest from Belagavi, among other seats which are under consideration. Read this piece for more context.

About the ten-odd seats the BJP is struggling with — they mainly have to do with the candidates themselves declaring their intention to not run for polls citing age and other factors.

So, in seats like Haveri, Chamarajanagara, Bengaluru North, Tumakuru, Dakshina Kannada, Davanagere, and Chitradurga, the party seems to be scouting for options in new candidates who may have a winnability factor with them.

The party also seems to be in the mood to groom a set of new leaders in their 30s and 40s who can offer stable leadership for the next decade or two.

"These issues are going to be addressed, and the party will consider everyone's point-of-view. This time, we are determined to win all the 28 seats because it is also Prime Minister Modi's election," an insider tells Swarajya.

"Even if new candidates are chosen (in 5-6 constituencies), they may not be announced till the last moment. We want the Congress to declare their candidates first and then take a call on ours. That way, we can put up the best candidate in each and every constituency where there is a tough fight," he adds.

All in all, nearly 10-12 Lok Sabha seats will be interesting to watch out for. This also includes Udupi, Chikkaballapura, Kolara, Bangalore North and Rural.

Prof Sandeep Shastri, a psephologist, who is currently serving as Vice Chancellor of Jagran Lakecity University, tells Swarajya that it will be a tough race. He says that the BJP has recovered ground as compared to the Assembly elections.

"The Congress would be relying on its guarantees and public perception of the same. It is important to underscore that Karnataka has voted differently in Lok Sabha and Assembly contests. The Modi factor and its impact will be key. Can the Congress maintain its unity and fight the election as one force, will be decisive. It seems a bit of an advantage to BJP at the moment but things can change," he says.