Odisha BJP Leaders Happy With Failure Of Deal With BJD, Gear Up For Elections

The Odisha unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) heaves a collective sigh of relief as talks to strike up an alliance with the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in the state have failed.

While the party’s central leadership was keen to tie up with an eye on the future, the state unit had been opposed to a coalition with the BJD.

From the time that alliance talks were initiated early this month, state party leaders told the central leadership that the BJP would gain nothing from an alliance with the BJD. Instead, the BJP had a lot to lose by aligning with the BJD, they contended.

They also argued that a BJP-BJD alliance would not go down well with the grassroots cadres of the BJP who have no love for the BJD.

Swarajya spoke to several senior BJP leaders in Odisha to find out why the alliance formation talks were abandoned. Here's what we learnt:

Anti-incumbency factor: The BJD, as per state BJP leaders, is burdened with anti-incumbency. A BJP-BJD alliance would help the latter overcome anti-incumbency to a large extent without bringing any benefits to the BJP.

The party’s local leaders argued that the BJP would have to needlessly share the burden of anti-incumbency against the BJD.

Hard work for nothing: BJP leaders and workers have worked hard over the past few years to mobilise public opinion against the BJD, as well as strengthen the party organisation. All that work would go down the drain if an alliance was struck with the BJD.

Disillusionment would set in: Local cadres would feel disillusioned and let down by the party leadership in the case of an alliance with the BJD. They have campaigned intensively against the BJD over the last few years and were prepared to challenge the BJD in the forthcoming election.

In that case, a BJP-BJD alliance would amount to a betrayal of their efforts.

The Pandian factor: The BJP has been planning to make Naveen Patnaik’s choice of successor, the bureaucrat-turned-politician V Karthikeyan Pandya, a major electoral issue. As Pandian is a Tamil, the BJP is planning to turn this selection into an issue of Odiya pride. 

This approach has been evoking a good response on the ground for the BJP. A full-fledged campaign against a Tamil being 'imposed' on Odiyas is expected to reap electoral dividends. 

Patnaik is 77 years old and ailing, and will have to step down in a few years’ time. Handing over the mantle to Pandian would lead to an upheaval within the BJD, and the BJP can benefit from it.

A no-holds-barred campaign against a Tamil being chosen by Patnaik as his successor will strike a deep chord among Odiyas. 

However, an alliance with the BJD would force the BJP to shelve such a campaign and meekly accept Pandian as an ally.

Non-transference of votes: The BJP has cultivated a good and growing support base with its campaign against the BJD.

BJP leaders say that their campaign against the many failings of the BJD government headed by Patnaik has garnered the support of many.

A sudden alliance with their rival now will not only confuse supporters and turn many away from the party (the BJP), it will also not pave the way for transference of pro-BJP votes to the BJD.

BJP can do well on its own: Odisha BJP leaders point out that the party won eight of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in the state on its own five years ago. It had won just one seat in 2014.

In the simultaneous assembly election, the party bagged 23 seats, a handsome improvement over its tally of 10 assembly seats in 2014. 

The BJP’s gain in both the Lok Sabha and assembly elections has come at the cost of the BJD and Congress.

As per state BJP leaders, the party has gained in strength since 2019. They claim that the BJP can easily win 15 Lok Sabha seats and at least 60 of the 147 assembly seats on its own this time. 

Even though it may not be able to form the government on this occasion, a steadily weakening BJD would allow it to grow in strength further and come to power on its own latest by 2029.

Since the BJP can grow organically and become the dominant party in Odisha over the next five years, this long-term prospect should not be sacrificed at the altar of immediate gains, the state BJP leaders argued.

Ceding opposition space to the Congress: If the main opposition party (the BJP) enters into an alliance with the ruling party (BJD), it will create a large vacuum in the opposition.

The Congress, which is in a severe decline in the state and faces the grim prospect of being completely wiped out this time (it won just nine assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat in 2019), will definitely get a fresh lease of life.

A BJP-BJD alliance would allow the Congress to rejuvenate and take over the opposition space in Odisha, as the state BJP leaders told the party’s central leadership. This would impede the BJP’s goal of a 'Congress-mukt Bharat'.

BJP would be treated shabbily: The BJD will not give due importance to the BJP in a coalition government in the state. It will constantly try to undermine the BJP. That will lead to friction and affect the performance of the government, for which the BJP will be blamed. This would have demoralised many leaders and workers of the BJP.

Being a junior partner in a government in Odisha makes no sense, said state BJP leaders, more so when the party can form the government on its own in the future.

The BJP central leadership ultimately accepted these arguments made by state leaders and decided against an alliance with the BJD. 

Here's what made the central leadership make up its mind against an alliance with the BJD:

– The BJD’s consistent refusal to part with more than 40 assembly seats and 13 Lok Sabha seats for the BJP. The BJP had demanded at least 50 assembly seats and 14 Lok Sabha seats.

– The BJD’s refusal to accord proper respect to the state BJP unit soured the negotiations. The central party's state unit had demanded the deputy chief minister’s post and four of the most important portfolios, including home, finance, health, steel and mines, industries, electronics, urban development, rural development, and IT (information technology). (Read this.)

The BJD refused to entertain this demand and told the BJP that allocation of portfolios would remain at the discretion of Patnaik and be done after the election.

– The BJP central leadership also carried out its own independent assessment of the party’s electoral prospects and realised that the contentions of the state leadership about the BJP's strength and ability to win a good number of seats on its own were true. 

That’s why, after three weeks of talks that had reached a stalemate, the central leadership gave up the idea of forming an alliance with the BJD.

Now that plans for an alliance with the BJD have been abandoned, state BJP leaders have resolved to prove to the central leadership that their assertion about the BJP doing well in the state on its own is true.

"We will show that we have become strong in Odisha. We will now work towards winning a maximum number of both Lok Sabha and assembly seats,” Odisha BJP chief Manmohan Samal told Swarajya.

Also Read:

The Many Hurdles That Are Holding Up A BJD-BJP Alliance In Odisha

Though BJP And BJD Deny Rumours Of Forming Alliance In Odisha, Recent Developments Indicate Otherwise

BJP-BJD Alliance In Odisha Hits Roadblock Over Puri And Bhubaneswar Seats