The Many Hurdles That Are Holding Up A BJD-BJP Alliance In Odisha

Top leaders of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) have been holding intense discussions since the past few weeks over forming an alliance for the forthcoming Lok Sabha and assembly elections in the state. 

While the top leadership of both the parties have committed themselves, in principle, to forming an alliance, it is the nitty-gritty of seat-sharing that’s holding up the formation of the alliance. 

The Odisha unit of the BJP was not very keen on an alliance with the BJD, and only fell in line after a nudge from the party’s central leadership. 

The BJP’s Odisha unit believes that the party is gaining strength in the state and will benefit from mounting anti-incumbency against the BJD which has been ruling the state since 2000. 

An alliance with the BJD, state BJP leaders told Swarajya, will allow the BJD to neutralise this anti-incumbency to a large extent without bringing much benefits to the BJP. Thus, while an alliance will benefit the BJD, the BJP stands to lose more than what it will gain from this alliance, state BJP leaders contend. 

However, the BJP central leadership wants the alliance keeping an eye on the future. Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik is 77 and is ailing, and has been the Chief Minister for five terms and the next term (20224-2029) will be his last. 

Odisha will face a political flux once Patnaik steps down from office. Many senior leaders of the party are not well-disposed towards bureaucrat-turned-politician V K Pandian who is most likely to take over from Patnaik. 

In such a scenario, feels central BJP leaders, it will be advantageous for the saffron party to be in alliance with the BJD and reap the benefits of the post-Naveen Patnaik flux. 

While the state BJP leaders have, albeit reluctantly, agreed to the proposed alliance with the BJP, they have been insisting on a ‘good deal’. 

This ‘good deal’, it is learnt, includes the deputy chief minister’s post for a BJP nominee and at least four important cabinet portfolios. 

“We want at least four of the most important portfolios of home, finance, health, steel & mines, industries, electronics, urban development, rural development and IT. We also want the deputy chief ministership,” said a senior state BJP leader. 

The state BJP leaders have been successful in convincing the party central leadership to demand a fair share of power in the next state government. 

The state BJP leaders also want the two prestigious Lok Sabha seats of Bhubaneshwar and Puri (read this). While the BJP won the Bhubaneshwar seat in 2019, Puri is held by the BJD’s Pinaki Misra. 

The BJD, it is learnt, is willing to give the Bhubaneshwar seat to the BJP, but is unwilling to part with Puri. 

The two parties have, however, agreed on a broad seat-sharing formula for the Lok Sabha seats: while the BJP will contest from 13 to 14 seats of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the BJD will field candidates from the remaining seats. 

For the assembly elections, the BJD will contest a lion’s share of the 147 seats. The BJP has accepted, in principle, the BJD’s proposal to contest from about 47 to 50 assembly seats. The BJP won 23 seats in 2019 while the BJD won 112. 

But here again, it is some specific seats that are holding up finalisation of the deal. The BJP state leaders are insisting on some seats in the coastal areas of the state, especially in Puri-Cuttack-Bhubaneshwar belt that the BJD is unwilling to part with. 

The BJD is also reluctant to have a deputy chief minister from the BJP. Naveen Patnaik has never had a deputy, and does not want to make an exception for the BJP in what will inarguably be his last term in office. 

Also, the BJD does not want to give any of the most important portfolios of home, finance, industry and mines to the BJP. 

State BJP leaders argue that if the party has to share the anti-incumbency against the BJD, it should be duly compensated with some seats and portfolios of its choice. But the BJD leaders are refusing to accept that there is anti-incumbency against the party. 

State BJP leaders also contend that an alliance with the BJD will create a void in the Opposition space and the Congress will step into that void. 

“An alliance with the BJD will be like oxygen to the Congress and will breathe life into the party (Congress) which is in a coma now,” said a state BJP office-bearer. 

“We can easily win the state assembly elections on our own and will get at least 100 seats. Why, then, should we accept the BJP’s terms for sharing power?” asked a senior BJD leader who is also a state cabinet minister. 

But Naveen Patnaik himself, it is learnt, is keen on an alliance with the BJP. He feels that such an alliance will benefit his party in the long run. The BJP’s central leadership, which is on very good terms with Patnaik, share his sentiments. 

The central BJP leadership has been trying to sweeten the deal with the BJD by promising two plum portfolios in the third Narendra Modi government. A few other fresh promises are in the pipeline from both sides.

Leaders of both the parties who are involved in the negotiations told Swarajya that discounting some last-minute hiccups, an alliance between the two parties may be formalised in the next few days. 

Also read: 

Though BJP And BJD Deny Rumours Of Forming Alliance In Odisha, Recent Developments Indicate Otherwise

BJP-BJD Alliance In Odisha Hits Roadblock Over Puri And Bhubaneswar Seats