There's A Path To Victory For Annamalai In Coimbatore

Since the announcement of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) state president K Annamalai's candidature from Coimbatore, there has been considerable commentary over whether he can win the seat.

While Coimbatore is considered one of the strongest seats for the BJP, it is also an AIADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) bastion. And now that the two parties are not in an alliance, how things are going to play out is the million dollar question.

The last time the two parties were not in alliance was in 2014. The AIADMK then got 37.24 per cent and the BJP 33.62 per cent.

In 2019, when the two parties were allied, the BJP candidate C P Radhakrishnan got about 31.47 per cent again. 

While this may suggest a lack of vote transfer from AIADMK to BJP, it is to be noted that this was an election in which there was a strong anti-Modi wave in Tamil Nadu and actor Kamal Haasan's Makkal Neethi Maiam (MNM), the new entrant, got 11.65 per cent.

The Coimbatore Lok Sabha constituency comprises six assembly segments — Singanallur, Palladam, Sulur, Kavundampalayam, Coimbatore North and Coimbatore South, of which Palladam, Sulur and Kavundampalayam have rural and semi-urban pockets. The rest of the constituency is urban.

Swarajya spoke to people within the party and also those who closely work with the party to understand how they perceive the situation in the constituency.

The important takeaway from these conversations was that the party is having it tough in assembly segments that have a number of rural and semi urban pockets like Sulur, Palladam and Kavundampalayam. 

The other major challenges for the party in spite of the popularity of Annamalai and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are caste consolidation, the S P Velumani factor, the role played by minority votes and internal party issues.

The Rural Challenge

A top party functionary, who did not wish to be named, said that the 2019 anti-Modi wave, which was especially strong in rural areas has subsided.

"In a neutral situation, it is difficult in rural areas as AIADMK and DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) have staunch supporters. The sitting MLAs are from the AIADMK and that party has good second and third level leaders. Even when they lost the state in 2006 and 2021, they won here."

Regarding the challenge in rural areas, S Jaganathan, a long-time resident of the city and the founder of Verandah Club, which organises literature festivals, said that more work was being done to entrench the party's 'Lotus symbol' in the minds of the people.

Real Battle Between BJP And AIADMK Or A Tripolar Contest?

The other question that is being asked often is whether it is a tripolar contest or is the real battle only between Annamalai and Singai G Ramachandran of the AIADMK as the DMK candidate is seen to be weaker and relatively less known.

Ramachandran heads the party's IT wing and has academic credentials similar to that of Annamalai. Both went to PSG for their engineering degrees and subsequently passed out of IIMs.

The AIADMK has alleged that the DMK has fielded a weak candidate in Ganapathy Rajkumar as part of a deal with the BJP in order to secure bail for Senthil Balaji, who has been in jail since last June.

Addressing the question of whether the DMK is in the race, BJP state secretary S G Suryah said, “The DMK has a committed votebank, i.e. of ideologically inclined supporters and minorities.

"In 2021, though all MLA seats in the Coimbatore region were won by the AIADMK-BJP combine, the margins were not very high in some cases."

On the aforementioned allegations of the AIADMK, Suryah said that it is the DMK and the AIADMK that seem to have a tacit understanding. Giving examples of Chennai Central and Thoothukudi, where Dayanidhi Maran and Kanimozhi are contesting from, he said that the AIADMK has either allocated the seat to alliance partners or fielded weak candidates.

Minority Vote

The constituency also has a significant population of minorities. While they have generally voted for the DMK, this time is likely to be different as the AIADMK has split from the BJP and its leader Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS) has made a number of efforts to woo them. 

Suryah agrees that the minority vote, especially that of Muslims is likely to be split but at the same time says that there is a chance that they would consolidate behind either of the Dravidian parties if they want to defeat Annamalai.

"This time, all of the Muslim vote may not go to the DMK due to the posturing by the AIADMK and its attack on Annamalai.

"However, for them whether it is the DMK or the AIADMK does not matter much, if they want to defeat Annamalai. They could do tactical voting. The Jamat could take a call close to the elections based on who is ahead at the time."

The S P Velumani Factor

On S P Velumani, the AIADMK MLA from Thondamathur, considered to be the party’s strongman in Coimbatore, and seen as the man to beat in order to win the seat, a BJP member from that constituency said that the image is because Velumani has a good local connect and knows the in and out of Coimbatore. 

“He does a lot for his party cadre. He takes part in their family functions and helps them financially. All of that gets him their loyalty, making it difficult to beat him.”

AIADMK's Decision To Field A Candidate From The Naidu Community

On the issue of caste, political commentators say that the AIADMK’s decision to field a candidate from the Naidu community wouldn’t affect them because the Gounder community, which is the other dominant community in the seat, sees the AIADMK as 'their' party, especially after the rise of EPS.

EPS being the first chief minister from the community and his accessibility to them would play on their minds.

“It would actually help them consolidate votes of the Naidu community, many of whom support the DMK,” they say.

(Both Rajkumar and Annamalai belong to the Gounder community. But neither of them is seen as a 'Gounder' leader and Annamalai's following is across caste lines.)

Could Internal Politics Within The BJP Hamper Annamalai's Chances?

While Jaganathan said that he would not like to comment on the issue, Suryah said that he does not think it could affect the chances of Annamalai.

"At the most, people who do not like him, would not work actively. During our internal party poll, which was used to select the candidate, the overwhelming majority of district and state level functionaries from Coimbatore wanted Annamalai to contest.”

Factors That Could Make Annamalai Win

When asked about factors that could make Annamalai win, party sources who spoke with Swarajya said that they were counting on the traditional support base, his personal popularity, and the delivery of schemes such as PM Awas, Jal Jeevan Mission, and MUDRA loans by the central government.

"The narrative of the DMK being corrupt has struck a chord among people. The recent drug bust, Senthil Balaji's arrest in the cash-for-jobs scam, K Ponmudy's conviction and the ED's probe into illegal sand mining are also helping us get votes."

“The BJP usually gets what can be called a ‘Parliament election premium’ (jump in vote share) when Modi ji is on the ballot. I expect the same to happen in Coimbatore. This could help Annamalai lead over others and emerge victorious,” said Jaganathan. 

A full time party worker, who has been involved in multiple election campaigns, said that in the past few days, i.e., after the campaign began in full swing, the party was gaining traction across all strata of society, i.e., rich, middle class and poor across assembly segments and that should see him through.

People Are Looking For A Change

Signing off, Jaganathan says that he fervently hopes for an Annamalai victory. 

“The city needs a change. Annamalai is the best bet. He has already stated that if elected MP, he would be the city’s hotline to the Centre. 

“His nomination itself has been a blessing. The biggest beneficiary has been the electorate of Coimbatore. The DMK and AIADMK too have picked well-educated candidates. The DMK candidate has a PhD and the AIADMK candidate has been to IIM-A.

“A lot of people I know feel that Coimbatore has lost out over the last 10 years due to poor representation. With Modi at the Centre and Annamalai here, the city would be able to realise its true potential. We could get central institutions, better investments and infrastructure.”

Although there exists a route to victory for Annamalai in Coimbatore, the journey ahead will be challenging. It will entail an uphill struggle, with the assurance of success far from guaranteed.