UP 2022: Could This BJP Leader Be Party's Candidate From Pilibhit In 2024 In Place Of Varun Gandhi?

While the Samajwadi Party, with unusually numerous contenders for the MLA ticket on the Pilibhit Sadar seat, is struggling to decide on a credible and effective candidate to regain its lost political ground in the constituency, the BJP also seems to be eyeing other objectives in addition to retaining the assembly seat.

In view of the current Pilibhit MP, Varun Gandhi, publicly breaking from the party stand on many issues, some believe that the party is preparing its current MLA from Pilibhit Sadar, Sanjay Singh Gangwar, to be its potential Lok Sabha candidate from Pilibhit in 2024.

Gangwar was recently named the party’s candidate for the Pilibhat Sadar seat for the upcoming assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. Gandhi and Gangwar are not known to see eye-to-eye on many issues.

A Brief Electoral History Of The Pilibhit Assembly Seat

It was in 1957 that Niranjan Singh of the Congress Party was elected the first MLA of the Pilibhit Sadar assembly seat. The Congress won the seat again as Ramroop Singh was elected in the 1962 elections. Baburam of Jan Sangh emerged victorious in 1967, but only to be ousted after two years by Ali Azhar of Congress in 1969. Then, Dhirendra Sahay was elected an MLA twice, first in 1974 on the ticket of Bharatiya Kranti Dal, and again in 1977 from the Janata Party.

In 1980, Congress (E) made a comeback and Charanjit Singh became MLA. He was followed by Syed Ali Ashari of Congress, who won the seat in 1985. In 1989, Riyaz Ahmed, a close confidant of Sanjay Gandhi, became an independent MLA. The BJP then won the Pilibhit seat thrice in a row — BK Gupta for two successive terms in 1991 and 1993, followed by Raja Rai Singh’s victory in 1996.

SP’s late Haji Riyaz Ahmed made a hattrick of wins on the Pilibhit Sadar assembly seat as he held the seat for three consecutive terms from 2002 to 2017. It was only in 2017 that the BJP’s current MLA, Sanjay Singh Gangwar, riding on the ‘Modi wave’, successfully breached the SP bastion after 15 whole years.

Pilibhit’s Mandate In 2017

In the 2017 UP Assembly elections, the contest on the Pilibhit Sadar seat was mainly between Haji Riyaz Ahmed of the SP, and Sanjay Singh Gangwar from the BJP, who in 2012 lost to Ahmed by a margin of 4,235 votes, but on a BSP ticket. Given Gangwar’s strong Kurmi credentials, the BJP leadership got him into the saffron camp with an MLA ticket in 2017.

It turned out beneficial for both Gangwar and BJP and in the 2017 polls, he did manage to oust SP’s Haji Riyaz Ahmed, who was unbeaten on the seat since 2002.

In 2017, Gangwar got 1,36,486 votes (54.2 per cent vote share), and Ahmed, who stood second, got 93,130 votes (36.98 per cent vote share), a margin of victory of 43,356 votes.

The Electoral Equation For 2022

While the BJP has been backing its candidate, Sanjay Singh Gangwar, since early on, the SP leadership, in the absence of Ahmed, is yet to announce its candidate from the Pilibhit Sadar seat, where around 20 probable candidates are reportedly claiming the SP ticket.

Ahmed’s son, Shane Ali, and his son-in-law, Mohammad Arif, are the prime contenders for the ticket. Apart from this, 20 contenders including the likes of former chairman of the municipality, Rajiv Agarwal TT, Dr. Azam Mir Khan, Kasif Malik, Sudhir Tiwari, Mohammad Hanif, Nafees Ahmed Ansari, Yusuf Qadri, Dr. Nadeem Malik, Arun Verma, Mushtaq Ahmed, Mohammad Ajmal, Dr. Shailendra Gangwar, and Sardar Kulwant Singh etc., are demanding the SP ticket from the Pilibhit Sadar seat.

If we go by the community-wise breakdown of the population on the Pilibhit Sadar seat, there are around 11,000 Brahmins, 32,000 Dalits, 45,000 Kurmis, 25,000 Lodh, and 1,15,000 Muslim voters, among others. The Kurmi and the Muslim voters are considered to hold a decisive sway on this seat. Anyone who secures the majority of these votes secures their chance of winning the seat comfortably.

Gangwar’s Report Card

Before entering politics, Sanjay Singh Gangwar, 46, used to work as a contractor for Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) and the railways. During this period, he came into contact with political leaders and developed an interest in politics himself. In 2005, he was elected the block chief from Marauri.

Said to possess both money and muscle power, Gangwar established connections with prominent leaders of Pilibhit district and Bareilly division as well. As a result, he managed to get a BSP ticket in 2012 assembly polls but lost the elections and finished a close second. He then joined the BJP and broke the SP’s winning streak on the seat.

Gangwar is said to hold good influence over the Kurmi caste, which has a formidable presence in the Pilibhit assembly constituency.

He has made public the account of expenditure of four-and-a-half crore rupees for four years. When asked about his achievements in the field of education, Gangwar mentioned the under construction Atal Boarding School, which will benefit the students of two assembly constituencies of Nawabganj and Pilibhit, and an ITI college in Amariya region.

In the health sector, he boasted of the Pilibhit Medical College, construction of a 100-bed women’s ward, installation of CT scan machine, modern X-Ray machines, TB diagnostic machinery, and inauguration of a dialysis unit in the district hospitals.

In addition to this, he spoke of the provision of Rs 1,50,00,000 during the corona period from the MLAD fund, and additional Rs 40 lakh for setting up an oxygen plant.

Gangwar claimed that he has provisioned the construction of around 150-200 km of road and a couple of bridges as well. However, the local SP leadership has denied all these claims of development by Gangwar, and has pointed out mismanagement in educational institutions and the district hospital, and has also highlighted that roads and overbridges in the Pilibhit constituency are in an extremely poor state.

The Prospects Surrounding ‘Gandhi v/s Gangwar’ In 2024

In the recent past, BJP’s Pilibhit MP Varun Gandhi has constantly differed from his own party on important issues.

Recently, Varun Gandhi and his mother Maneka Gandhi were not included in the reconstituted national executive of the party.

In a tweet last month, Varun Gandhi criticised UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s decision to impose a night curfew in the state, pointing out that political rallies were going on in the state during the day. Before that, Gandhi was seen joining contractual workers in their protest against the state government. He has also been critical of the Central government’s farm laws.

Many reports suggest that Varun Gandhi and Sanjay Singh Gangwar have time and again made remarks against each other.

In an audio clip that went viral in October 2020, a person alleged to be Varun Gandhi was heard abusing Gangwar, former state minister Vinod Tiwari and former MLA and farmer leader BM Singh. While Varun Gandhi rejected the authenticity of the clip, Gangwar had said that “it is not the language of the BJP. We are taught to affix ‘ji’ after an elder's name.”

In June 2019, Gangwar, in an interview to a newspaper, said that he won’t say ‘Varun Gandhi Zindabad’ (Long Live Varun Gandhi). In response to his statement, Varun Gandhi, without naming Gangwar, said “Varun ko maarna to duur ki baat, ghayal karne ki bhi kisi mai ke lal mein himmat nahi hai” (Let aside killing Varun, no one can even dare touch him).

Other than these two instances, news of indirect confrontation between the two leaders is a feature of Pilibhit politics.

Many UP-watchers are of the view that the BJP sees an alternative to Varun Gandhi as the Pilibhit MP in Gangwar.

Given his recent statements, it is also being speculated that Varun Gandhi may fight as an independent candidate from Pilibhit in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, in case he fails to mend fences with the BJP leadership by then. If Gangwar is elected from his constituency of Pilibhit Sadar as an MLA again, he may well be on top of the BJP’s shortlist for the Pilibhit ticket in 2024.