UP Shows Gandhi Dynasty The Door, Opens It Wide For BJP; 10 Takeouts From Exit Polls

Exit polls are nowhere as robust as pre-poll opinion surveys, but there is a fair degree of consistency in what the exit polls are indicating about the recent round of assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Goa. It is only in Punjab and Manipur that the polls are totally confusing. Results are due tomorrow (11 March).

Of the six exit polls in Uttar Pradesh, which is the mother of all prizes to be won in this round, three polls (Today’s Chanakya, India Today-Axis, and Times Now-VMR) give the BJP a majority, while three others (ABP News-Lokniti, India TV-C-Voter, and India News-MRC) make the BJP the single largest formation, but well short of the halfway mark of 202.

In Uttarakhand, three polls give the BJP a majority, and two show it falling just short; in Goa, two polls show the BJP close to a majority, if not an actual majority.

So, assuming so many pollsters could not have got it so wrong, the BJP will rule three of the five states, with or without additional support.

The problem is with Punjab, where one poll gives the Congress a majority, one the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and three others a hung verdict. In Manipur, of the two polls conducted, one gave BJP the edge and another Congress.

Translated, this means both Punjab and Manipur are up for grabs, and the only certainty is the defeat of the Akali Dal-BJP combine. But either of the two major contenders could win, or lose, or end up with a hung assembly. Ditto for Manipur.

While one must add the caveat that exit polls are not final results, one can still draw broader conclusions from the indicated trends.

First, it is crystal clear the Modi magic has endured nearly three years of his prime ministership. There is no sign of any anti-incumbency. The Modi connect with the electorate has remained strong, and this is most obvious in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, where the party has no chief ministerial face. Narendra Modi took the risk of pitting himself against Akhilesh Yadav and he looks like winning. The results in Uttar Pradesh suggest that the BJP under Modi remains the primary pole of Indian politics, and in future it will take all-party Mahagathbandhans to defeat him in most states.

Second, the BJP under Modi has been successful in widening the party’s base beyond its traditional upper caste-trader community moorings. Demonetisation, which alienated the trader community, has been a major factor in making this shift obvious, as Modi is now seen as someone who can take on the rich, even his own base. He has created a class coalition as much as a caste coalition in Uttar Pradesh. This is no mean feat, and it could mark the beginning of the end of pure caste politics in India’s biggest state.

Three, the Congress party under the Gandhi dynasty is in serious decline, but spineless Congressmen seem unable to tell the dynasty the truth and tell them to take a walk. If the Congress party is to survive, it can only do so without the Gandhis, who serve no useful purpose anymore, either as vote catchers or as arbiters in intra-party feuds. The only logical alternative to a dynasty-bereft Congress is a federation of state Congress parties, including parties that broke away from the Congress, like the Trinamool Congress, the NCP, and the party’s existing leaders in states where the Congress still has a base (Siddaramaiah in Karnataka, Vir Bhadra Singh in Himachal Pradesh, Amrinder Singh in Punjab, Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan, etc). A federated party minus the dynasty can give the BJP a run for its money.

Fourth, the AAP is the rising star, having made a splash in Punjab, and a beginning in Goa. That Arvind Kejriwal has delivered little in Delhi does not matter, for he still represents change to many people in other states. The mere fact that AAP has come so close to power in Punjab means it is a viable option for votes that won’t go to the BJP. If Punjab has a hung verdict, it will benefit AAP, for in the next round, voters may well opt for real change instead of the Congress, as happened in Delhi between 2013 and 2015. In the first poll, AAP came second, and in 2015, it swept the city-state. In the short term, AAP will cost the Congress big, for the anti-BJP votes will get split, and Gujarat may well be the first state where this theory may be tested.

Fifth, pure caste-based alliances are in peril; the Bihar and Uttar Pradesh brand of MY coalitions – Muslim-Yadav – with the additional or subtraction of one or two other castes, will no longer be the norm. Caste may still be important at the constituency level, but at the aggregate, coalitions will be more class-based, and will be more inclusive in terms of castes. Current caste-community coalitions, like the MY coalition, are exclusionary and arithmetic based; they have outlived their utility. It is possible for Akhilesh Yadav, who retains his charisma despite a possible defeat tomorrow, to build a new coalition based on class aspirations which could include the MY coalition. But MY cannot remain as dominant as before – which is the reason for the BJP’s good performance this time. MY’s dominance alienated many other castes.

Sixth, in Punjab, where the AAP has emerged as a contender for power, the logic of the Akali-BJP partnership has become stronger, not weaker, after the current drubbing. This is because both AAP and Congress occupy the same political space, while the Akali-BJP tieup occupies a strong religion-based (Sikh-Hindu) space where both parties bringing something to the table. Sikh politics is unlikely to change despite the defeat of the Akalis this time around; the humiliating nature of the defeat may also be because many BJP voters could have switched to Congress this time to keep AAP out. Under Sukhbir Badal, a younger face, an Akali-BJP coalition would be a strong contender in 2019 and in the state polls of 2022, assuming they are not held earlier.

Seventh, the BJP’s strength means the party now must be more circumspect in ensuring its allies stay with it. Allies always feel threatened when the bigger partner grows in strength, as we saw with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, which broke away from the BJP for the recent local body elections. The message for the BJP is simple: give allies respect, and even though the BJP itself needs to grow, it also needs allies to support its growth rather than thwart it. In 2019, the BJP will need the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra.

Eighth, the BJP’s growing footprint, while threatening to existing allies, may conversely make it more attractive to allies in states where it is weak – like in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Kerala. In Tamil Nadu, with the passing of J Jayalalithaa and the slow political eclipse of ailing M Karunanidhi, the BJP can find new allies in either the DMK or the AIADMK. It is not inconceivable that it can work out deals where it gets a larger share of Lok Sabha seats while accepting a smaller share in assembly seats. Tamil Nadu, like other states, is also ripe for a departure from pure Dravidian politics, which has had a dream run of 50 years, and BJP can make a beginning by finding a good leader in the state. Many will be available from the likely splinters of the two main Dravidian parties in the near future.

In West Bengal, which has been cursed with minoritarian appeasement, the Hindu consolidation space is wide open. With a strong local leader and the Modi magic, the opposition space is for the BJP to take away from the CPI(M), which seems to have no new ideas. There is space for a Hindu party in the state because West Bengal has become too accommodative to Islamists. In Kerala, the BJP needs to target one of the community-based groups currently allied with the UDF to make a breakthrough.

Ninth, a win in Uttar Pradesh may finally give the NDA a small edge in the Rajya Sabha. As things stand today, the BJP is just three seats behind the Congress with 56 seats to 59. In the next round of Rajya Sabha elections, the BJP will probably streak ahead of the Congress, especially when UP and Uttarakhand seats come up for election. Even so, the NDA will need the support of neutral parties like Biju Janata Dal (eight seats), and regional parties like AIADMK, TRS, and independents, not to speak of estranged ally Shiv Sena, to get key legislation passed.

Tenth, the NDA will have a clear edge in the presidential polls due around mid-year. It would do well to consult all allies and neutral opposition parties in advance so that it gets its way in the crucial presidential and vice-presidential elections this year.