What Could Prevent A Third Term For Prime Minister Modi

Ever since the pran pratishtha on 22 January 2024, the mood in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is upbeat. Party workers believe that a BJP-led government will return at the Centre. While it is good to be confident, here are some reasons why BJP might not return unless it plays hard till the last result is announced.

1. Overconfidence (India Shining) did in the BJP in 2004. It was a premature campaign because India had a long way to go then and today too. Replace India Shining with Ram Mandir and one can see a similar approach. In 2004 too, it had won assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.

The party that takes the voter for granted, however justified the reasons may be, could be in for a rude shock. A voter may thus, because of ego being hurt, vote for another party only to teach the BJP a lesson even though he/she is a party supporter.

So the BJP must not be over-confident. Remember, the dividing line between overconfidence and arrogance is very thin. Different voters could interpret it differently.

Instead, the BJP must work harder than it did in the past and pray for a larger majority. Narendra Modi understood that in 2019 because he did not want be a one-term Prime Minister. This message needs to go to the rank and file.

Read:  75 reasons why I will remember Modi government

2. International powers who dislike India might create crisis to burst Modi’s Hindu credentials. For example, they could:

a. Take physical control of one of the Char Dhams. Weeks before polls it would be difficult for the Indian Army to send the intruders back. The dham closest to the border is probably Badrinath.

b. Organises terror attacks on the newly-made Ram Mandir.

c. Attack devotees who are driving down from Lucknow to Ayodhya or set fire to a train, Godhra style. 

Read: Did Godhra save Pakistan?

d. Create conditions by which riots take place, play the victim card and tell the media it is because of Uttarakhand UCC (Uniform Civil Code) and notification of CAA.

The deeper intent is to change the narrative just like Godhra did post the 2001 attack on Parliament and twin-tower attack of 11 September 2001.

These events are likely to take place in Hindi heartland states, Gujarat or Maharashtra.

It could also be a ploy to divert attention from the problems being faced by our adversaries and hurt the BJP’s poll prospects.

One can argue that Balakot air strikes that followed Pulwama Terror attacks helped BJP win in 2019. A counter is if the airstrikes had failed, the BJP would have lost. Luck and Ishwar may not favour the BJP every time.

3. In an attempt to break the INDI Alliance and form a government in Maharashtra, the BJP joined hands with a break-way Sena group led by Eknath Shinde. That was welcome. But getting the NCP (National Congress Party) into the state level alliance might cost the BJP dearly.

At the ground level, Udhav Thackeray’s Sena has support, thanks to its shakha network. Moreover, many NCP leaders are disliked a lot so notwithstanding Modi’s goodwill the party might lose because of local candidates.

4. West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are dominated by regional parties who might go to any length to win. BJP leaders are attracting crowds at rallies but will that convert into votes remains to be seen.

The BJP did well in Karnataka in 2019 winning 25 of the 28 seats. It was in power in the state then. A repeat performance seems unlikely with the Congress in power.

Outside the Hindi heartland, regional parties are the biggest challengers to the BJP.

5. Lack of Census — for reasons that are beyond the scope of this article the country did not have a Census since 2011. The impact of demographic changes is largely unknown and could spring a surprise across the country.

Adversaries of India and status-quoists in India realise that a third term for Modi might change the face of India significantly. So, every effort will be made to stop the BJP’s return. Let us not underestimate their resolve and hatred — it is a do or die situation for them.

Message for BJP workers — the more successful one is, the more humble one should be.