Why The Time And Place Of Amritpal's Arrest Raises More Questions Than Answers

NSA fugitive Amritpal Singh was held by the Punjab Police this morning under circumstances that raise more questions than answers.

While the police's official statement mentions arrest, news reports talk of Amritpal surrendering to the police from the Gurdwara Janam Asthan Sant Khalsa of Rode village in Moga.

For those not familiar, Rode was the native village of Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale. It was also the place where Amritpal had gotten his dastarbandi conducted, following which he delivered a highly xenophobic and communal speech.

If it is indeed true that the Punjab Police let the man surrender, then it is worrisome. Amritpal had earlier tried to surrender in front of the Akal Takht on Baisakhi day. However, it did not materialise for reasons still not understood.

Either way, the act of him surrendering would turn him a hero for the extremists, making him seem like a man who did things on his own terms.

This makes Punjab Police and the state seem weak as it couldn't nab him for more than a month. Why did that situation fester for so long?

Another important question is the venue.

Knowing well the significance of Rode, how did Amritpal manage to "surrender" there?

He has been trying to portray himself as the next Bhindranwale, be it in body language or speeches. What was the need then to 'let' the surrender happen there?

Khalistani voices are now trying to portray him as a hero, somewhat in the league of a hero for the "qaum". His mother's rather political statement of "godde lavaa ditte police ne" (made the police bend on its knees) is much to reflect on for those who are trying to show it some sort of victory of the police and the state government.

What happens from here is subject to much speculation for some. However, three things become increasingly obvious.

• One, Amritpal's legal defense will be organised and efforts will be sought to get him out of Dibrugarh and from the ambit of the National Security Act.

• Second, the Khalistani extremists will try to rally around him as a figure and seek to bolster popular opinion in their favour.

• Third, Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann and the police will try to show this as some sort of personal victory, alienating himself from Arvind Kejriwal.

The first two are also rather important to watch for one reason particularly.

Will the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC) and the Akal Takht Jathedar involve themselves in the legal proceedings for Amritpal?

They are caught in a tight corner of their own making. Having fanned communal flames by providing legal and financial assistance to various kinds of terror sympathisers and people like those who murdered Sudhir Suri, they will invite criticism from the extremist sections if Amritpal doesn't get the support.

However, that in turn will alienate them from large sections of the society that is anyway worried about the turn taken by these decision-makers of the panth, undermining their credibility.

While making forecasts is dangerous, one fears if this path is tread.

Either way, the Khalistani extremists are seeking to embolden their spirits.

What we can predict is the outcome of the coming legal battles. If the Punjab Police and the central agencies don't present a strong enough case, it can backfire and cause embarrassment, further strengthening Amritpal's hand.

In the third scenario, we see a strange situation. Given how Bhagwant Mann is gaining strength within Punjab's politics by the day, there is an oddity of supposed supremo, Arvind Kejriwal, losing grip.

Given his battles in Delhi in multiple cases of corruption and legal overreaches that threaten his very political legitimacy, an attempt has been made to regain the lost space by pushing the entire Punjab government to work for the Jalandhar bypoll.

But what if Bhagwant wants to not play ball? What happens then to the AAP's prestige fight to re-enter the Lok Sabha?

Which brings us to the Jalandhar bypoll, a wild card event of sorts going on.

Given all that's going on in the backdrop, we are seeing that no party wants to cede space. Even the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has expressed its keen interest with its choice of candidate in the form of Inder Iqbal Singh Atwal.

What is certain is that there is a four-cornered contest. Will the people repose faith in AAP, which it will play up as regaining the confidence of the people of Punjab?

Or will Congress, the original winner, the Akali Dal (Badal), and BJP snatch it away from them and expose the frailty of the government again?

The arrest's timing also raises questions, as some people are now wondering if this will benefit AAP in any way. Yet, the questions against them also show potential to cause an undesirable backlash.

Things are not simple as they seem right now. With the continuing moving parts of this puzzle, we need to keep watching the security situation of Punjab.