How BJP's Dhaval Patel Navigated The 'Barometer Seat' — Ground Report From Gujarat's Valsad

“Barometer seat” is what you get to hear as soon as you strike a conversation with anyone in Valsad about this Lok Sabha seat.

As we reach Ronvel village of the Dharampur assembly seat passing through the picturesque roads, Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP’s) candidate from the Valsad Lok Sabha Dhaval Patel is addressing a public meeting here, “Our Valsad is a barometer seat. Those who win in Valsad form the government at the Centre. This means the people of Valsad are the smartest in the country. People here are known to catch the pulse of the nation. Valsad decides who rules the country.”

Later in the day when Swarajya spoke to Dharampur’s MLA Arvindbhai Patel, who was accompanying Dhaval Patel on his campaign trail, he reiterated the same but with some more context and an intriguing theory.

“Valsad is a barometer seat. In 1996 and 1998 Manibhai Chaudhari (BJP) won from here with a sliver of a margin. So even while (Atal Bihari) Vajpayee’s coalition government was formed at the Centre, it fell in a short time. In 1999, BJP won here with a slightly better margin. We completed the full term at the Centre but it was still a coalition. Also when Janata Dal formed the government at the Centre (in 1989), it also won the Valsad seat.”

There is some truth to his theory, Chaudhari secured 198,531 votes against 198,163 of Congress’ Uttambhai Patel — a victory margin of just 368 votes. Vajpayee formed the government that lasted 13 days. In 1998, BJP’s victory margin increased to 17,276 votes in Valsad (then Bulsar). Vajpayee’s premiership lasted for less than 2 years.

Arvindbhai then enthusiastically extrapolates the theory to the present, “In 2014, when Narendra Modi won more than 272 seats, BJP won Valsad with a margin of more than 2 lakh. And then in the 2019 elections, the margin was 3.5 lakh and we got 303 seats at the Centre.”

“And now if we want ‘400 paar’, we have to increase the margin in Valsad,” he opines, “there is no doubt about victory. We want the margin. If the margin is less here, it’ll affect the Centre. This is an interesting facet, this is a barometer seat. Even whenever Congress used to get a full majority, their margins here were huge.”

Vansda’s Victory In Vansda Versus Vansda

While this notion of being a barometer seat excites the voters, Dhaval Patel shares another one about his native village and assembly seat Vansda in Swarajya’s conversation with him.

“Since the Valsad Lok Sabha was formed, for the first time someone from Vansda will become a Member of Parliament. Valsad Lok Sabha is spread across three districts — Valsad, Dang and Navsari. Valsad has five Vidhan Sabha seats, Dang has one, and Navsari too has one which is Vansda. So Vansda never got a chance earlier,” says Patel.

“And this time both candidates, from BJP and Congress, are from Vansda. But there is a strong mood in BJP’s favour. This will lead to increased voting in Vansda and more so in the favour of BJP. There we are going to win by a huge margin.”

Anant Patel, the incumbent MLA from Vansda is now Congress’ Lok Sabha candidate from Valsad which is an ST (Scheduled Tribes) reserved seat. As an incumbent, some believe, he too has some influence, especially in Vansda.

“Anant Patel is also strong as he is an incumbent MLA, has the post. He knows how to navigate and get things done,” says a local at Dhaval Patel’s public meeting in Bodlai village.

However, he is quick to add, “But his (Anant Patel) sole focus on tribals have upset other sections like OBCs and general categories. Public is not coming to his rallies in urban areas. So now he has changed his words. Now he is talking about ‘Sabka Saath’ and that we will take everyone along.”

“His Election Issue Is Dhaval Patel”

On being asked about his opponent Anant Patel’s charge that Dhaval Patel is an outsider and not a real adivasi, the latter coolly replies, “his election issue is Dhaval Patel and Dhaval Patel’s election issue is a developed Valsad LS,” borrowing straight from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s penchant for sleek oneliners.

“They will make all kinds of accusations like Dhaval Patel is an outsider. But I am from Vansda which comes under Valsad Lok Sabha. I have good support from people here. And I thank Modi sahab and BJP for trusting a small karyakarta like me.”

“It's been more than a month since my name was announced. I have been campaigning since then. Not even at a single place have I taken my opponent’s name. But people come and tell me that the opposition candidate keeps uttering Dhaval Patel’s name in every meeting, every speech, every rally. Now I feel even in his sleep he only thinks of Dhaval Patel.”

So while Anant Patel presents himself as an adivasi leader, Dhaval Patel labels this identity assertion as “distraction”.

“We don’t want to get in all this talk of distraction. We move on the back of quality development based on which we are getting strong public support. And therefore, the opposition candidate has no real issues. We want to uplift the adivasi samaj and each community, that is our priority.”

A Localised Campaign In Sync With The National Issues

Dhaval Patel's campaign in Gujarat’s Valsad was unique in that he seamlessly blended issues like Ram Mandir, corruption, and Congress’ wealth redistribution promise with central welfare schemes meant for tribals, farmers, and villagers.

While he pointed to PM Modi for a strong central leadership saying every vote for him is a vote for Modi, he also made sure to put before people his educational background and his work among tribals across the country which includes authorship of two books — 75 Tribals Freedom Fighters of India and Modi With Tribals.

Arvindbhai vets the same to Swarajya, “Our present candidate here is educated and young. He is close to Modi sahab, Amit bhai, BL Santosh ji. He has worked among the tribals across the country and has seen their lives up close. He has written two books too on tribals. He has goodwill among the people as well as the party's central leadership.”

Addressing a public gathering in Bhoma Pardi village, Dhaval Patel launched a scathing attack on Congress, “Our Lord Ram is imaginary, false, and there is no Ram or Ramayan. This is what Congress said in an affidavit in the courts. On one side were senior lawyers like Kapil Sibal obstructing Ram Mandir and on the other side for Ram Mandir our lawyers fought cases in the High Court and Supreme Court. But if there were a Congress government today, they wouldn’t have allowed the construction of Ram Mandir. It is our Modi saheb who has enabled the construction of such a magnificent temple in just three years… and after 500 years our Lord Shree Ram has returned to his home.”

Contrasting the mood in the country during Ram Mandir’s pran prathishtha — “there were the bhagwa flags, Ram flags all across and the atmosphere in the entire country was festive” — with Congress decision to boycott the ceremony, Patel reminds the people that “Modi saheb, in his large heartedness, invited Congress leaders for the pran prathishtha but Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi and Mallikarjuna Kharge did not participate.”

“And some Congress leaders who dared to participate were suspended from the party. Now the people who are such Ram-virodhi, such Hindu Dharma-virodhi, such Sanatan Dharma-virodhi, do they deserve your vote? Do they? Although this is the bastion of BJP, Congress doesn’t deserve even the odd votes that it gets from here,” he said to the voters in Gujarati.

In yet another public meeting in Anjlav village, sufficiently attended by the women, youth, children, and the elderly, he targeted Rahul Gandhi’s wealth distribution promise and raises the issue of inheritance tax.

“Congress has brought out such a manifesto and even Rahul Gandhi says in every speech that they will conduct a survey in the entire country. Congress government will survey and take away your land, your wealth, your gold-silver. Not just that, Congress says that after death 55 per cent of your property will be taken away by the Congress government as tax and only 45 per cent will go to your children. They are thinking of bringing such a dangerous tax. Modi sahab is opposing this new law in his speeches across the country. People are protesting it. But Congress is unrelenting and says with full impunity that whatever may come, we will bring this law and take away your wealth.”

“For the first time Congress has been out of power for 10 years. They are used to doing corruption worth lakhs of crores. So now they want to do the recovery of these 10 years that they have lost. First they looted the government’s money and now they’ve reached our homes. They shouldn’t get even one vote. They get 50 odd votes from here. I urge you to warn those 50 voters too that Congress is after their wealth too.”

“Look at Modi ji’s manifesto, it talks about solar setup in 1 crore houses. This will not only reduce your electricity bills but will also become a source of income as the government will purchase the excess electricity from you. Modi sahab has increased the free ration for 80 crore families up to 2029. During Corona, he ensured free vaccination when Congress was ridiculing our India-made vaccines. When Modi sahab became Prime Minister, he started Jan Dhan accounts. Congress made fun of that too that these are ‘zero balance accounts’ of no use. But our Modi ji is a visionary. Today all the money is transferred directly to your Jan Dhan accounts.”

Mini-Charcha With Dhaval Patel — Panna Pramukhs, Welfare Schemes, And Opposition Candidate

While in Bhoma Pardi, we caught up with Dhaval Patel for a quick chat while he was sipping tea sitting on a traditional jhula found in the courtyard of most houses in Gujarat.

Edited excerpts:

Swarajya: You call Valsad a barometer seat and there is history of contests here between BJP and Congress, and now it is too considered a BJP bastion. What are the reasons for this shift?

Dhaval Patel: Whoever wins Valsad, forms the government at the Centre. Today, Valsad is a BJP bastion. People here have seen Modi sahab’s development since he was the chief minister. As Prime Minister also he has delivered on roads, infrastructure, bullet train, and most importantly Astol Pariyojna in this area. It has been revolutionary in providing water to the tribal community in hilly areas here.

Modi sahab’s work for villages and especially tribals is a complete game changer. Free ration that began during Corona in 2020 was continued till 2024, and now it has been extended to 2029. It’s a real game changer for the poor.

Take Kisan Samman Nidhi. People think it's only Rs 6,000 but it is a big amount for villagers. In our area, 15-20 people from a family have their names in the land papers, each gets this Rs 6,000. So in reality, every house gets lakhs of rupees. There are people who earn more from this than from their farming. You can further ask people about PM Awas Yojana.

The labharthis and people are very happy. The traditional local media tries to create a mahaul against Modi sahab in every election. They tried this in the last election too. But we won with such a huge margin.

Swarajya: What is the situation across the seat? Some say Congress’ Anant Patel may give you a tough fight in Vansda.

Dhaval Patel: There are seven assembly seats in Valsad Lok Sabha. We are very strong in six assemblies which have BJP MLAs. The seventh one, Vansda is held by Congress MLA and the opposition candidate (Anant Patel). I too am from Vansda. So we will win that too. We will win all the seven seats with huge margins. And for the first time a lad from Vansda will become the Valsad MP.

This time again Modi sahab will become the Prime Minister with 400 seats. We have already won two seats, Surat and Indore. 398 remain to be won. We will win Valsad with a margin of more than 5 lakhs.

Swarajya: We hear about BJP’s booth management a lot. But we saw a comparatively lower voter turnout in the first two phases. Is that a cause for concern?

Dhaval Patel: The thing is that BJP voters have actually come out to vote due to our strong booth management. But Congress voters are already dejected. They are not winning so they think there is no point in going out and voting.

The Page Committee or ‘Panna Pramukh’ management of Paatil sahab (Gujarat BJP chief C R Paatil) is very impactful. You see, each page of the electoral list of a booth has around 30 names. One of them is made a ‘Panna Pramukh’. He is asked to leave everything else and his only job is to get those 30 people on that page to vote. This is the level of booth management across Gujarat. And Congress has no cadre here. Our cadre gets people out to vote.

In entire India, Gujarat BJP is the most powerful and organised unit. In the last assembly elections, Paatil Sahab gave a target of all the 182 seats and created a record by winning 156. Also, six out of the 16 winners from Congress have already joined our side. More will come soon.

Swarajya: Is there no resentment among the workers about people from Congress joining the party?

Dhaval Patel: No negativity around that. We welcome people who want to do the politics of development.

As the public gathers for the rally, Dhaval Patel and Arvindbhai Patel are joined by Gujarat’s Finance Minister Kanubhai Desai who represents Pardi assembly seat.

Swarajya’s Other Interactions On The Trail

The locals have overwhelmingly supported the BJP. Ramji, a local, told Swarajya, “even without any campaign BJP will get all votes in the village". He added, “see the roads anywhere, even in the village gullies, they are well made. There are paved blocks in every home. We have street lights in every village. We get Nal Se Jal.”

When asked about the impact of Kshatriya agitation going on in some parts of Gujarat, especially in Rajkot, they were dismissive.

“Agitation itself has split internally. Also, there is nothing against Modi. So for one person who spoke badly, they won’t spoil the seat. They might not vote at all but will not vote for Congress. That will not hurt the BJP. There is no impact of the andolan here.”

Sitting in his courtyard, watching Dhaval Patel’s public meeting in Anjlav from afar, was Subhash Patel. He works in a trust run by Atul Chemicals. On being asked why he isn't at the meeting, he said, “We are all BJP people since Janta Party and Morarji Desai. No one looks at candidates. All votes will come in the name of Modi. Though our candidate is young and educated also. Who does Congress have? Who will vote for Rahul Gandhi?”

“We just hate the Congress. Earlier Congress had some traction in backward classes but no more. Because of development they have also become aware. Congress used to fool everyone earlier but now people understand everything. Fake videos don’t work anymore. We OBCs have been strongly with BJP. There are some with Congress but only those who have some personal benefits involved. There are some Muslim votes in Dumadiya Falia (a village neighbourhood), they come to BJP meetings but won’t vote for them. Entire community votes together,” he told Swarajya.

On the situation of employment in his village, he told Swarajya, “I work in a private job. Vapi to Ankleshwar is an industrial belt. There is no lack of employment. This noise about unemployment here is all false. We don’t get labour and workers for small works easily. Those who want to work can find work. As incomes are rising, inflation is rising because wants are also increasing.”

On development and social welfare he lauds the mandatory corporate social responsibility (CSR) policy. “CSR policy of Modi ji is very good. All companies have to spend 2 per cent towards social welfare. That has also helped. Roads are very good here. I don’t see any problem. Other than that work proceeds as per government plans and policies.”

In a quick interaction with Arvindbhai Patel, the Dharampur MLA who was accompanying Dhaval Patel, Swarajya asked him, “How are you making sense of these elections and what are the major issues here?”

“It is a tribal belt and ST reserved seat. Modi sahab’s schemes like Van Bandhu Kalyan Yojna, which has been running since he was CM has worked very well. Development has happened. Road, water, 24-hour electricity, and in the agri-sector too. Income for the tribals have increased,” said Arvindbhai talking about various benefits.

“Aayushman Bharat health insurance has helped many families. It is 10 lakh in Gujarat after the state government added 5 lakh from its end. Kisan Samman Nidhi, the aged from BPL also get pension, widows also get this. Free ration is also being given since Corona. So all these things matter here.”

“From six out of the seven assemblies in Valsad to the gram panchayat, taluka panchayat, zila panchayat, municipalities, municipal corporations to the state government, all are ruled by BJP. Party’s organisation is micro-planned here. BJP’s booth level management is very strong right up to ground level.”

On Dhaval Patel’s campaign trail, one could see as many family members as there were party workers and sarpanchs of the villages.

His cousin Sandeep Patel who along with several other family members accompanies him on the campaign trail said, “All of us have come down to support him. In the evenings while heading back Dhaval bhai listens to our feedback about his speeches and the issues raised. Once we are back, all of us get together and give our reports and inputs to him about people’s needs from different areas. Accordingly, he dials his phone and gets their work done. We are also realising that it is as if the whole family is fighting the elections.”

A party worker explains that the campaign begins at seven in the morning and ends post late midnight (sometimes even later) which he said has no bearing on their or Dhaval Patel’s enthusiasm for interacting with people.

He continued, “the massive public meetings are all usually scheduled in the evenings when people are back from their work in the fields. These are preceded by an exhausting village hopping during the day where Dhaval Patel addresses smaller public meetings either at village temples or sarpanch’s office.”

While we accompanied Dhaval Patel on the campaign trail in Dharampur, one thing that is certain is the fast pace of the campaign due to the desire to visit as many hamlets as possible and meet as many people as possible.

The only casualty in this seem to be one or two cars which get separated from the racing campaign entourage and get lost only to play catch up. As did we, at one instance.

Nevertheless, we were able to get some sense of Dhaval Patel’s campaign in Gujarat’s Valsad which is voting today (7 May) in the Phase 3 of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.