The Election That Was Baramati: Will Emotion Triumph Over Organisation?

The Baramati Lok Sabha constituency in Maharashtra was one of the 11 seats that went to polls on May 7. A low turnout of 56.07 per cent was registered in this high profile constituency.

Swarajya visited Baramati a few days before polling to bring you this report.

It was 1 pm post noon. A convoy of more than 25 vehicles zipped past villages along the under construction four-lane state highway which runs from Pune to the famed pilgrimage town of Pandharpur.

Our vehicle, a nearly decade old model of Tata Sumo, was unable to keep pace with the Toyota Fortuners and Mahindra Scorpios that made up the convoy.

A few kilometers away from Baramati town, the convoy turned left towards Shelgaon, a village which is part of the Baramati Lok Sabha Constituency’s Indapur State Assembly Seat segment.

The almost butter smooth road (a rarity in rural parts of Maharashtra) built under the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana, was flanked by tall stalks of sugarcane on its either sides. As the pilot vehicle of the convoy entered the village, a large crowd waiting in the village center, least bothered by the scorching summer heat, exploded- Victory to the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)! Victory to Ajit ‘Dada’ Pawar!

Ajit Pawar, the now politically estranged nephew of the octogenarian leader Sharad Pawar, who joined the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti coalition by wresting control of the NCP, was here to address a rally on behalf of his wife Sunetra Pawar.

The latter, who had hitherto remained aloof from electoral politics was the Mahayuti-NCP candidate for the Baramati Lok Sabha constituency against her sister-in-law and sitting Member of Parliament (MP) Supriya Sule.

This time, Sule, who has represented Baramati three times in a row and is the only offspring of Sharad Pawar, was contesting for Baramati from her father’s newly formed Nationalist Congress Party-Sharadchandra Pawar (NCP-SP).

The Thackerays of Mumbai and the Pawars of Baramati are undoubtedly the two most influential political families with a state-wide appeal in Maharashtra.

The Thackeray family broke into two factions almost two decades ago when Raj Thackeray, the nephew of its patriarch and Shiv Sena leader Balasaheb Thackeray, left the latter to form his own Maharashtra Navnirman Sena.

On the other hand, Pawars with their patriarch Sharad Pawar at the helm, were considered as an ideal example of a united family. Photographs of the family’s annual Dipawali celebrations held at Govindbaug, senior Pawar’s residence in Baramati, prominently featured on the first pages of the regional Marathi newspapers.

However, it has never been the same ever since Ajit Pawar took reins of the party founded by the senior Pawar in his own hands.

Although it was the senior Pawar’s daughter and the rebel nephew’s spouse who were contesting for Baramati in the 2024 Indian General Elections, this was the first electoral face-off between the uncle and nephew’s rival versions of the previously undivided NCP.

The outcome of this poll fight will be closely watched as it can potentially set the tone for the upcoming 2024 Maharashtra State Assembly elections.

Demography Of The Baramati Lok Sabha Seat

The Baramati Lok Sabha Constituency consists of six State Assembly seats, all part of the Western Maharashtra’s Pune district, namely- Khadakwasla, Bhor, Purandar, Baramati, Daund and Indapur.

According to a statement issued by the Returning Officer for the Lok Sabha Constituency, a total of 23,62,407 voters were eligible to cast their votes on the 7 May, the polling day.

The expanse of the constituency and the variations in terms of the demographic profile pose a challenge to the candidates here.

While Bhor, Purandar, Baramati, Daund and Indapur are mostly rural, the Khadakwasla assembly segment is home to a large white-collared formally employed working crowd with almost all areas in it being a part of the Pune Municipal Corporation's jurisdiction.

Notably, though small in size, Khadakwasla had 5,34,125 registered voters, the highest among all state assembly seat segments that make up the Baramati Lok Sabha Constituency.

On the polling day of May 7, these were the figures for voter turnout in each of the six Assembly segments:

Baramati: 64.50 per cent

Indapur: 62.50 per cent

Khadakwasla: 50 per cent

Purandar: 48 per cent

Daund: 57.80 per cent

Bhor: 58.52 per cent

Experts say, it is the electoral lead achieved in the assembly segments of Khadakwasla, Purandar and Baramati which could be a game-changer for either of the candidates.

At present, legislators of Baramati, Daund, Indapur and Khadakwasla are with the BJP-led Mahayuti. This supposedly gives Ajit Pawar-led NCP candidate Sunetra Pawar an edge over the NCP-SP candidate Supriya Sule.

“However, it is difficult to make concrete assumptions about this constituency as it is for the first-time two members from the same family are up against each other. Moreover, political equations have also changed sharply post the NCP split,” said Nilesh Jadhav, a local journalist who contributes to ANI as well as other regional publications.

An indicator of the fast changing political equations was the spectacle at Ajit Pawar’s Shelgaon rally.

Here NCP leader Ajit Pawar was felicitated jointly by his party colleague and Indapur Legislator Dattatray Bharne along with Harshwardhan Patil, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader from Indapur.

Seeing this, a village elder sitting next to me said, “See how funny this is- Bharne, Ajit Pawar and Patil exchanging greetings with each other. Back in 2014 state assembly elections, Bharne was deliberately fielded by Pawar as an independent candidate from Indapur against Patil by defying the coalition dharma when the latter was in Congress. Then Patil had sworn to teach Pawar a lesson. Now all are together saying let’s vote Modi once again.”

Apart from such political shifts, a look at the numbers from the past two general elections of 2014 and 2019 gives us insights into the voting trends within the constituency.

The Baramati Lok Sabha seat has long been on the target of the BJP. In 2014, when the BJP-led Mahayuti fielded its ally Rashtriya Samaj Party’s Mahadev Jankar against NCP’s Supriya Sule, Jankar had managed to reduce Sule’s victory margin by 17.58 percent. It was the state assembly segments of Daund, Purandar and Khadakwasla where Jankar had received a lead then against Sule.

Later, in 2019, when BJP pitted Kanchan Kool, spouse of Rahul Kool- saffron party's sitting legislator from Daund, against NCP’s Sule, Kool had received a lead in Daund and the largely urban Khadakwasla segments.

According to political analysts, the BJP-led Mahayuti had been unable to wrest control of the constituency only because Ajit Pawar in the previously undivided NCP firmly held sway over the Baramati and the Indapur assembly segments. It is in these assembly segments where co-operative sugar factories and banking institutions play an important role.

At present, most co-operatives in these parts such as the Baramati Co-Operative Bank, Baramati Co-Operative Milk Association and the co-operative sugar factories at Malegaon, Bhavani Nagar and Someshwar Nagar are controlled by Ajit Pawar-loyalists.

Considering this, it might seem that the Ajit Pawar-led NCP candidate Sunetra Pawar stands a good chance to grab Baramati Lok Sabha constituency from Sule.

However, the mood on the ground indicated that it was a fight among equals.

Voters here differed in their choices not just between different age groups but also with-in the same age group.

For instance, Avinash Bhujbal, an employee of the Baramati Co-Operative Bank and Santosh Yede, a lawyer at the Baramati Courts, though of the same age group and fast friends, differed strongly in their voting choices.

When Bhujbal asserted that the Ajit Pawar-led NCP's Sunetra Pawar has better chances of winning, considering all major co-operative bosses are on her side, Yede counters the same by saying, “Your alarm clock (i.e. polling symbol of NCP) might be well organised and flush with funds but the lay masses are on the side of the man blowing tutari (i.e. the polling symbol of NCP-SP).”

Caste Calculations

Whether it was the Ajit Pawar-led NCP’s rally in support of its candidate Sunetra Pawar or NCP-SP’s rally in support of its candidate Supriya Sule, close attention was being paid to get the messaging intended for different caste groups right.

For instance, at the NCP rally venue in Shelgaon, Ajit Pawar was felicitated on the stage by a group of youth from the Dhangar community. The community youth honoured Pawar by placing a ghongdi (i.e. a woolen blanket) over his shoulders, giving a cane stick in his hand and gifting him an image of Balu Mama, a saint revered by the community. Ghongdi and the cane stick are both symbols of the community’s pastoral roots.

This was then followed by a group of men with yellow scarves around their neck prominently displaying their caste organisation name- Koli Mahasangh, posing for photographs while felicitating Ajit Pawar.

On the other hand, at the NCP-SP women’s rally in support of the party candidate Supriya Sule at the Mission High School grounds in Baramati town, speeches made by the cadre were replete with references to Ahillyabai Holkar, 18th-century ruler of the Indore-Maheshwar princely state, who hailed from the Dhangar community.

An orator who was attending the rally on the rally-organiser’s request even drew parallels between Supriya Sule and Ahilyabai Holkar.

“Raghunathrao, son of Bajirao Peshwa had tried to wrest control of Ahilyabai Holkar’s fief Indore by thinking that she is a vulnerable woman. She fought back and retained Indore. Similarly today, efforts are on to take Baramati away from Supriya Tai. She is putting up a strong fight, it is your duty as voters to help her now,” the orator said.

This was followed by a speech on Savitribai Phule, spouse of the 19th-century social reformer and educationist Jyotiba Phule, who hailed from the Mali community.

Notably, both Dhangars and Malis, part of the Other Backward Classes (OBC) category, have a strong presence in parts of the Baramati Lok Sabha constituency. According to estimates of cadres from both parties, Dhangars account for 25-30 percent of the constituency’s population, only next to the dominant Maratha caste. Malis on the other hand count 15-18 percent of the constituency’s population in their fold.

A strong OBC presence is also said to have been the reason why the newly formed OBC Bahujan Party fielded its candidate- Mahesh Bhagwat against both NCP’s Pawar and NCP-SP’s Sule here.

Pawar’s ‘Original DNA’ Versus The ‘Labharthi’ Factor

Whether it was the rallies held at Shelgaon, Baramati or the one held at Nimgaon Ketki, one sentence had been constant in Ajit Pawar’s speeches- “Remember voters, this election is not a fight for the gaavki (i.e. traditional rights) or the bhaavki (i.e. blood relations), nor is this a fight to settle personal scores. This election is to ensure that Baramati continues to be a part of development path envisioned by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the entire nation.”

Added to this rhetoric was the supposed advantage to Ajit Pawar owing to influence of the co-operatives controlled by his confidantes.

A single co-operative sugar factory can have members ranging from 20,000-30,000. While those who benefitted in terms of jobs or dividends from the operations of the co-operatives are referred to as the 'labharthis' by those on Ajit Pawar's side, NCP-SP leaders referred to the same as 'Malida Gang,' meaning those who seek cut-money.

By consistently aligning the fate of the Baramati Lok Sabha constituency to the BJP's pan-India development pitch, Ajit Pawar through his public addresses attempted to divert the electorate's attention from the emotional appeals made by the other side.

In a largely rural constituency like Baramati, a rift in the family and the younger ones asserting themselves independently against the elder patriarch may not have gone well with the middle-aged and older voter's psyche.

For instance, Baban Pawar (62), a resident of the Sonwadi village in Baramati constituency, was unhappy with Ajit Pawar having wrested the control of the party from his uncle.

“All members of the Pawar family are dear to us as voters. However, Dada (i.e. Ajit Pawar) has crossed a line here by seizing control of a party (i.e. the NCP) which was built from scratch by Saheb (i.e. Sharad Pawar),” Pawar said.

When asked as to what was wrong in Ajit Pawar asserting his leadership considering that it was him who had personally taken interest in developing Baramati, Pawar disapproved the same by saying,“So what? It is because of the opportunity given and faith reposed in Ajit Pawar by Saheb that the latter could do whatever good he did. Original credit of all things good here undoubtedly goes to Saheb.”

Taking note of such sentiments, NCP-SP’s campaign had largely been a play on emotions. This was evident through the speeches made at the NCP-SP women's special rally at the Mission High School ground in Baramati.

Alluding to the importance of family in the Indian society, Rohit Pawar, NCP-SP’s Jamkhed Legislator and Sharad Pawar’s grandnephew, took a dig at Ajit Pawar and PM Modi by saying,“Dada (i.e. Ajit Pawar) is on the side of that very PM Modi, who deserted his wife after marrying her. Tell me sisters, will such a man know about the worries of a family man and value bonding among family members?”

This was followed by speeches from the other Pawar family members on NCP-SP candidate Supriya Sule’s side.

Sharmila Pawar, spouse of Ajit Pawar’s sibling Shrinivas Pawar, while taking a jibe at NCP candidate Sunetra Pawar and her husband and NCP chief Ajit Pawar said,“We as daughter-in-laws are indeed a part of the Pawar family. However, as voters, you should never forget that Saheb’s (i.e. Sharad Pawar) original DNA is in Supriya Sule.

"Just because she is his daughter and not a son, does it mean that she is not a rightful claimant to Saheb’s legacy?”

Lush Green Fields For Baramati, Hollow Promises For Others

A single Baramati taluka has three state-government run hospitals, a chain of functioning primary health centres, an airport, a railway station, a new bus terminus, several colleges and schools.

But more importantly, the town with a population of just 54,415 receives water daily even in peak summer. Almost 70 percent of the Baramati taluka along with parts of the neighbouring Indapur taluka comprises vast swathes of horticultural farms full of water intensive crops like sugarcane and grapes.

"All this is thanks to the water sourced from the Nira Left Bank Canal that flows through the taluka. Additionally, as per need and availability, water is sourced from the Nazare Dam near Jejuri and the Janai-Shirsai Lift Irrigation Scheme which sources water from the Khadakwasla canal that ends down the plateau near Patas.

Go to villages 20-30 kilometres away from Baramati towards Saswad and Purandar and all you can see is empty fields and people lining up near water tankers," said Kailas Mutkule, a resident of Morgaon in Baramati taluka who works in a fabrication unit in the town.

Large parts of the Baramati Lok Sabha constituency, barring the exception of Khadakwasla and Bhor assembly segments located close to the Sahyadri Mountains, are a part of the infamous 'rain-shadow' region. Average rainfall recorded in these parts is below 500 millimeters.

However, fortunes for few parts of the constituency changed back in 1885 when the colonial government started works on laying the Nira Left Bank and the Nira Right Bank Canal on the plateau, which source waters from the Bhatghar dam in the hills. Subsequently, work was also undertaken in the early 20th century to lay the Khadakwasla canal from Khadakwasla dam near Pune to Patas near Indapur down in the valley.

But the challenges posed by the undulating terrain meant only a few villages along the canal's route could benefit. To alleviate the irrigation backlog, the Congress led state governments post 1980s had executed the Janai-Shirsai Irrigation Scheme (JSIS) and the Purandar Lift Irrigation Scheme (PLIS) post the year 2000.

This, however, did not aid the farmers as expected since waters from the JSIS were sourced from the tail-end of the Khadakwasla canal where water levels are relatively low. PLIS on the other hand meant no respite to the farmers as the waters for the same are sourced from the heavily polluted Mula river, making it non-potable.

"The real game is this- PLIS is useless as water flow in Mula river is very low and polluted. In fact, large volumes of water that are meant to flow into the river are already diverted to the Khadakwasla canal way before it reaches the extraction point. The Khadakwasla canal in turn supplies water to JSIS which benefits those parts of Baramati Taluka which are not covered by the Nira Left Bank canal.

"Sum total of all this is- everything for Baramati and one family, nothing for others. What Purandar got is a show-piece in the form of PLIS," Mutkule said.

Similar is the situation in parts of the Daund assembly segment down in the valley, which are away from the Mula river and Khadakwasla canal.

A politician like Ajit Pawar is aware of this situation in the constituency beyond Pawar's home-turf of Baramati.

"It is this simple- you press the button next to NCP symbol- the ticking clock- and consider that the water has started flowing in to your fields. If you don't do that, remember I am still the Finance Minister of the state until the state assembly polls," Ajit Pawar said in the rally at Shelgaon.

This did not go down well with the voters in Purandar who read reports of the same in regional newspapers.

"This arrogance will cost them (i.e. Pawars) some day. We were pinning our hopes on Shinde Sena's Vijay Shivtare who had been consistently highlighting the developmental backlog in other parts of the Baramati Lok Sabha constituency. He was expected to go against the coalition dharma and file nomination against Sunetra Pawar. He too backed off after a settlement with Ajit Pawar.

Such is our dilemma that despite not being in favour of the NCP and having a strong disdain for its leadership, we are forced now to choose between its two versions," said Samadhan Gunjal, a property agent from Memane Pargaon, a village in the Purandar assembly segment of the Baramati Lok Sabha seat.

As the day came to a close, we headed back to Baramati. Near a bus stop on the outskirts of the town, I asked a group of villagers sitting on the benches sipping tea about their voting choice. More than half of them said that it will be NCP-SP's Supriya Sule while a few said that it will be NCP's Sunetra Pawar.

One among them was Hanumant Jadhav, an electrical technician, who summed up the voter's predicament.

"Prior to the split- Tai (i.e. Supriya Sule) for Lok Sabha and Dada (i.e. Ajit Pawar) for Vidhan Sabha was the fixed pattern here. Both are equal in our view. However, when it comes to making a choice between Tai and Dada's wife now, we cannot afford annoying either of them. Most of us will take the decision on the spot on the polling day," Jadhav said.

This report is part of Swarajya's 50 Ground Stories Project - an attempt to throw light on themes and topics that are often overlooked or looked down. You can support this initiative by sponsoring as little as Rs 2,999/-. Click here for more details.