Why It Would Be Interesting To Track South Goa Result On Counting Day

South Goa, known for its pristine beaches, churches and centuries-old temples built by the Kadambas polled on 7 May.

While North Goa has traditionally been a stronghold of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the south has remained largely loyal to the Congress. Its high percentage of Catholic voters holds the key in any election, with women also being another formidable force that can swing the verdict.

This time around, a former Navy man, Capt. Viriato Fernandes had been declared the I.N.D.I alliance's candidate while the BJP nominated Pallavi Dempo, one of Goa's richest industrialists to wrest the seat away from the Congress.

Goa's Indifferent Voting Patterns

South Goa consists of 20 assembly constituencies, of which the BJP holds 12 in the current assembly: Ponda, Siroda, Mormugao, Vasco Da Gama, Dabolim, Nuvem, Margao, Navelim, Curchorem, Sanvordem, Sanguem and Canacona.

Congress has Cuncolim and Quepem, with the Aam Aadmi Party being in power in two more seats — Benaulim and Velim. Statistically, the BJP had an advantage, but when combined, the Congress with the support of the AAP and other alliance members were hoping to put up a strong fight against the BJP.

For the Lok Sabha, Goa has mostly voted one seat each to the BJP and the Congress. In 1999 and 2014, the BJP did manage to win South Goa, but could not retain it after that.

This time, with industrialist Pallavi Shrinivas Dempo as its candidate, the BJP hoped to especially win over the women voters in the constituency.

Dempo family's association and contribution to the Goan football ecosystem has also helped their campaign prospects in the urban pockets of the constituency. Dempo is the executive director of Dempo Industries, and is an entrepreneur and an educationist by profession. She has an MBA degree from MIT, Pune and also oversees the media and real estate arm of the industries.

Her husband, Shrinivas Dempo, is a renowned industrialist who heads the Goa Chamber of Commerce and Industries (GCCI). Dempo is the first woman candidate in Goa to contest on a BJP ticket.

'Constitution Forced On Goa'

Capt. Viriato Fernandes, the Congress candidate for South Goa has a background in the Indian Navy. He promised a corruption-free rule in the constituency and alleged that the BJP has attacked Goa's 'asmitai'.

Apart from the major 'guarantees' made by the Congress, protecting the environment, safeguarding Mhadei river — a crucial source of water for Goa was his election agenda.

But unlike other states where there were massive rallies, day and night canvassing for the candidates, Goa's election campaign was quite easy-going. Most MLAs know their constituents by name or address and are cordial with each other despite having political differences.

Another major issue that Capt. Fernandes had taken up was the promise to continue the Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) facility till dual citizenship rights are achieved for Niz Goemkars and denationalisation of rivers in the state to procure better rights over them.

Captain Viriato also landed in a controversy, when he stated that the Indian constitution was "forced" on Goa after its liberation from the Portuguese rule.

The BJP went hammer and tongs on the issue, incriminating Fernandes for making a 'separatist' statement.

Catholics Upset With Congress?

Congress went door-to-door with its promises, but apparently did not get an encouraging response.

"But we are unaware of any of these promises", said Ganesh, a vendor in the Margao fish market who is a resident of South Goa. He said that he was aware of the guarantees made by the Congress, but as far as the local agenda was concerned, most voters decide whom to vote for at the very last minute.

"We are being given a document with the signature of the Congress workers, but until we receive any benefits, we will not believe anyone", Ganesh said. His family hails from Bijapur in Karnataka, but has settled in South Goa since the last two decades and had voting rights in the state.

There are a few reasons why the Catholic voters may have been upset with the Congress in this constituency.

One, the sitting MP Francisco Sardinha was denied the Congress ticket. His loyalists were upset that the MP had not been given another chance to represent the constituency.

Two, alleged confusion and lack of coordination between the I.N.D.I alliance partners and its leaders in Aam Aadmi Party and Goa Forward Party not actively campaigning for the candidate. GFP's Vijay Sardesai reportedly expressed no interest in supporting the Congress candidate, while AAP leaders were reported missing on the ground.

Three, in a battle of resources, Capt. Fernandes stood little chance in front of the multi-millionaire BJP candidate Pallavi Dempo.

'Reginaldo Betrayed Us'

Swarajya visited the I.N.D.I alliance office in Curtorim, a crucial seat where the former Congress loyalist Aleixo 'Reginaldo' Lourenco had declared his unconditional support for the BJP and had been campaigning on the ground for Pallavi Dempo.

South Goa NSUI president Shane Rebello felt that the Revolutionary Goans Party had been propped up by the BJP to potentially split votes of the Congress. While the Congress was confident of gaining a lead in assemblies like Quepem, Cuncolim, Velim, Benaulim and Fatorda, they were still weak in the hinterland areas of Vasco, Margao, Mormugaon to name a few.

Rebello said that Reginaldo had betrayed the party, despite the Congress offering many opportunities to him.

"BJP is very weak in Salcete. Congress is expected to get a massive lead here, that should be helpful for us to sustain a victory with over 10,000 votes as the margin", Rebello says. Shane is the son of Congress leaders Moreno and Michelle Rebello.

"He (Reginaldo) defeated Sardinha in '07, and won with a Congress ticket in 2012 and 2017. He should be grateful to the party for that", Shane added.

In 2017, the Congress had 17 MLAs in the state assembly, among which 10 defected to the BJP. Back then, only Reginaldo remained loyal to the Congress.

In the last assembly elections, he decided to contest as an independent candidate, with an alleged tacit understanding with the BJP. Although his margin reduced, he managed to win from Curtorim.

Trends in South Goa

Apart from Reginaldo, a former Chief Minister belonging to the Congress, Digambar Kamat, also joined the BJP. Because of his shift, the Hindu votes have supposed to have been consolidated behind the BJP this time. The Goud Saraswat Brahmin (GSB) community were also said to be pleased with Dempo's candidature.

Another outfit, the Revolutionary Goans Party, spearheaded by Manoj Parab declared a candidate for South Goa in Rupert Pereira. In a close contest, even polling 5,000 votes could make or break an election. BJP felt that the votes polled by RGP could help them gain an advantage over the Congress, since they targeted a specific voter base.

In a three-way contest, the BJP always had an advantage over the Congress. This was evident in 1999, when the saffron party won the seat for the first time. Back then, BJP's Ramakant Angle won against Congress' Joaquim Alemao with a 15,000 vote margin. Congress held South Goa strongly until Churchill Alemao became its MP for the first time in the mid-90s as the United Goans Democratic Party chief.

The BJP has also managed to make some inroads into tribal pockets of Quepem, Sanguem and Canacona. With the BJP focusing on holding nukkad sabhas — a strategy followed by former Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar — Dempo may have a decent chance at winning the seat.

With some important loyalists jumping guns, the BJP may have had a tactical advantage over the Congress.

Key Takeaways

When votes are counted on 4 June, the South Goa election would likely be decided by a narrow margin. On the INDI Alliance side, key Congress leaders complained in private of going bankrupt and receiving little to no support from the high command as far as resources were concerned.

On the BJP's side, a last minute push by PM Modi and Amit Shah seemed to have made a lethargic campaign suddenly energetic.

Key to winning: women voters. They outnumber men in 18 of 20 constituencies.

This will be an interesting result to track on 4 June.