The Tide Turns: West Trails East In The Second Wave Of Moon Missions

When the world first set its sights on the Moon, the nations leading the charge were the two battling superpowers, the United States (US) and Soviet Union (USSR).

That was the first wave of lunar missions, beginning in August 1958 with the world’s, and US’, first-ever attempt to fly to the Moon and ending two decades later with the successful return of a lunar sample by the Soviet Luna 24 mission in August 1976.

Moon missions then went quiet for more than a decade, until Japan’s Hiten/MUSES-A mission broke the dry spell in January 1990. This launch didn’t start a flood as one might have expected; lunar missions remained sparse. There were only four lunar missions until 2007 before China and India made their maiden appearances on the scene by way of Chang'e 1 in 2007 and Chandrayaan-1 in 2008, respectively.

China and India’s entry on to the lunar scene forced open the next wave of lunar exploration missions. These two countries alone accounted for seven lunar expeditions from 2007 to 2023 (Chang’e, Longjiang, and Chandrayaan), with several more planned through to the 2040s, with the end goal of landing and sustaining human life on the Moon.

This second wave, following the first one from the late 1960s through much of the 1970s, has been joined by the two superpowers from the yesteryears, though one of them wears a very different, depleted look now, with the erstwhile Soviet Union narrowing down to Russia.

Through its Artemis programme, the US plans to lay the foundation for a sustained long-term presence on the lunar surface. Additionally, it intends to use the Moon to validate deep space systems and operations before embarking on the much farther voyage to Mars. For the US, therefore, the Moon is a stepping stone to Mars in this second wave of lunar exploration. 

Russia, meanwhile, has to go back to basics once again and then advance from there. Unfortunately, it failed to land on the Moon in its first attempt since 1976, after the Luna 25 spun out of control and crashed into the lunar surface in August 2023.

Interestingly, the US must also go back to basics. Though they have a comprehensive, farsighted plan involving the Moon and beyond, they, too, will first need to do the preliminary things right — orbit the Moon, land there as per plan, and operate from there multiple times, before an attempt is made to land humans and set up a lunar orbital and surface base over the course of multiple missions lasting at least a decade.

For now, the US has fallen short in their first attempts to return to the Moon after more than five decades. Two American companies launched missions to the Moon in partnership with their space agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), earlier this year.

Astrobotic’s Peregrine spacecraft lifted for the Moon in early January, but a propulsion anomaly detected shortly after launch robbed the craft of its ability to execute a lunar landing.

It did its time in space, even covering the entire lunar distance, before returning to break up in the Earth’s atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean.

Intuitive Machines' Odysseus touched down on the lunar surface successfully in late February, becoming the first US spacecraft to accomplish a Moon landing in more than 50 years, and the first ever by a private company.

However, it broke a leg or two upon landing and tipped over onto its side near the lunar south pole, hampering its solar power and communication. It lost power and fell silent a week after the descent. The cause was a navigational issue on account of human error.

As for the flagship Artemis programme, it was pushed back by a year in January. NASA announced a new goal for landing humans on the Moon, aiming for late 2026, which is a year later than originally planned. Even this timeline, however, might be overly optimistic.

The spacecraft to ferry and land the first American astronauts of this era, SpaceX’s Starship, has already gone down twice during test launches. The Starship rocket will need to launch successfully into low-Earth orbit and then repeat the feat several times before it can get down to the proper crewed Artemis launch.

What’s more, the Artemis campaign is set to cost $4.2 billion per launch of the Space Launch Vehicle rocket. That’s a lot of money to be spent launch after launch, with all the hardware just ending up in the ocean each time, as revealed by George Scott, NASA's acting inspector general, to CBS News.

All this is to say that the Artemis timeline might be stretched way more than is currently anticipated.

On the other hand, China and India, fresh off of their Moon mission successes all in this century are making confident moves ahead. Both countries are planning lunar sample return missions, that too from the unexplored regions of the Moon, as well as landing humans and setting up outposts there.

Expect the numbers accompanying the words “Chang'e” and “Chandrayaan” to rise up considerably over this decade and the next.

As part of this lunar exploration journey, India is also partnering with Japan, which is itself a confident space force after accomplishing a “pinpoint,” precise lunar landing earlier this year, though not without tipping over and ending up on its head.

South Korea, too, lapped up a lunar success recently by installing an orbiter in late 2022, and has ambitious plans for lunar exploration in the future. Though it failed in its lunar landing attempt in 2019, Israel will also be itching to go again with a Beresheet sequel, planned for launch this year.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which had its Rashid rover on board the failed Japanese ispace’s Hakuto-R Mission 1 lander, is also putting itself out there on the lunar exploration scene. It is said to have expressed its interest in collaborating with the planned Beresheet 2 mission.

Moreover, with Beijing looking to become only the second country to land humans — “taikonauts” — on the Moon by 2030, Washington might come under increasing pressure if and when its Artemis timelines get pushed beyond 2026 towards the end of this decade.

After all, Musk's forecast of when SpaceX can land humans back on the Moon is closer to 2030. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson has already expressed worry publicly about China reaching the lunar south pole with humans before the US.

Might it be said, then, that the West, despite having ‘been there, done that’ in the past, now trails the East in this second wave of lunar exploration? Or is this simply more a case of the West coming back around to lap the East while the latter takes its first major steps?

The balance of lunar exploration has shifted tremendously in this century, at the very least. Rest, we’ll probably have to wait and watch.