Lok Sabha Elections 2024: BJP Might Cut Ticket Of One-Fourth MPs In Uttar Pradesh To Counter Anti-Incumbency

Considering the unity of the opposition, the Uttar Pradesh BJP is contemplating denying tickets to approximately one-fourth of its sitting MPs for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. This decision comes amidst the need to accommodate allies and address anti-incumbency sentiments against certain leaders.

According to BJP sources, these MPs, including some Union ministers, mainly from western and eastern UP, may be replaced by leaders already within the party. This reshuffle is also being considered in other states.

The MPs who may be dropped include those who have crossed the unofficial age limit of 75, failed to establish a connection with the masses and party workers, and have been ineffective in their constituencies.

Some of these MPs had previously defeated high-profile opposition candidates in 2019 but have since faced controversies and are not widely popular among voters.

A list of such MPs has reportedly been prepared and will be shared with the central leadership during the candidate selection process. Another list is being prepared for sitting MLAs and ministers in the Yogi Adityanath government who may be considered for Lok Sabha tickets to maintain social balance.

However, a few candidates who contested but lost in 2019 may also be excluded from receiving tickets. Some of the constituencies where the BJP faced defeat were Shrawasti, Ghazipur, Ghosi, Lalganj, and Mainpuri.

A senior BJP leader mentioned that some MPs who may not receive Lok Sabha tickets could be offered Rajya Sabha seats later, especially those who are part of the Union Cabinet. There are 11 BJP MPs from UP who are part of the Union Council of Ministers.

They include Rajnath Singh (Lucknow), Smriti Irani (Amethi), Mahendra Nath Pandey (Chandauli), General (retd) V K Singh (Ghaziabad), Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti (Fatehpur), Sanjeev Kumar Baliyan (Muzaffarnagar), Pankaj Chaudhary (Maharajganj), SP Singh Baghel (Agra), Bhanu Pratap Singh Verma (Jalaun), Kaushal Kishore (Mohanlalganj) and Ajay Kumar Mishra ‘Teni’ (Kheri).

To assess the performance of MPs, the party has collected feedback, including from booth-level workers, particularly regarding their participation in party programs.

The Maha Jansampark Abhiyan, currently underway since June, is one of the programs being scrutinized. BJP leaders have been directed to engage with people and discuss the Modi government's schemes as part of this campaign.

The party has closely monitored each MP, analyzing their utilization of MPLAD funds and their involvement in voter outreach activities.

Poor turnout at their rallies and overconfidence in winning solely based on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity have been viewed unfavorably by the BJP. Fresh faces will be fielded to counter anti-incumbency and provide renewed hope to voters.

The final decision will be made by the central leadership, taking into account survey findings from agencies. These surveys will provide insights into the BJP's position compared to opposition parties on the ground, the dominant political and social issues in each constituency, and the image of the local MP as well as potential replacement candidates.

With 80 seats, Uttar Pradesh is a crucial state for any party aiming to win the Lok Sabha elections. In 2019, the BJP won 62 seats, while its ally Apna Dal (S) secured two seats. The BSP and Samajwadi Party formed an alliance and won 10 and five seats, respectively. The Congress managed to win only the Rae Bareli seat.

For the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, the BJP is expected to form an alliance with the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and allocate at least one seat to them. The party is also considering granting seats to the existing ally Nishad Party.

The possibility of an alliance with Jayant Chowdhury-led RLD is still open, and if formed, non-Jat candidates may replace Jat MPs in certain seats to secure support from their respective castes alongside the Jat support from the alliance with RLD.