Uttar Pradesh: Despite All Problems, BJP Is Still Favourite For Securing A Third Straight Term In 2027

This is a translated and edited excerpt from a longer conversation on the What This Means podcast with political commentator Amit Yadav, about all that is happening in Uttar Pradesh politics. To listen to the full episode on Spotify, click here, and for the app, click here.

1. What's happening in Uttar Pradesh politics, especially with respect to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Samajwadi Party (SP)?

What was visible post-4 June, after the Lok Sabha results, remains consistent regarding the BJP and SP. The leaders and supporters of the SP are very positive after the kind of wins they added to their kitty in the LS elections. And the BJP leaders and supporters are quite negative, and a lot of changes are needed to be made to overcome it.

However, at the moment, I do not see any significant changes taking place within the state BJP. I believe the party is waiting for the bypolls to conclude, after which major changes may be made in the party and its functioning.

2. Among the 10 seats that will go for bypolls in UP this year, 5 seats were with the SP, 3 with the BJP, and the two with NDA allies RLD and Nishad Party. What is the situation right now on these seats?

Most likely there will only be gains and losses of 1-2 seats out of these 10 bypoll seats, rest of the results will remain the same. However, one cannot say for sure, as it all depends on which alliance fields which canditate.

• Merrapur (Muzaffarnagar): This seat was won by the RLD in the 2022 state assembly elections, which they fought in alliance with the SP. Muslims, Jats, and Gujjars dominate this seat, of which the Muslim population is the highest. 

• But now, RLD is in alliance with the BJP, so this seat can witness a close fight and will be difficult for RLD.

• Kundarki (Moradabad): This seat is a Muslim dominant seat. SP leader Zia-Ur-Rahman Barq had won this seat in the Vidhan Sabha elections, and it is likely to remain with the SP.

• Sisamau (Kanpur Nagar): On this as well, the BJP has less chances of winning, as it is a Muslim-dominant seat. SP will most likely retain this seat.

• Karhal (Mainpuri): This seat was SP chief Akhilesh Yadav's seat. It is a Yadav-dominant seat, so again, the BJP hardly has any chance of winning this seat. Kundarki, Sisamau, and Karhal — these three seats are easy wins for the SP.

• Katehari (Ambedkar Nagar): This seat again was with SP, but this time, BJP has chances of winning this seat. Yogi Adityanath is personally looking after this seat.

• Milkipur (Ayodhya): This seat (SC reserved) was with SP's Awadhesh Prasad, who is now a Lok Sabha Member of Parliament from Faizabad. From this seat, SP is giving the ticket to his son, AJit Prasad, which, in my opinion, could end up being the wrong decision for them.

• The BJP has a chance of winning this seat, and Yogi Adityanath is looking after this seat.

• The remaining three seats — Marawan (Mirzapur), Ghaziabad (Ghaziabad), and Khair (Aligarh) — were with the BJP and are likely to remain with the BJP in this bypoll as well.

• Phulpur (Prajyagraj): This is a Muslim, Yadav, and Kurmi dominant seat. This seat will witness a close fight and will be interesting to watch as the BJP will give the ticket to a Kurmi. In the LS elections, Kurmi votes shifted to the SP. So, we have to see who will fight on this seat (SP or Congress), and will they give the ticket to a Kurmi candidate as well.

However, the byelections will have no significant impact or influence on the state elections in 2027.

3. On one hand, the BJP has been retracting a few of its decisions, including in UP, like the digital attendance for teachers, on the other hand, the state's Police Constable exam, for which over 50 lakh aspirants had applied, was recently conducted smoothly over a 5-day schedule. How do these events impact the narrative or voters in the state's politics?

One should remember that with respect to LS results, it was the BJP's worst performance in UP in recent time, even then, they had a lead in the majority of the assembly seats, and it was SP's best performance. So it is very likely that the BJP will only gain from here.

Moreover, if you see, SP got votes from every community to some extent. So they cannot gain more votes from the BJP's kitty. This was SP's best performance, and it will be very difficult for the SP to shift voters from the BJP to itself now. But the BJP can win back the support of people in the 2027 assembly elections who shifted to SP/Congress during the LS elections.

In the present situation, the BJP can easily win 175-180 seats out of the 403 assembly seats in UP. They need to work hard for just 30 seats to win the assembly elections, they have three years, they are in power, and hence can shape the narrative in their favour.

And events like conducting the Police Constable exam smoothly in the state, without any paper leak or chaos surely help in building a positive image of the government. Paper leak incidents had dented the Adityanath government's image, especially among youth. 

The Adiyanath government has a positive image and strong support from the people when it comes to law and order issues; similarly, the government in these three years ahead of the state elections should make sure to conduct the upcoming exams on time, with transparancy, and without any chaos or incidents of paper leaks. This will not only add to their positive image, but solving these problems of the youth will also help them gain their massive support.

The digital attendance for teachers was a good decision by the government, but teachers also have a strong union, so there was pressure on the government to take it back.

But I would say this is a time when the BJP should avoid going for any reforms both at the national and state level because when there is a negative perception of you, whatever the reform, people will be quick to jump to negative conclusions, as right now people are more keen on listening to what the Opposition is saying.

4. Do you feel the BJP has been taking corrective measures in the last two months and acknowledged that all was not well in UP? What about the recent membership drive launched in Lucknow by the BJP's minority wing, will that help the BJP?

I don't think this will help BJP. I am saying this because Muslims and the Yadavs are going to vote one-sided for the SP, so the BJP should not put too much of its energy for nothing.

However, what would be better for the BJP is to focus on the OBCs and SC/STs who are slowly moving away from them, the voters who recently shifted to SP and the Congress in the LS elections. 

If you look at the SC/STs, they haven't moved away from the BJP that much, most of it was because of the false reservation narrative that the Opposition was successful in peddling in UP. Otherwise, the BJP still has strong support from these communities.

In the case of the OBCs, Kurmi is one such community that has been moving away from the BJP slowly since the 2022 assembly elections in the state. And it is because of BJP's own mistakes. BJP's ticket distribution was poor in the Lok Sabha. They did not give more tickets to Kurmi candidates in central UP, especially in the Awadh and Devipatan regions, whereas SP fielded more Kurmi candidates from here.

You cannot ignore a large caste like the Kurmi in UP and not face consequences. Also, when it's clear that Muslims and Yadavs are not going to vote for you (BJP), you cannot overlook the importance of the caste equation.