Uttar Pradesh: In A Rajput Vs Brahmin Contest, BJP Receives A Bhumihar Boost In Ballia

Former Cabinet Minister in Uttar Pradesh and former Samajwadi Party (SP) MLA from Ballia Nagar, Narad Rai extended his support to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Monday (27 May).

This comes a day after SP national president Akhilesh Yadav allegedly insulted Rai on stage (as appears from the visuals) during his rally in Ballia. He neither let Rai speak, nor mentioned him in his speech.

After this, Rai called a meeting of his community members as a show of strength. Soon after this, he met Union Home Minister Amit Shah and said that 'he will work for the nationalist ideology'.

This gives a much-needed boost to the BJP candidate Neeraj Shekhar, son of the former Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar, who is a Rajput by caste.

Rai belongs to the Bhumihar communities and the two 'upper castes' -- Rajputs and Bhumihars -- are not known to get along well politically in the region.

If Rai's accommodation in the BJP manages to pull a considerable chunk of the Bhumihar votes to the party, then Shekhar's victory can be ensured.

Shekhar had earlier won this constituency as an SP candidate in 2008 by-polls and the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. He then lost to BJP's Bharat Singh in 2014 and later joined the BJP.

The SP candidate here is Sanatan Pandey, from the Brahmin community. He lost the 2019 elections to BJP's Virendra Singh Mast by a margin of just 15,000 votes.

Hence, he is being considered a formidable challenge to Shekhar. He was able to get around 46 per cent votes in 2019. He is said to have a solid voter base of Brahmins, Yadavs and Muslims with 35 per cent votes.

As per a Varanasi BJP functionary quoted by TNIE, there are 13 per cent Rajput voters and 20 per cent non-Yadav OBC, Baniya and SC voters that the BJP can rely upon.

The key to victory remains in the hands of 9 per cent Bhumihar voters. Especially, in a scenario where SP candidate is consolidating Brahmin votes in Upendra Tiwari's absence.

Tiwari is a former MLA from Phephana, an Assembly segment under the Ballia Parliamentary constituency and served as a Minister in Yogi Adityanath's first government.

He too is a Brahmin by caste and gained fame by defeating a senior leader Ambika Chaudhari. After the loss in the 2022 Assembly elections, he was expecting a Lok Sabha ticket for himself.

When the ticket was given to Shekhar instead, he was not seen campaigning enthusiastically for him.

Moreover, Shekhar is also expected to bring some SP votes to the BJP, which was his personal voter base when he was in the SP. With Rai bringing some Bhumihar votes, a possible attrition of Brahmin votes can be countered.

The results will be known on 4 June but Rai's support for the BJP again proves Amit Shah's skill of getting people on his side. Raghuraj Pratap Singh aka Raja Bhaiya was an exception.