What Went (Almost) Wrong In Varanasi: A Preliminary Analysis Of PM Modi's Reduced Victory Margin

Apart from the losses in Ayodhya and Amethi, what stunned many BJP supporters was the reduced victory margin of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Varanasi, a constituency he has been winning since 2014.

In 2014, the victory margin was around 3.7 lakh votes. In 2019, it increased to around 4.8 lakh votes. However, it now stands reduced to just over 1.5 lakh votes.

Not just this, even the absolute number of voters voting for Modi reduced from 2019, despite an increase in the number of voters who came out to vote.

Modi got 6.75 lakh votes when 10.6 lakh people voted in 2019. He got 6.13 lakh votes when 11.3 lakh people voted this time, reducing his vote share from 63.62 per cent to 54.24 per cent.

While BJP Kashi region president Dilip Singh Patel is set to organise meetings to review the reasons for a reduced margin, INDI Alliance candidate Ajay Rai is claiming "moral victory."

"Everyone has been campaigning for him and despite that PM Modi was trailing for three hours. He was sweating in winning by a margin of 1.5 lakh votes. The people of Kashi have shown that their support is with their brother (me)," Rai said.

The convener of his election management team, Surendra Narain Singh Audhe believes that this could be achieved by stopping the division of anti-BJP votes.

He said that in 2014, it was divided among four contenders (AAP, Congress, SP and BSP) and in 2019, among two (Comgress and SP-BSP alliance). However, this time all non-BJP votes went to the INDI Alliance candidate, he said.

Notably, Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and SP leader Dimple Yadav held a joint roadshow to campaign for Rai. This roadshow had gained traction and managed to gather a huge crowd.

Some political observers believe that Bhumihars, Yadavs and Muslims voted en masse for the INDI Alliance candidate reducing the victory margin for PM Modi.