Yogi Needs Brahmin Magic In Milkipur To Avenge Faizabad Loss, Can FIR Against Likely SP Candidate Help?

Uttar Pradesh (UP) Chief Minister (CM) Yogi Adityanath's efforts might not be sufficient for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to win the assembly by-poll in Ayodhya's Milkipur because caste equations will also play a key role.

The Milkipur seat was vacated by Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Awadhesh Prasad, who was elected to the Lok Sabha from the Faizabad constituency, which includes Ayodhya.

In the inauguration year of the Ram Janmabhoomi Mandir in Ayodhya, this loss became a prestige issue for the BJP, hence, Adityanath has taken it upon himself to avenge this loss by winning the Milkipur by-poll.

The UP CM has visited Ayodhya at least twice a month since the Lok Sabha loss. Last week, he launched 83 development projects worth Rs 1,000 crore in the Milkipur assembly constituency.

Last month, he distributed joining letters and 3,415 tablets to youths in Ayodhya. In his speeches, he consistently highlights the anti-Ram Mandir stance of opposition parties like the SP.

Still, Adityanath's efforts cannot guarantee a BJP win in the assembly constituency because the same poll-pitch around the Ram Mandir, could not help the BJP to win in the Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency.

Even when examining the voting pattern in the Milkipur assembly segment during the 2024 Lok Sabha election separately, Awadhesh Prasad secured a lead of nearly 8,000 votes over the BJP candidate.

To bridge this gap, the BJP will need to navigate the caste dynamics. In this context, a recent First Information Report (FIR) against Ajit Prasad, the likely SP candidate for the Milkipur by-poll, could provide the BJP with some leverage.

This is because the complainant, Ravi Tiwari, is a local property dealer from the Brahmin community. Meanwhile, Ajit Prasad, the son of Faizabad MP Awadhesh Prasad, belongs to the Dalit community.

Moreover, another accused in the case, Raju Yadav, comes from the Yadav community, traditionally a strong voter base for the SP. This could lead to Brahmin versus Yadav polarisation in this seat.

Tiwari has accused Ajit, Raju, and 15-20 unidentified individuals of dragging him into their vehicle, physically assaulting him, forcibly taking Rs 1 lakh, and threatening to kill him.

Notably, the majority of Brahmins are believed to have voted for Awadhesh Prasad in both the Lok Sabha and 2022 assembly elections. However, this could change if the BJP leverages the issue effectively.

The influence of Brahmins in the constituency can be understood from the fact that before the seat was reserved in the 2008 delimitation, many Brahmin leaders including two from the BJP got elected in this seat.

For nearly two decades, the seat was held by Yadav leaders, primarily from the SP. Awadhesh Prasad was elected for the first time in 2012 and again in 2022.

While the likely SP candidate, Ajit Prasad, is from the Pasi community and the potential BSP candidate, Ramgopal Kori, is from the Kori community. The BJP candidate has not yet been announced.

Pasis and Koris are the major Dalit communities here, hence, the BJP is most likely to choose a candidate from among them leading to the division of Dalit community votes.

However, consolidation of upper caste and Other Backward Classes (OBC) votes remains a possibility. If BJP manages to get Brahmins and non-Yadav OBCs on its side, it could potentially avenge the Faizabad loss.