BJP And Allies Could Win 16 Out Of 18 Seats In North-East And North Bengal Going To Polls In First Phase

The BJP and its allies are most likely to win at least 16 of the 18 seats that are going to the polls in the first phase on April 19 (Friday). 

Of these 18 seats, three are in North Bengal while the rest are spread over the eight Northeastern states. 

The BJP is sure to win the two seats in Arunachal Pradesh — Arunachal East and Arunachal West. The eastern Himalayan state has become a BJP citadel in recent years. Tapir Gao, who won the Arunachal East seat for the BJP in 2004 and 2019, is set to retain this seat. 

Gao’s prospects were boosted with Congress strongman Ninong Ering, who won the Arunachal East seat in 2009 and 2014, joining the BJP in February this year. 

Union Minister Kiren Rijiju, who won the Arunachal West seat for the BJP in 2014 and 2019, is confident of improving his 2019 margin of 1.75 lakh votes this time. 

In Nagaland, BJP ally Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), which also heads the ruling alliance (of which the BJP is a part) in the state, is quite sure of bagging the seat for the third successive time. 

The Congress, though being the primary opposition party in both these states, is very weak and political analysts say that it will be a feat if the party can even retain its 2019 vote share in the three seats. 

In Manipur, the Meitei-dominated Inner Manipur seat, and parts of the tribal (Kukis and Nagas) dominated Outer Manipur seat will go to the polls on Friday. 

Poll punters give the BJP’s Basanta Kumar Singh a very good chance of winning the Inner Manipur seat. Despite the ethnic violence in the state that has claimed more than 220 lives so far and displaced more than 55,000 people, and for which many blame the BJP, the saffron party’s prospects are good. 

That’s because, say, political pundits, the widespread perception is that the BJP is best placed to end the conflict and bring back peace. Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s strong assurance made a public rally in Imphal earlier this week that Manipur’s territorial integrity will be “maintained at all costs” has helped the BJP and sealed the support of the Meiteis who are passionately against any division of the state. 

As for Outer Manipur, the BJP is backing Nagaland People’s Front (NPF) candidate Kachui Timothy Zimik whose closest rival is Congress’ Alfred Arthur Kangam. 

Kukis, who form a large chunk of the electorate, are said to have decided to vote in favour of the NPF candidate who is a Naga. That makes victory certain for Zimik. 

The Mizoram Lok Sabha seat is the only one among the tribal states of the region that is likely to be bagged by a party opposed to the BJP.

The ruling Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) candidate Richard Vanlalhmangaiha is expected to win the seat, even though the fight with K Vanlalvena of the Mizo National Front (MNF), which is a constituent of the NDA, is a tough one. 

Former Tripura Chief Minister Biplab Deb, who is the BJP candidate for the Tripura West seat, is expected to post an easy win. Ashish Kumar Saha of the Congress, which is in disarray in the state, is a weak candidate and his prospects have been further marred by his party’s ‘marriage of convenience’ with longtime rival CPI(M). This Congress-CPI(M) alliance has not gone down well with even hardcore supporters of the two partners. 

In Meghalaya, the ruling National People’s Party (NPP) which is being backed by the BJP is expected to make a clean sweep of both the seats of Shillong and Tura. 

Chief Minister Conrad Sangma’s sister Agatha Sangma is the NPP candidate in Tura while state minister Ampareen Lyngdoh is the party’s candidate from Shillong. 

While Agatha is the daughter of former Union Minister and Lok Sabha speaker Purno Agitok Sangma, Lyngdoh is the daughter of Peter G Marbaniang, a well-known politician of the state who had served multiple terms as an MP and also as a minister of the state. 

The presence of a number of opposition candidates belonging to the Congress and regional parties in the fray in both the seats in Meghalaya is expected to make it easier for the NPP candidates to win the seats. 

Sikkim, which has only one Lok Sabha seat, presents an interesting picture. The BJP, as well as its ally — the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) — have fielded candidates. The SKM heads the ruling alliance in the state. 

The opposition Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF), which also has close ties with the BJP, is also in the fray. If the BJP wins the elections, it will be a direct gain for the party. But even if the SKM or the SDF emerge victorious, it will be a gain for the BJP-led NDA. 

On Friday, polling will be held in five Lok Sabha seats in Assam — Kaziranga, Sonitpur, Lakhimpur, Dibrugarh, and Jorhat. 

The recent delimitation exercise that created the new constituency of Kaziranga is a sure win for the BJP’s Kamakhya Prasad Tasa. The demographics of this constituency favour the BJP and Tasa is a strong candidate. 

The BJP is also sure to win the Sonitpur, Lakhimpur and Dibrugarh seats since the Congress, its primary rival in the state, is down in the dumps and has not been able to arrest its decline after the demise of party stalwart and former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi in November 2020. 

Also, the BJP candidates in all these three seats — Ranjit Dutta in Sonitpur, Pradan Barua in Lakhimpur, and Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal in Dibrugarh — are very strong candidates. 

The only constituency in Assam where a BJP win seems less certain is Jorhat. Tarun Gogoi’s son Gaurav Gogoi is the Congress candidate while the BJP has fielded its incumbent MP Topon Kumar Gogoi. 

Gaurav Gogoi won the Kaliabor Lok Sabha seat in 2014 and 2019. But after delimitation, Kaliabor has ceased to exist. Major parts of the Kaliabor seat have been added to parts of some neighbouring constituencies to create the Kaziranga Lok Sabha seat. 

But Gaurav Gogoi wasn’t very sure of winning the new Kaziranga seat because it does not have very many Muslims who form the core vote bank of the Congress. Hence, Gaurav Gogoi shifted to Jorhat. 

Gaurav is well-known and is considered to be a strong candidate. However, it remains to be seen if the Congress’ vastly depleted organisational strength in Assam can ensure his victory against a much stronger and muscular BJP. 

The three seats in North Bengal going to the polls Friday — Cooch Behar, Jalpaiguri and Alipurduar — are BJP strongholds. Union Minister Nisith Pramanik is expected to retain Cooch Behar while incumbent BJP MP Jayanta Roy is also expected to retain Jalpaiguri, though by a lesser margin as compared to his 2019 margin. 

The BJP, in a smart move, replaced Union Minister John Barla with Manoj Tigga from Alipurduars Lok Sabha seat. Barla had become unpopular and was facing anti-incumbency. 

Tigga, the incumbent MLA from the Madarihat Assembly seat (which is part of the Alipurduar Lok Sabha seat), is popular and hard-working. His rival from the Trinamool Congress — Prakash Chik Baraik — is not very well-known and lacks Tigga’s drive and charisma. 

The BJP, thus, is expected to register early wins from the 18 Lok Sabha seats in Northeast and North Bengal that go to the polls Friday.