Seven Factors That Will Decide The Election In Bengal This Time

Bengal offers the prospects of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) increasing its 2019 tally of 18 substantially, thus helping the party achieve its goal of bagging 370 Lok Sabha seats this time. 

The BJP is in an advantageous position in Bengal, but mainly because of the strong anti-incumbency against the ruling Trinamool Congress.

However, there are some issues where the BJP is on the backfoot. One of them is the perceived non-performance of some BJP MPs. 

But the BJP hopes to tide over this perception by making it a Narendra Modi versus Mamata Banerjee fight in which the Prime Minister has a clear advantage. 

Banerjee, on the other hand, has fallen back on the ‘Bengali versus outsiders’ formula that yielded her rich dividends in the 2021 assembly elections.

She is portraying the BJP as ‘outsiders’ and jomidars (landlords) who want to hold Bengal to ransom by denying the state its due share of funds. 

How Bengal’s 7.6 crore electorate respond to these competing claims during the seven-phase polls held under a security blanket provided by 65,000 personnel of central armed police forces will be known only on June 4. 

Here are the key issues shaping the Lok Sabha elections in Bengal:

1. Corruption and scams: The alleged involvement of top leaders of the Trinamool, including that of Mamata Banerjee’s nephew Abhishek, in the many scams that have rocked the state over the past few years will be a major issue.

The Trinamool finds it difficult to defend itself, given the recovery of huge amounts of cash and valuables from its leaders, and revelations of the wealth that Trinamool leaders and functionaries have amassed.

There are few takers for the Trinamool’s protestations that a vindictive BJP-led government at the federal level has unleashed central agencies to harass its leaders. 

People at the grassroots level see for themselves the wealth, including properties, that Trinamool functionaries have amassed and their lavish lifestyles. 

2. 'Denial' of funds by Centre: The Union government has, over the last three years, stopped disbursal of funds for various centrally-sponsored schemes because the state government has not provided proper accounts of the funds that had been disbursed earlier and also because of the various scams involving the implementation of these schemes in Bengal. 

The Trinamool has made this into a major issue by alleging that a vengeful BJP, after not being able to capture power in the state in 2021, is punishing Bengal and its people by denying the state its due share of funds. 

This campaign has been gathering momentum in recent weeks with the Trinamool holding rallies and demonstrations all over the state. 

The BJP has, strangely, not mounted an effective counter-campaign. 

3. Bengalis versus ‘outsiders’: This narrative worked very well for the Trinamool in 2021 when Banerjee succeeded in portraying the BJP as a party of outsiders. 

Banerjee has tweaked this narrative and is portraying the BJP as a party of landlords who extract money from the state but give it nothing in return. 

“The Centre takes away thousands of crores of rupees every month as taxes from Bengal, but gives us nothing in return. They (the BJP) are like the extractive and exploitative jomidars of the past,” Banerjee has been saying in rallies. 

The BJP’s failure to project a Bengali face to counter Banerjee has lent credence to this narrative among the masses. 

And with Prime Minister Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and other central BJP leaders slated to play a major role in the election campaign in Bengal, this narrative will only find more willing ears. 

4. Misgovernance versus doles: Faced with acute anti-incumbency due to her misgovernance and embezzlement of the public exchequer by her party colleagues, Banerjee has enhanced payouts to the poor, especially women. 

But these doles have not really calmed the unease among the masses over unemployment, the poor state of Bengal’s economy and the accumulation of wealth by Trinamool functionaries. 

The BJP has, albeit rather weakly, been trying to counter the handouts by Banerjee by highlighting the Centre’s welfare measures that people of the state have been denied of since their implementation in the state has been blocked by Banerjee. 

Banerjee’s misgovernance — her failure to get major investments, Bengal’s flailing economy, rising unemployment, breakdown of law and order and rising crimes etc — is being made a major campaign plank by the BJP.

5. Sandeshkhali: The land grab by Trinamool strongman Sheikh Shahjahan and his associates (all affiliated to the Trinamool) in Sandeshkhali with the alleged collusion and collaboration of local police and civil administration officials, coupled with allegations of sexual crimes against Hindu women by Trinamool functionaries, has severely eroded the image of the Trinamool Congress and its chief. 

The ‘shame of Sandeshkhali’ will have serious repercussions for the Trinamool across the state provided the BJP can keep up the tempo against the ruling party in the state and highlight the acts by Trinamool functionaries in that island (Sandeshkhali) in North 24 Parganas district. 

Also, the land-grab and exploitation of women are not confined to Sandeshkhali alone; there are many Sandeshkhalis across Bengal. A lot depends on the BJP’s ability to infuse confidence among Bengal’s masses to speak out against the Trinamool. 

6. CAA and Hindu consolidation: The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) will be used by the BJP to drum up support among the Matuas and among other sections of Hindus, especially those living in the districts bordering Bangladesh. 

These districts have witnessed huge influx of Muslims from Bangladesh over the years. This influx has been aided by the parties in power.

The increase in the population of Muslims in all these areas has resulted in growing Islamist assertiveness that has caused a lot of suffering and trouble for the Hindus. 

The blatant Muslim appeasement policy of Banerjee has only emboldened the Islamists to target Hindus. 

There is a strong undercurrent of anger against the Trinamool amongst large sections of Hindus living in the border districts. A lot will depend on the BJP’s ability to harness this anger. 

7. Electoral violence, rigging and malpractices: As in the past, the Trinamool will deploy its strong ‘election machinery’ to intimidate opposition activists, workers and supporters. 

The BJP, which is organisationally weak even in constituencies that it won in 2019, cannot counter the Trinamool on its own.

Thus, a fair outcome of the elections will depend on the ability and proactiveness of the Election Commission of India (ECI) to take strong measures against all forms of rigging, intimidation and malpractices (read this). 

A record number of 65,000 personnel belonging to central armed police forces (BSF, CRPF, SSB etc) will be deployed to maintain the sanctity of the poll process. But they can be effective only if they are allowed to act independently and taken out of the control and supervision of the partisan state police. 

All said and done, the BJP has an uphill task before it. The ground situation is fertile for the lotus to bloom in Bengal, but there are a number of boxes that have to be ticked by the BJP before it can bag more Lok Sabha seats this time than it did in 2019. 

2019 Lok Sabha Election Results

A quick look at the BJP’s performance in 2019 can provide a good perspective. The BJP won 18 of Bengal’s 42 seats in 2019 and garnered an overall vote share of 40.6 per cent. 

The vote share of the Trinamool Congress, which bagged 22 seats, was 43.7 per cent. The Left Front, which drew a blank, had a vote share of 6.3 per cent and the Congress which got two seats had a vote share of 5.8 per cent. 

However, the Trinamool was able to recover some of the ground it lost to the BJP in 2019 and swept the assembly elections two years later by winning 215 seats and a vote share of 48 per cent. 

The BJP won 77 assembly seats in 2021 (up from a mere three in 2016) and got a vote share of 38.1 per cent (an improvement of over 28 per cent from 2016), but failed to realise its goal of unseating the Trinamool from power. 

Physical violence against BJP activists, workers and supporters did play a role in the Trinamool’s victory, but the BJP’s organisational weaknesses and Banerjee’s success in painting the BJP as a party of outsiders were the major reasons behind the Trinamool’s success. 

Over the last three years since the assembly elections, the BJP has been able to mobilise masses in many areas against the Trinamool. But infighting among state BJP leaders, and the party’s inability to build organisational muscle in many parts of the state, remains its major weakness. 

Congress-Left And Muslim Votes

The Congress and Left have committed voters in some pockets of the state and the combined vote share of the two hovers around 8 per cent. 

Despite their discontent with the Trinamool and the knowledge that the Left and the Congress are ineffective against the Trinamool, these Left-Congress loyalist vote banks will not migrate to the BJP. Not in significant numbers anyway. 

Muslims form about 28 per cent of Bengal’s population and a large number from the community will never vote for the BJP. While an overwhelming majority of Muslims votes will go to the Trinamool, some of it will go to the Congress and the Left. 

The Trinamool also has a core support base, especially among women who have benefited from the state’s targeted welfare programmes. Though it is difficult to put a precise number (in terms of percentage of the electorate) to this Trinamool core support base, political experts in Bengal estimate that it can be about 10 per cent of the state’s non-Muslim electorate. 

Thus, the BJP’s success in Bengal will depend on its ability to mobilise the remaining 54-55 per cent Bengali and non-Bengali Hindu population who are not loyal to either the Trinamool or the Congress-Left combine. 

All this said, it must be noted that conditions in Bengal are favourable for the BJP. But the party will have to undertake a lot of hard work to increase its Lok Sabha tally from the state. Merely depending on Prime Minister Modi and his charisma will not do. 

The BJP’s ability to mobilise Bengal’s masses holds the key to its success.