Cold Turkey At The Ballot Box For Erdogan

But his party will continue its run for now

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, so the commentary goes, has faced a major electoral defeat. This is seen by many observers outside Turkey as a turning point for the country, presumably away from the warily anticipated slide into a steadily radicalising society and towards one that is, well, more like a member of the European Union, a group which many Turks aspire to join.

It is instructive though, to look at the reality on the ground. Erdogan’s Justice & Development Party (known by its Turkish acronym AKP) has won 41% of the seats in parliament, down from 49%. As “defeats” go, that is not a bad one. Recall that it is the first time in four elections that the AKP’s vote share has decreased. Political parties in most democracies would be quite pleased to have a decrease to 41%, after clear victories in three consecutive elections. (Consider, by way of comparison, the fortunes of our own Congress Party). At the very least, this is an indication that the AKP is the most well established party in the Turkey today.

The reason why the result is being portrayed as a defeat, more than anything else, is that it appears (for now at least) to curb the delusions of grandeur of the President. If the AKP had won an outright victory, Erdogan intended to rewrite the constitution to allow a vastly more powerful presidency with virtually dictatorial powers. That is not likely anymore, with the 86% voter turnout indicating that the majority of the people do not want a return to more authoritarian times. But, though improbable, it is not yet an impossibility.

That’s because the next government will have to be a coalition which is almost certain to be of limited political duration. As it is, there is no suggestion so far that any of the three other parties in parliament are especially keen to form a coalition either with the AKP, or amongst themselves. The Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), and the People’s Democratic Party (HDP) have together won 292 seats, enough to form a government, but the likelihood of them getting together is minimal though, again, not impossible.

On the other hand, the prospect of either the CHP or the MHP joining hands with the AKP cannot be ruled out, and seems the most feasible outcome. If such a coalition materialises, then the AKP will be very much coasting on the whims of its junior partner. This may explain why AKP leaders have expressed the view that a coalition government will not last long, and will lead to fresh elections soon. There is another problem: any one of the opposition parties choosing to form a coalition with AKP will risk alienating some of its own voter base. That’s part of the price the junior partner will pay for AKP being such a polarising force in society over the last decade. Neither CHP nor MHP may be willing to pay that price.

By law, Erdogan has the right to call fresh elections if a new coalition does not get a vote of confidence in 45 days. The catch is that new elections should be three months later at most, and the chances that the electorate will generate vastly different results are slim to none. That, in turn, means the best political option for AKP may well be to form a coalition and let it run for a couple of years by making the necessary policy compromises. Then, when the AKP becomes confident that its electoral prospects are better, it can let the coalition collapse and then call elections in the hope that the public would be fed up with the uncertain political environment in the interim and give them a majority. So the possibility that Erdogan may yet get his way and rewrite the constitution remains, although no one would bet today that the Turkish public will give AKP a majority again.

To some extent, a lot depends on what will happen next within the AKP itself. No leadership challenge to Erdogan seems imminent, though his deputy, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, may not survive the immediate turmoil. What seems clear is that political instability may be returning to Turkey after a decade long hiatus, and if the period of relative stability under AKP is on its way out, there is no indication whatsoever about what is on its way in.