Explained: How Xi Jinping's Decision To Skip G20 Summit In India Could Be A Face Saving Measure Amid Rebuke By CCP Elders

China on Monday (4 September) announced that President Xi Jinping will not attend the upcoming summit of the Group of 20 major economies in India, and Premier Li Qiang will be attending the event in his place.

This will be the first time that Xi has chosen to skip a G20 summit, despite consistently recognising its importance as China's top leader.

Xi's decision to skip the G20 Summit is likely due to what happened at the annual Beidaihe meeting, where incumbent and retired leaders of the Chinese Communist Party gather at the seaside resort of Beidaihe, Hebei Province.

While the details of the closed-door talks at the Beidaihe meeting are never officially disclosed, information about the discussions has started to emerge.

According to a Nikkei Asia report, this year's Beidaihe conclave had a notably different atmosphere compared to the previous ten meetings held since Xi became the general secretary of the party in 2012.

According to sources quoted in the report, during this year's gathering, a group of retired party elders criticised the top leader in unprecedented ways.

Xi later expressed his frustration to his closest aides, the report said.

The absence of the most prominent party elders was notable at the Beidaihe meeting.

Former President Jiang Zemin passed away at the age of 96 last November, and Xi's immediate predecessor, Hu Jintao, now 80, has rarely been seen since being unceremoniously removed from the Great Hall of the People at the party's national congress last October.

The absence of these influential figures may have worked in Xi's favor. However, the situation was not as straightforward as it seemed.

Currently, China is facing significant challenges. Its economy is experiencing a decline not seen since the inception of "reform and opening-up" in the late 1970s.

The real estate sector is in disarray, exemplified by the struggles of major developer Evergrande Group.

The youth unemployment rate has reached such alarming levels that Chinese authorities ceased releasing figures this summer.

The military is currently facing turmoil following the removal of two top Rocket Force generals, which became public knowledge in July.

There are suspicions and uncertainty surrounding the removal of Foreign Minister Qin Gang from his post, causing ripples of concern throughout the ministry.

The recent turmoil within the military has caused worry among the party elders who were in power during China's economic rise.

In preparation for Beidaihe, the party elders reportedly held a meeting of their own to consolidate their opinions before presenting them to the current leaders.

This meeting is believed to have taken place in the suburbs of Beijing.

Afterwards, a group of elders traveled to Beidaihe to communicate their consensus to the current leaders, including Xi. This face-to-face meeting reportedly took place on a single day.

The main message conveyed was that if the political, economic, and social turmoil continues without effective countermeasures, the party's rule could be threatened due to loss of public support.

The elders emphasised that further turmoil must be avoided.

Zeng Qinghong, a former vice president and one of the closest aides to the late former President Jiang, played a central role among the elders.

Zeng played a crucial role in paving the way for Xi, who was relatively unknown at the time, to quickly rise to power within the party.

Despite his age of 84, Zeng still holds influence within the party and has a wide network of personal connections. It is believed that following Jiang's death, Zeng has an even greater role to play.

This marked the beginning of a challenging period for Xi.

After facing unexpected criticism from senior party members, Xi sought solace with his trusted aides who he had promoted to key positions.

Reports suggest that Xi expressed his frustration and placed blame on his three predecessors - Deng Xiaoping, Jiang, and Hu.

Xi is reportedly believed to have said, "All the issues that were left by the previous three leaders are on my shoulders. I've spent the last decade tackling them but they remain unresolved. Am I to blame?".

He reportedly instructed his aides to take responsibility for resolving the remaining issues.

This outburst left his aides particularly shaken, especially Premier Li, who holds the second-highest position in the party.

Premier Li is tasked with managing an economy that is currently facing significant challenges.

One of these challenges is the deteriorating relations between the country and the rest of the world, resulting in slow trade and a sharp decline in foreign investment.

Xi's decision to skip the upcoming G20 summit in India may be an effort to avoid losing face.

It is possible that the discussion at the G20 summit will focus on China's economy and its impact on the global economy.

The inner circle of the CCP has likely concluded that Premier Li, who is responsible for China's economy, should attend the summit to address these concerns.

Xi's decision to skip the G20 summit follows another instance where he was absent.

In late August, after the Beidaihe meeting, Xi did not attend a business forum held during the BRICS summit in South Africa. Instead, his speech was read by Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao.

One interpretation is that Xi chose not to attend the forum due to concerns that he might face direct questions about the underperformance of the Chinese economy.

Another reason for Xi's absence from the G20 summit is the lack of progress in resolving strained relations with the US.

While there is optimism in Washington that US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's recent visit to China could be a step towards improving the relationship, the Chinese side does not share this view.

From Beijing's perspective, Raimondo's visit did not bring any positive developments.

Given that neither the US nor China are able to make significant compromises on important economic issues, it is difficult for Xi to justify a friendly meeting with President Joe Biden.

It remains uncertain whether Xi will be able to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in San Francisco in November.

If he is absent from the gathering, it would raise further concerns. The impact of Chinese politics is often surprising.

Just days after the speculated closure of the Beidaihe meeting, former Premier Li Keqiang made his first public appearance since his forced retirement in March.

The former No. 2 appeared at the World Heritage Mogao Caves, also known as the Caves of the Thousand Buddhas, in Gansu province.

He had a broad smile on his face, warmly greeted by fans who chanted "Ni hao [hello], premier! Ni hao!"

Li Qiang has now taken over as premier and will be attending the G20 summit in India in Xi's place.

However, for the people at the caves, Li Keqiang was still seen as their premier.

A video capturing Li Keqiang's visit quickly spread across Chinese social media platforms, but it was later deleted by authorities.

The presence of Li Keqiang at the World Heritage site was a significant and symbolic event, as he remains a popular politician. The cheers he received were genuine and not staged.

Prior to the Beidaihe meeting, Li Keqiang, now retired, attended a gathering of elders. His presence among the respected group was notable.

During the summer, Xi, who played a role in Li's retirement, was noticeably absent from public view. This absence was due to his preparations to address the strong reprimand he received from the elders.

This absence was due to his need to address the strong reprimand he received from the elders.