Here Is How Philippines Is Standing Against Chinese Bullying In South China Sea, And How Long Can It Last?

In the tumultuous waters of the South China Sea (SCS), the Philippines is making a bold statement against China's territorial assertiveness, determined to protect its sovereign rights and interests.

Just yesterday (22 October), a Chinese Coast Guard vessel, numbered 5203, collided with a Philippines-contracted supply vessel, blocking a resupply mission to a remote Philippines Navy outpost at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea.

Another Philippines Coast Guard vessel, escorting a separate resupply mission, collided with yet another Chinese maritime militia vessel.

The Philippines has been conducting resupply missions to a World War II-era transport ship converted into a military outpost, the 'Sierra Madre,' deliberately grounded in 1999 on the shoal.

Since then, a contingent of Philippine Marines has remained stationed there, asserting the country's claim to the area. China claims the entire SCS as well as the Spratly Islands, of which Second Thomas Shoal is a part.

Since then, a contingent of Philippine Marines has remained stationed there, asserting the country's claim to the area. China claims the entire SCS as well as the Spratly Islands, of which Second Thomas Shoal is a part.

However, recent events have highlighted the Philippines' strategic shift and its firm stance against China's overreach in the disputed region.

The Philippines has embarked, according to Colonel Raymond Powell of Stanford University's Gordian Knot Centre, on an "assertive transparency campaign" to expose what it calls China's "brute force" tactics in the SCS.

"I think we've seen a significant change this year. It's what I call an assertive transparency campaign," he says.

It has deliberately brought international attention to the contentious situation by inviting media outlets, to witness encounters at sensitive reefs, such as Second Thomas Shoal.

This new approach has taken China by surprise and, for a while, seemed to have a mitigating effect on Beijing's actions, a report by BBC states.

During this period, Manila managed several successful re-supply runs to the Sierra Madre, including reportedly construction material, like cement and scaffolding. This move aims to bolster the ship's deteriorating structure, demonstrating the Philippines' determination to maintain its presence in the region.

However, analysts suggest that China's long-term strategy may involve the erosion of the Sierra Madre, ultimately forcing the evacuation of Philippine marines stationed on board.

Now, a sense of urgency grips both nations, with the Philippines eager to safeguard its foothold and China determined to assert its dominance.

The Philippines' foreign policy underwent a dramatic shift with the election of President Ferdinand Marcos Junior, who reversed his predecessor's conciliatory stance towards Beijing.

President Marcos has renewed the country's alliance with the United States and raised vocal concerns over China's activities in the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone.

They have also been buying weapons from India, including 290 kilometre BrahMos supersonic cruise missile.

With the deteriorating condition of the Sierra Madre, the situation in the South China Sea is reaching a critical juncture.

If the rusting ship collapses into the sea, key questions arise: Will China attempt to seize control of the reef? Will the Philippines endeavour to ground another vessel on Second Thomas Shoal Shoal? And, significantly, how will the United States respond to this escalating situation?