India Likely To Surpass China As World's Most Populous Country In 2023, Says UN Report

India is expected to surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023, with each of the nation accounting for over 1.4 billion population, according to a United Nations report released on Monday (11 July).

The world’s population, projected to reach 8 billion on 15 November this year, could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100 in part due to increased levels of life expectancy, said UN's report on World Population Prospects 2022.

In 2011, India's population was 1.21 billion, according to the domestic census, which is conducted once a decade.

However, the 2021 census has been deferred due to the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic.

The world's population was growing at its slowest pace since 1950, having fallen below 1 per cent in 2020, as per UN estimates.

The world’s population is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100, the report said.

In 2021, the average fertility of the world’s population stood at 2.3 births per woman over a lifetime, having fallen from about 5 births per woman in 1950. Global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.1 births per woman by 2050.

“This year’s World Population Day falls during a milestone year, when we anticipate the birth of the Earth’s eight billionth inhabitant. This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

“At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another,” he added.

More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. Countries of sub-Saharan Africa are expected to contribute more than half of the increase anticipated through 2050.