India's Lesson From Ukraine: Watch Russia, Observe China, Aim For Atmanirbharta

In the ongoing political poker, everyone seems to have overplayed their hand, starting with United States’ President Joe Biden, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

A few days ago, the best minds in the geopolitical circuit would have betted on the crisis being addressed through negotiations which would have led to Ukraine accepting its fate as a buffer zone between Russia and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation), and consequently, Putin withdrawing his forces, in excess of two hundred thousand troops, from the Russia-Ukraine border. All proven wrong and today, we are in the middle of the biggest Eurasian crisis since the Second World War.

Attributing it to the West’s exceptional standards of integrity and morality, as witnessed in Iraq and Afghanistan, countries where the Americans have today installed thriving democracies after destroying weapons of mass destruction and eliminating the Taliban, the Western commentators are now asking if Ukraine posed any threat to Russian interests.

The rhetoric refuses to look beyond the Russian aggression, and no one wants to ask a few troubling questions, starting with why was the NATO egging on the Ukrainian government to distance itself from Russia.

Even after the fall of the Soviet Empire in 1991, why did NATO continue with its eastern expansion, right at the doorstep of the Russians. As much as everyone wishes to highlight the pro-Russian sentiment in the Donbas region, no one is willing to question the utility of NATO including the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland in 1999, and then Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia in 2004. As early as 2008, the Americans declared that Georgia and Ukraine would also be a part of NATO before Albania and Croatia joined the treaty in 2009.

For Putin, the threat came from three sides. One is the continued NATO enlargement. The mere idea of having NATO forces right at the doorstep of Russia threatened Putin’s core interests in the region. Two; the economic integration with the European Union of the states that carved out an independent existence after the fall of the USSR. In 2008, the EU came up with the Eastern Partnership Initiative to have states like Ukraine within the economic sphere of the EU, thus ushering regimes that are staunchly anti-Russian, the final threat.

Put simply, the Americans can usher thirteen days of global stress, citing the missiles installed in Cuba, or ravage the countries of the Middle East with no exit strategy on the cards, have a prolonged stay in the Korean peninsula, citing an imminent threat from North Korea, overturn regimes in South America citing the presence of the Chinese, but no other sovereign state has the right to move first to secure its interests, as India learned in 1971 during its war with Pakistan as well.

The commentators in the West have been quick to declare a Russian defeat, citing the fact that even after a week of the invasion, the capital city of Ukraine, Kyiv, has not been completely taken over by the Russians.

These commentators choose to conveniently ignore the American invasion of Iraq, one of the first such events to be completely televised, and how even the mighty powers of the West had to overcome resistance in a few scattered pockets of Iraq before taking over Baghdad. The same commentators had declared that the Taliban would fall in a year and were then stating how the US must negotiate with the terrorist group as late as 2021.

The sanctions have been quick, however. The White House has banned US citizens and organisations from dealing with Russia’s central bank, thus triggering a fall in the ruble. Major Russian banks have been cut off from the SWIFT payment network, a move that is both extraordinary and unprecedented, even if it came after much to-and-fro between the Americans and the Europeans, given the latter’s energy dependencies on Russia. To block Russian banks from SWIFT may appear to be bold, but it will only encourage the likes of China, and perhaps even Europe, to further invest in diversifying the infrastructure for global trade and finance.

Export controls are being announced, thus hitting Russian imports, and several companies, including Apple, Mastercard, Visa, Ford, Nike, Walt Disney, Warner Bros, Facebook, and Alphabet have disabled some or all of their services in Russia. For instance, while Apple has shut its stores in the country, the Big Tech giants restricted Russia Today, Sputnik, and other Russian state media outlets from its search results. Interestingly, the same companies bend to the whims and fancies of China, going back on their own regulations and principles. None of the Western companies chose to selectively apply their conscience when China, politically, annexed Hong Kong in 2021.

For Biden, beyond Ukraine, the imminent threat lies in Taiwan. A weak response to Russia’s threat in the early days of the crisis would have only dented America’s leverage after their misadventures and hurried exit from Afghanistan. Further, to not mobilise NATO, economically and politically, against Russia, after the events of last week, would have sent the wrong message to China which has been flexing its muscles for long in the Taiwan strait.

Observing China, the following possibilities must be factored in while watching Russia. In ascending order of potential outcomes, the first one is where Russians are defeated badly in Ukraine and have to move back their forces, losing whatever strength they had in the Donbas region. The sanctions keep Putin’s ambitions in check, and the might of NATO prevails. In the second scenario, the entire nation of Ukraine falls to Russia, and the Americans and Europeans are left with a new security order to deal with. Sanctions push Russia to the wall but an old sphere of power resurrects itself in Eurasia.

In the final scenario, the one most likely, the Russian military might overcome the Ukrainian resistance and push Zelenskyy to negotiate, thus ensuring the following- Ukraine being a buffer zone, outside the NATO influence, regime change, and permanent annexation of the Donbas region. Even though Putin’s endgame is not clear to most analysts, the two scenarios benefit the Chinese, from both an economic and political point of view. What transpires in Ukraine will dictate what fate has in store for Taiwan.

Some leaders want a Nobel while some want a legacy, and both Putin and Xi Jinping are pursuing the latter. Both draw the need to politically encompass Ukraine and Taiwan from the long cultural history of an old civilisation, and domestic security interests. However, to observe China is important to prepare for an economic disruption caused by a possible attack on Taiwan, and consequently, on the TSMC. Such a scenario would dwarf the current energy crisis and global oil inflation in terms of magnitude and longevity. It’s a supply-chain crisis not even the West is prepared for.

Yet, with all its political hypocrisy, military hiccups, and geopolitical haughtiness, this is not India’s war to fight but one where it must draw critical lessons for the future. With volatility in the stock markets and oil already surpassing the $110 mark, short-term inflation is inevitable and a steep hike in fuel prices post-March 10th cannot be ruled out. However, from a long-term perspective, India must invest heavily on infrastructure that cuts the dependency on oil. A no-brainer to begin with.

The answers to India’s many geopolitical conundrums lie in its untapped economic potential. As evident by the West’s convenient ignorance towards China’s Wuhan virus that killed millions, amongst its many other sins that include digital surveillance of its citizens, silencing journalists and media organisations across the globe, penalising companies that do not toe the line on issues relating to Xinjiang, Taiwan, or Hong Kong, and the eternal abuse of human rights across the country, geopolitics is a game that warrants the deployment of economic strength. Even with all the noise on tariffs, dumping practices, intellectual property theft, and shady listings on Wall Street, the West finds it nearly impossible to decouple from China.

The one critical lesson India and Indians must draw from the ongoing crisis is to embrace an obsession that pushes India towards becoming a $7 trillion economy by 2035, at least. The need for economic reforms, labour reforms, defence indigenisation, agricultural and other industry reforms cannot be stressed enough. Private capital and investment must be ushered wherever possible, and not demeaned. Infrastructure capacity must be amplified, for it enables an economy for the ones at the bottom of the economic ladder.

Drawing companies from across the world, aiding manufacturing and production in the country are only a few reforms amongst many the government must push harder for. If they can’t economically decouple from you, they can’t militarily cripple you, is what the contrasting reaction of the West towards Russia and China teaches us.

The pursuit of the $7 trillion economy goal, as emphasised by many policymakers already, must focus on Atmanirbharta. While Mastercard, Visa, and Apple Pay halted their services in Russia, citizens on social media hailed the UPI mechanism for payments, celebrating one of the early success stories of Atmanirbharta.

However, that is merely a drop in the ocean, for a lot more remains to be done with respect to social networking websites, data localisation, data protection, web services, and much more. What if tomorrow, in a conflict with China or Pakistan, India’s access to critical digital infrastructure is halted or blocked, or what if pro-India voices and channels are halted, ushering a misinformation spree in the hour of crisis?

Many observers have criticised India’s neutral stance in the ongoing crisis. However, India, in a multipolar world, is merely one of the power centres guarding its strategic interests and playing along with the realities of the day that are distinct from the realities of the Cold War era, even if it disappoints a few pro-American observers. This is not about repeating the mistakes of the Non-Aligned Movement but about catering to one's interests in a multipolar world where the sun of America's dominance continues to go down.

Going forward, India’s troubles won’t come from the Middle East or Russia or the United States, but from China, and as and when it happens, India’s geopolitical strength combined with its economic interdependence with Eurasia and America is what will matter.

Drawing lessons from the China of 1990s, India must strengthen its economy to further its geopolitical ambitions. While the end of the crisis remains unclear, India’s objective is quite clear- to watch Russia, observe China, and practice Atmanirbharta.