Nepal: With ‘Prachanda’ Winning Trust Vote, 'Beijing's Man In Kathmandu' Oli Left Out In The Cold

Nepal’s Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, more popularly known by his nom de guerre 'Prachanda' (meaning ‘the fierce one’), won a trust vote in Parliament Monday (March 20) evening. 

Though Dahal winning the trust vote by a thumping majority was expected, the development signified that his rival Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, chief of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist), or CPN(UML), has been left out completely in the cold. 

Oli, who is seen as China’s man in Nepal, has suffered a series of serious setbacks over the past three weeks since he decided to pull out of the ruling coalition that was formed only on December 25 last year. 

Oli, considered to be ambitious and power-hungry and also a wily politician, was outwitted by Prachanda in end-February and left with no option but to withdraw from the ruling coalition. 

His nominees for the posts of President and Vice-President suffered humiliating defeats last week and his party is set to be ousted from power in five provinces. 

Oli’s loss of political power and leverage in Nepal is a big blow to Beijing, which had tried its best to keep the CPN(UML)-led ruling coalition at the federal level intact. 

The CPN(UML)’s exit from the ruling coalition led to the entry of Nepali Congress, the largest party in Parliament, into it. And Prachanda, who has been betrayed by Oli many times, continues to be the Prime Minister. 

The background

The November 20 polls to Nepal Parliament’s lower house--the Pratinidhi Sabha--did not give any party a simple majority. The Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the single largest party with 89 seats, followed by the CPN(UML) with 78 seats. 

The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), or CPN(MC), headed by Prachanda came a distant third with 32 seats. The CPN(MC) had fought the polls in alliance with the NC, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialists)--CPN(US)--and the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP) and Rashtriya Janamorcha. 

This alliance was formed in mid-2021 after Oli was forced to step down as Prime Minister in July that year after his alliance with Dahal ended. 

The CPN(UML) and the CPN(MC), in a move brokered by China, had announced ahead of the 2017 parliamentary polls that they would be contesting as allies. 

This alliance won an absolute majority in the elections that year and Oli became the Prime Minister. The two parties coalesced into the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) in May 2018. 

Oli and Dahal had an unwritten arrangement under which both would share the five-year tenure of the Prime Minister for equal terms of 2.5 years each. 

But Oli, having ensconced himself in the PM’s chair, flatly denied the existence of such a deal and refused to share the top post with NCP co-chair Dahal. 

That led to a fallout between the two and despite its best efforts, Beijing could not bring about a rapprochement between the two. 

After Dahal parted ways with Oli, the NCP broke up and both Oli and Dahal revived their respective parties--the CPN(UML) and CPN(MC). 

Oli tried to cling on to power through various means and ultimately recommended dissolution of Parliament. But the Supreme Court struck down his bid to hold mid-term polls and Oli was forced to step down. 

Dahal joined hands with the Nepali Congress and other parties, and made NC chief Sher Bahadur Deuba the Prime Minister.

Meanwhile, the CPN(UML) also splintered with some prominent leaders breaking away and forming the CPN(US).

After the November 2022 polls

Though the alliance led by the NC and CPN(MC)--and comprising two other parties)--won a majority of the seats in the November 2022 polls, differences developed between NC chief Deuba and Dahal over the Prime Minister’s post. 

Dahal claimed that before the polls, he had reached an understanding with Deuba to share the PM’s post for 2.5 years. Dahal contended that since he had lent support to the NC and made Deuba the Prime Minister in July 2021, Deuba should let Dahal become the Prime Minister now. 

But Deuba turned down Dahal’s demand and protracted negotiations that stretched over a few weeks failed. 

Oli, sensing an opportunity and at the behest of his masters in Beijing, extended support to Dahal and agreed to make him the Prime Minister. 

Dahal then broke his alliance with the NC and became the Prime Minister. A new coalition led by the CPN(UML) and comprising the CPN(MC), the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) with 20 MPs, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) with 14 MPs, Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) with 12 MPs, Janamat Party (JP) with six MPs, Nagarik Unmukti Party (NUP) with four MPs and three Independent MPs, assumed power. 

But the coalition hit rough weather as soon as it set sail. Oli’s domineering attitude and his attempts to run the government by proxy led to serious differences with Prime Minister Dahal. 

Dahal got to know that Oli was trying to break the CPN(MC) by engineering defections within the party. Dahal also learnt that Oli was holding secret talks with some leaders of the NC.

Dahal realised Oli’s game plan: break the CPN(MC) and weaken Dahal, and then unseat him unceremoniously by withdrawing support to him and extend support to a government led by the NC. 

Negotiations between NC and Maoists resume in January

Soon after Dahal snapped his ties with the NC and became the Prime Minister with Oli’s help, some leaders of the NC and CPN(MC) realised that the continuation of a coalition with Oli as the de facto head would imperil Nepal’s interests and make it China’s client state. 

So they launched efforts to bring about a detente between Dahal and Deuba and revive the old pre-poll coalition. They convinced Deuba to vote in favour of the confidence motion moved by Dahal. 

Dahal immediately expressed his gratitude to Deuba and promised that the “friendly gesture” would be reciprocated. 

Senior leaders of the NC and CPN(MC) continued to work behind the scenes and in mid-February, Dahal announced that he would support a Nepali Congress (NC) candidate for the President’s post. 

Oli took umbrage and angrily told Dahal that he was bound to honour his agreement with the CPN(UML) under which the latter would get the post of President of the country. 

Dahal, wary of Oli getting too powerful and aware of Oli’s game plan to oust him from power, said he would have to repay the NC for its support in the trust vote. 

Oli had already got his nominee elected to the Speaker’s post and Dahal realised that if Oli’s candidate becomes the President of the country, all levers of power would be held by Oli. 

Nepal’s unsavoury experience with the last President, Bidya Devi Bhandari--she was a senior leader of the CPN(UML) and was made the President of the country by Oli--was fresh in Dahal’s mind.

Bhandari had bent Constitutional rules and norms to favour Oli and had approved Oli’s controversial decisions to dissolve Parliament in violation of rules. Bhadari was widely perceived to be Oli’s rubber-stamp President.

Dahal persisted in his resolve to support a candidate sponsored by the NC for the post of President. It thus became untenable for Oli to continue in the ruling coalition and he was ultimately forced to break ties with Dahal barely two months after he had weaned Dahal away from the NC-led coalition. 

After the withdrawal of support by the CPN(UML), the NC quickly announced its decision to back Dahal as the Prime Minister and revive the old coalition with Dahal’s party. 

The RPP and the RSP also left the ruling alliance in the footsteps of the CPN(UML), but the RSP had a rethink and voted in favour of the trust vote Monday. 

Apart from the NC, the CPN(US), the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP) and the Janamat Party (JP) have joined the new ruling coalition. 

The Nagarik Unmukti Party (NUP) and Rastriya Janamorcha are yet to decide if they will join the ruling coalition, but NC leaders are hopeful of roping them in. 

Nepali Congress (NC) vice president Purna Bahadur Khadka, who played a critical role in bringing about a reconciliation between his party chief (Deuba) and Maoist party [CPN(MC)] chief Dahal, told Swarajya over phone from Kathmandu that the present ruling coalition is strong and would last the full five year term. 

“There is complete understanding now between our party and the Maoists, and Dahal is our Prime Minister. This government will last its full term,” he said. 

Other NC leaders told Swarajya that Oli is still attempting to create discord between the NC and the Maoists. “But such sinister attempts will not succeed,” said Khadka. 

Dahal, immediately after winning the trust vote Monday evening, told reporters that he would start preparing for his maiden foreign visit to New Delhi immediately. That visit is likely to happen in April. 

UML blames India, US

Senior CPN(UML) leader Bimala Rai Paudyal told Swarajya that India and the US are to blame for her party being forced to break ties with the Maoists and for NC being back in power in the country. 

Paudyal, who was the foreign minister for the two months (end-December 2022 to end-February 2023) that the CPN(UML) and CPN(MC) alliance survived, said that the US and India encouraged Dahal and the CPN(MC) to break ties with her party. 

“Senior US and Indian officials met leaders of the CPN(MC), NC and other parties by breaking protocol without the presence of our own foreign ministry officials. What was discussed behind those closed doors is not known, but soon after those meetings, Dahal announced he would support the NC candidate for the President’s post. That led to the break in the alliance between my party and the Maoists,” Paudyal told Swarajya from Kathmandu. 

While those allegations cannot be substantiated, what remains a fact is that Oli is out in the cold and has lost all almost all his clout in Nepal’s politics. 

The bigger defeat is that of Beijing which has lost its leverage in Kathmandu with Oli being relegated to the sidelines.