Power Struggle, Succession, Or Simply Bad Weather? The Mystery Behind Iranian President Raisi’s Helicopter Crash

A helicopter ferrying Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi crashed near the Iran-Azerbaijan border.

Iran’s Vice President Mohsen Mansouri confirmed Raisi’s death along with his Foreign Minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, in the crash after the wreckage of the helicopter was discovered in a frantic search operation that spanned more than 12 hours.

Although the exact reason why the helicopter crashed is not known, one possibility is low visibility and bad weather. The area where his helicopter reportedly crashed is heavily forested, mountainous terrain that had heavy fog at the time of crash.

Iran is currently under widespread pressure, both from internal and external sources.

This crash could also be Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s way to consolidate his power as the Iranian state faces immense challenges, perhaps not seen since its reformative years after the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The country's economy is struggling, with sky-high inflation rates pushing ordinary Iranians below the poverty line.

Western sanctions have taken a significant toll on its economy as well as its oil exports. The masses have risen against the clergy, symbolised by the large-scale anti-hijab protests sparked by the killing of Mahsa Amini for not wearing a hijab, which were brutally suppressed by the Iranian state.

Externally, Iran has not been as vulnerable as it is now.

A symbolic missile and drone attack on Israel — its primary enemy — failed to impress and cause significant damage. Iranian forces' inability to defend against Israel’s counter-attacks highlights this vulnerability clearly.

Additionally, Iran’s proxies are under pressure.

With the Israeli assault in the Gaza Strip, Hamas has ceased to be an effective military force, aside from some capabilities to mount small-scale guerilla attacks.

The Yemen-based Houthi militia has shown its limitations in the Red Sea.

At most, the Houthis can launch long-range missile strikes on international maritime traffic, to which international shipping has adapted quite well by diverting through the Cape of Good Hope across the African continent. Moreover, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel are regularly being assassinated by Israeli strikes.

Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, wishes to appoint his second son — Mojtaba Khamenei — as Iran’s Supreme Leader, which may also be one of the reasons for this crash, despite his claims otherwise in public.

Khamenei has stated that nepotism in selecting the Supreme Leader is against Islamic principles, and that’s why he has proclaimed that he did not want his son to be the Supreme Leader, but he may be harbouring this wish in secret.

Ibrahim Raisi, who is considered a close confidant of Ayatollah, is also a top contender for the post of Supreme Leader. The crash could be another way for Ayatollah to clear a path for his son to become the Supreme Leader.

Regardless of the reason, a deeply battered Iran will remain in this tumultuous state for a long time to come.