Trump And Putin: The Most Important Set Of Friends In The World?  

Donald Trump’s shocking win over Hillary Clinton in the United States (US) presidential election on 8 November 2016 was greeted with unconcealed glee and elation by the Russian political leadership and people.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was possibly the first foreign leader to send a message of congratulations to President-elect Trump on his victory. In his telegram of felicitations, Putin expressed the hope that the two leaders could work together to end the “crisis” in US-Russian relations. He called for constructive dialogue based on “mutual respect and a real consideration for the other’s interests”.

Speaking later in the afternoon on 9 November at a ceremony of presentation of credentials of new ambassadors, Putin said that Russia had followed the US presidential election closely. Referring to the statements made by Trump during the campaign, expressing a desire to restore relations between USA and Russia, Putin stated that it will not be an easy path given the level to which, regrettably, relations between the two countries had got degraded. He added that ‘’it is not Russia’s fault that Russian-American relations are in such a state.” He declared that Russia will take all steps and do all it can to set Russian-US relations back on a stable development track. He added that this would benefit both the Russian and American people and would have a positive impact on the general climate in international affairs

Putin’s congratulatory message was followed up with a telephonic conversation on 14 November in which Putin wished Trump success in implementing his election programme. He added that he was ''ready to develop a dialogue of partnership on principles of equality, mutual respect and non-interference in each other’s domestic affairs.'' According to Russian sources, during the conversation they ‘’not only agreed on the absolutely unsatisfactory state of bilateral relations but also expressed support for active joint efforts to normalise relations and pursue constructive cooperation on the broadest possible range of issues.’’ They noted that 2017 will mark 210 years since the establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations which itself should encourage a return to pragmatic, mutually beneficial cooperation in the interests of both countries, as well as global stability and security. Putin and Trump spoke of the need to work together in the struggle against the number one common enemy – international terrorism and extremism. In this context, they discussed issues related to solving the crisis in Syria.

The State Duma (Russian Parliament) broke into a spontaneous, sustained applause when it was announced by Foreign Affairs Committee member Vyacheslav Nikonov on the morning of 9 November that Trump had emerged victorious.

Gennady Zyuganov, leader of Russia’s second largest party, the Communist Party, told state media, “I am convinced sanctions [on Russia] will be dropped completely,” speculating that Trump will recognise Russia’s 2014 ‘’accession’’ of Crimea.

The above sequence of events is the best possible beginning that the two countries could have expected before the new dispensation takes over in Washington DC on 20 January, 2017.

For several weeks before the election, many Kremlin officials and media had been consistently harping on the possibility of electoral fraud and conspiracy theories that would ensure a Clinton win. On 9 November however, several politicians and common people were jubilant as news of the Trump win started trickling in. After the results were announced, everyone in Russia appeared to have a high degree of faith in the American electoral system: people agreed that Trump won and came into office after free and fair elections.

Observing the mainstream media in USA consistently projecting a Clinton win, the editor of Russia Today initially tweeted “Democracy RIP” – but then quickly rescinded her comment when it became apparent that Trump had caused a stunning upset. Russian state TV similarly switched gears, churning out a narrative of American working classes flooding the polling stations and finally taking back their country. Russian State TV channels eagerly explained that Americans had voted for Trump “because they were tired of the anti-Russian attitudes of Clinton and the establishment.”

Trump’s statements during the campaign were often confusing and contradictory. But on Russia, he was quite consistent and clear. He regards Putin as a strong leader, worthy of admiration, and wants to see a sharp improvement in US-Russian relations. It seems plausible that Trump will clearly try to strike a deal with Putin. It is however anyone’s conjecture as to what the shape of the deal could be.

One possible scenario could be as follows:.

The US could end its opposition to Russia’s ‘’accession’’ of Crimea. Although America may not agree to the formal legal incorporation of Crimea into Russia, it could accept it as a fait accompli. Following that, the US could agree to lift economic sanctions. America could also abandon the idea of membership of Nato for Ukraine and Georgia. The build-up of Nato troops in the Baltic states could be slowed or stopped.

In return for these ‘’concessions’’, Russia could be expected to wind down its presence in eastern Ukraine and not attempt to make further territorial gains or claims. Russian pressure towards the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania could be removed. Military tensions on the front-line between Nato and Russia could be wound down. With their conflict in Eastern Europe eased, USA and Russia could make common cause in the Middle East. The US may drop its commitment to the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and agree to joint operations in dealing with ISIS.

Russia will be the big winner in this scenario. Such a deal will expose Europe to handle Russia on its own as the above course of events will represent considerable dilution of Europe’s and Nato’s clout in US foreign policy formulation.

The attractions of such a deal from Trump’s point of view are obvious. If it works, it would defuse an increasingly dangerous confrontation between USA and Russia. During his campaign, Trump had accused Hillary Clinton of risking a third world war: a reference to her promise to declare a “no-fly zone” over Syria, which might have led to confrontation between the US and Russian air forces. Abandoning the Obama administration’s goal of removing President Assad would also resolve the longstanding incoherence in US Syria policy, which sometimes seemed to place America on both sides of a civil war.

Reducing tensions in Eastern Europe would also be a significant achievement given that Russia has just moved nuclear weapons into the territorial enclave of Kaliningrad, which lies between Poland and Lithuania. Finally, the lifting of sanctions and the return to commerce as usual would appeal to the businessman in Trump.

Yet while the attractions of such a deal are clear, the potential pitfalls are huge. It involves placing a huge amount of trust in Putin’s willingness to keep his side of the bargain. Given the existing level of distrust between Moscow and Washington DC this might appear to be an unacceptably high risk to take. Most of the foreign policy establishment in Washington will warn Trump to be deeply suspicious of Putin and will argue that any American concessions will be seen as weakness and encourage further Russian aggression.

Over recent years, Syria, Edward Snowden and Ukraine have been three key problems in US-Russia ties.

While Russia and USA have managed to work together on issues like North Korea and Iran, they have openly clashed on Syria. Obama has also condemned Russia's intervention on the side of pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine, while Russia's decision to grant whistleblower Edward Snowden asylum has infuriated Washington.

Russia views America's new president as a pragmatist - a loud, impulsive businessman that Russians can do business with.

Thawing of relations between USA and Russia would be immensely beneficial for India. Russia has been wary and suspicious of rapidly expanding partnership between India and USA which has contributed to its warming up to Pakistan. This has been evident in the first-ever military exercises between the two countries held recently in Pakistan and also the first-ever supply of armaments by Russia to Pakistan. Improving US-Russia relations could be expected to provide a further strong impetus to multifaceted engagement between India and Russia.

Normalization of relations between USA and Russia and subsequent lifting of sanctions could significantly diminish the compulsion for Russia to draw closer to China for strategic comfort and for an assured market for its energy supplies. This would also have positive spin offs for India.

Coming months hold significant potential for improvement of ties between USA and Russia. There however needs to be greater clarity on whether Trump’s comments during the campaign represented mere electoral rhetoric or are indicative of a well-thought policy framework. Much will also depend on the cabinet and group of advisors that Trump selects to implement his policies. Next few weeks will hence be crucial to watch in this regard.