US Midterms: Republicans Look All Set To Win The House

The US midterm elections are here, and it seems almost certain that the Republican Party will pick up ground and Democrats will lose seats in Congress. 

Even though Biden is going around and telling reporters that he thinks Democrats are going to win.

There’s one simple reason: Democrats are doing a terrible job at acknowledging the economic pain regular people are going through. Inflation is the chief concern among voters across the country, be it Republican voters, Democrat voters or independents.

Not GDP, not the unemployment rate, but the real economy that people actually care about - the kitchen table stuff. "What's the price of diesel? Do we have enough of it? We don't? Why don't we?"

How are Democrats responding? "Economy is great, strongest it has ever been since the 2nd World War". These are actual words said by Biden, on camera.

Biden is at least doing a better than journalists who want the Democrats to win. "People never knew about inflation, no one even knew that word, no one cared about it, that word is being spread now.." is one of the 'gems' uttered by a MSNBC journalist.

Unsurprisingly, it has gone viral on Tiktok and most people on Tiktok are not ardent GOP voters but they do care about inflation. Turns out it really matters to people when the worth of the money they have goes down.

The Democrats thought they could win over the suburban vote, especially suburban women vote by focussing on the issue of abortion. It does not seem to be working.

"Vote for our party because we are for late term abortion," isn't the silver bullet Democrats thought it was, and it looks like GOP leadership, which was worried about Supreme Court overturning Roe V. Wade, was worrying pointlessly.

The economy and inflation remain the top priorities of voters this fall, a point that’s been pretty consistent in polls since summer. 

This opinion landscape in America should have focused Democrats on building their case on the economy and presenting a contrast with Republicans sooner. When inflation runs as high as it is, it makes incumbents vulnerable in America and in most democratic nations in fact. 

For much of this cycle Democratic candidates haven’t talked about working-class concerns.  Instead, they’ve focused on abortion rights, gun control, and safeguarding democracy, all important issues with some connection to working-class voters. But this narrative does not seem to have connected with these voters on a level that matters.

Belatedly, some Democratic voices have woken up and reminded candidates that the party needs to convince voters the party cares about their economic well-being.

Entering the homestretch of the midterms, President Biden and Democrats have taken to reminding people how Republicans will increase costs for American families, an eleventh-hour attempt that’s important to try but probably hard to convince people with as inflation hit a 40-year high this year.

Add to these economic woes the sky rocketing crime rates in American cities (mostly governed by Democrats), with a record hight 56 per cent of US adults reporting they think crime has increased where they live, and the optimism Biden has about the prospects for his party, starts seeming like disconnect.

The 435 House seats are seem like a done deal: Republicans are going to gain control of the House. It is not premature to state that.

The thing to watch out for now is the Senate. Out of the 100 seats, around 30 are up for grabs. Will the GOP be able to gain control of the Senate? That is the only question that matters now.