Trump 2.0 And What It Means For India: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

Donald J Trump’s victory in the 2024 United States (US) presidential election in a landslide has created history, making him only the second president to win non-consecutive terms after Grover Cleveland in 1892. Excluding domestic politics, it also has significant global repercussions as the geopolitical landscape is set to change once again.

For India, a second Trump administration presents a blend of continuity and potential shifts in strategic, economic, and domestic priorities. While Trump’s policies in the past often focused on securing US interests through hard-nosed diplomacy, his second term could see a more pragmatic approach to global issues, especially in the South Asian context.

Here’s a breakdown of what Trump's return could mean for India, from the worst to the best.

The Ugly — Visa and Green Card Policies

For the large Indian diaspora in the US, particularly students, Trump 2.0 could bring both opportunities and challenges.

During his first term, Trump’s administration introduced stricter immigration policies, including limits on H-1B visas and a tougher stance on international students. From 2016 to 2020, H-1B denial rates averaged around 18 per cent, compared to only 3.2 per cent under the Joe Biden administration. Similarly, the rate of RFEs (requests for evidence) nearly tripled under Trump, from around 12 per cent to a peak of 34 per cent.

This time, though, Trump decided to take a more relaxed stance on the same and declared that he will grant automatic green cards to all US college graduates, recognising the need for highly skilled labour, especially those emerging from Tier-I Ivy Schools.

The US may still provide opportunities for highly skilled Indians in select fields, but it’s unlikely that the broader visa system will become significantly more accessible under Trump’s leadership. In a second term, Trump may continue to tighten visa regulations, making it more difficult for Indian students to enter the US or stay after graduation.

The Bad — Trade and Economic Relations

Trade between the US and India will remain a focal point for Trump 2.0. The Trump administration’s first term was marked by a confrontational approach to trade, with tariffs imposed on India and efforts to balance the bilateral trade deficit. Trump, in numerous interviews, has called Prime Minister Narendra Modi a “tough negotiator.” In his second term, Trump is likely to continue pushing for reciprocal trade agreements that benefit US businesses, especially in sectors like technology, defence, and pharmaceuticals.

India's technology sector, a critical pillar of its economy, will be under scrutiny, particularly in the area of data privacy and digital trade. The US may continue to pressure India on intellectual property rights, market access, and regulatory frameworks that affect American companies, which becomes particularly crucial as Elon Musk is set to take centre stage in the Trump administration.

On the flip side, India’s expanding defence ties with the US are likely to deepen, with India continuing to procure advanced military technology. This will solidify the two countries' strategic partnership in areas such as cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, and intelligence sharing.

However, Trump's push for "America First" could still place India in a difficult position, balancing national interests with external trade pressure.

The Good — Global and Regional Security

Trump’s “America First” doctrine comes with another caveat: reducing US involvement in foreign conflicts.

As both Eastern Europe and the Middle East continue to have large-scale wars with a tremendous loss of lives, Trump might emerge as a critical negotiator who can strongarm nations to a consensus, including in the Russia-Ukraine War, as seen in his first term in his approach towards North Korea.

Trump's approach to Russia has often been unpredictable, and his sometimes favourable rhetoric toward Vladimir Putin could in fact help India’s balancing act between the US and Russia.

In recent times, Prime Minister Modi has been an eyesore for the Western liberal elite for ‘hugging’ Putin, first during his bilateral visit and second during BRICS Kazan 2024. Although Trump’s administration may push India to reconsider its dependence on Russian military equipment, India will definitely feel more relaxed pursuing defence and energy cooperation with the two poles.

The issue of Sikh separatism, particularly the Khalistan movement, has brought relations between India and Canada to a standstill after the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The US, until now, has decided to implicitly back their northern neighbour. They have also charged a former Indian intelligence officer for allegedly directing a foiled plot to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannu.

Under Trump, who has had a historically stale relationship with Justin Trudeau, the state support for Canada might decline. Trump’s administration is expected to take a harder line on supporting India's concerns about Khalistani elements in Canada, pushing for more robust action against extremist groups that advocate for violence. This would be seen as a strong gesture of support for India’s national security interests, aligning with Trump’s broader focus on curbing terrorism and extremism.

Trump’s strong stand on terrorism and emphasising regional stability can also be a boon for India as it grapples with the loss to a critical ally in the form of Sheikh Hasina due to a Colour Revolution in Bangladesh.

Muhammad Yunus was identified by Trump back in 2019 as being a donor to the Democratic campaign of Clinton in 2016. On Diwali this year, Trump also posted on X about the surge of “barbaric violence” against Hindus in Bangladesh under Yunus. With him as president, continued violence in Bangladesh could provoke a response from the US, with India likely playing a role in maintaining regional security.

As a strategic partner, India and the US may collaborate to counter China’s growing influence in South Asia while ensuring that the Bangladesh situation does not spiral out of control. In particular, Trump would likely align with India’s interests in preventing any rise of Islamist extremism or Chinese foothold in Bangladesh.

Concerning Pakistan, Trump's hard stance on terrorism is expected to remain unchanged. He has consistently criticised Pakistan for harbouring terrorist groups that target India, and his administration could renew pressure on Pakistan to curb its support for such entities.

However, Trump’s aggressive stance on Iran, including sanctions and withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), is unlikely to soften in a second term. This puts India’s involvement in the Chabahar Port project in jeopardy, as the US would press India to reduce its economic engagements with Tehran.

India, which sees Chabahar as vital for connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asia, may resist these pressures, but balancing this against the need to maintain strong ties with the US could lead to a delicate diplomatic balancing act.

The Best — Domestic Concerns and the Trump-Modi ‘Bromance’

While Trump has previously expressed interest in a solution to Kashmir, India’s firm stance on the region’s status as a domestic issue, particularly after the 2019 abrogation of Article 370, found support from Trump.

His preference for sovereignty and stability as President of the United States ensured that the US backed India’s unilateral stance on Kashmir, while Pakistan painted a bilateral colour during the abrogation. Thus, Trump’s administration will likely support India’s position, especially in the face of Pakistani efforts to internationalise the issue.

Similarly, while human rights concerns like the Manipur riots may garner international attention, Trump is unlikely to press India on internal issues if they don't affect US interests. His focus on maintaining strong bilateral ties with India will likely lead him to de-emphasise such concerns in favour of strategic and economic cooperation.

The personal chemistry between Trump and Prime Minister Modi is expected to remain a driving force in US-India relations. Both leaders share a populist outlook and a strong affinity for nationalism, which could enhance cooperation on issues like defence, counterterrorism, and economic collaboration. Both leaders have time and again praised each other, with PM Modi also being one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump on his victory, even before the election was called in his favour by most major news channels.

In the past, their camaraderie has been on display during Trump’s extravagant reception of Modi in Texas during the Howdy Modi event in 2019 and Modi returning the pleasantries in 2020 during Trump’s Namaste Trump event in Gujarat. Their personal ties can not just foster stronger diplomacy but also mean that domestic concerns, including human rights or civil liberties, may not receive the same level of scrutiny from the US.

Conclusion

Trump 2.0 is likely to result in a US-India relationship that prioritises strategic defence ties, economic collaboration, and mutual concerns about regional security, particularly in relation to Pakistan, China, and Iran.

While Trump’s administration may not push India on internal issues such as Kashmir or Manipur, it will continue to exert pressure on trade imbalances and regional geopolitical concerns. The global political environment under Trump’s leadership will present both opportunities and challenges as India navigates its position in a changing world order.

For India’s students, the path forward may be more challenging, with tighter immigration policies impacting opportunities to study and work in the US.

Ultimately, Trump's second term will likely see a continuation of his America First policies but with an eye towards strengthening strategic ties with India as a key player in the Indo-Pacific region, with his ‘friend’ Narendra Modi at the helm in India.